2013 Fantasy Football Sleepers
Some Underrated options by ADP
Sleepers are always an interesting topic. A few weeks back I posted some deep sleepers are the wide receiver position. Today I’m throwing out a few at each position and at varying stages of the draft to give you an idea of some of the players I’ll be targeting on draft day. The highest ADP of the bunch is Le’Veon Bell at 48 overall, so hopefully we can help you find some value here. I’ll have updated rankings and sheets tomorrow some time before noon. We’ll also be posting our final preseason rankings article for WEEI on Wednesday. Our RB rankings were posted today.
I'll have a lot more deep draft options in a few days when I release Part 1 of Drafting In Reverse, where I look at the undrafted players that shouldn't be undrafted as well as the late rounds of 12-team 20-round drafts.
All ADP Data was obtained at Fantasy Pros. The number listed after the player’s team is his ADP.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks, 73
We rank him as a solid QB1 and you can get him late. If I can be the last team to take a QB and still get Wilson, I am having a very good day. Wilson’s going a little earlier in ESPN drafts, for what that is worth.
Sam Bradford, Rams, 148
It seems silly to reach for my backup when I can simply wait and stock up at other positions and be rewarded with Sam Bradford in the 13th round. He’s surrounded by loads of talent and he’s got mismatches all over the field. If Bradford doesn’t have a career year in 2013 as we suspect he will, the Rams will be shopping for a new QB.
Brandon Weeden, Browns, 231
If you want to take your backup even later, you can usually get Weeden in the very late rounds. He wasn’t even getting drafted a week ago. He’s now going in or about the 22nd round. Weeden’s upside is described in my May article “Hello Cleveland.”
LeVeon Bell, Steelers, 48
Rookies carry extra risk and Bell’s ADP of 48 is a testament to that. The thing is, they are going to play him a lot and he’s a very well-rounded talent with obvious strengths. Bell doesn’t need to leave the field just because his team is behind. He’s a very good receiver with good hands and hips. It might be a surprise for such a big back, but it’s true. He’ll yield some snaps to Isaac Redman, but Bell should own the stripe. If you can get him as the 24th back off the board, you are a fantasy thief and congratulations are in order. ***UPDATE*** With Bell's recent foot injury, you should be careful with him until we get better information.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts, 62
He’s bound to move up boards, but right now I can get Bradshaw in the sixth round based on his ADP of 62. That’s really good value and a good way to ensure some solid early production out your RB2 or flex spot. Another perk with Bradshaw in larger formats is that you can often roster his backup, Vick Ballard, in the 10th round or so. Locking up Andrew Luck’s backs with a 6th and a 10th is good business.
Mark Ingram, Saints, 88
This guy was over-valued as a rookie and then again in 2012, but now that his ADP has fallen to 88 overall, he is a good value and a potential steal if he finally gets it going. The Saints look better in 2013 and that should lead to more goal line chances.
Fred Jackson, Bills, 121
This is mostly a warning for C.J. Spiller owners. As much as we love Spiller, it would be irresponsible if we didn’t point out Jackson’s ADP of 121. That’s the first pick of the 11th round in 12-team drafts. If I own Spiller, I am making sure I roster Jackson no later than round 10. Why? Because Jackson is so good, that he’ll replace a large portion of Spiller’s stats if he is forced into action. That is what you want from a “handcuff” option and he’s affordable.
Roy Helu, Redskins, 232
Helu is a very underrated player and he’s an outstanding way to protect yourself in the event of an injury to Alfred Morris. Helu showed that he has lead back chops back in 2011 before his Achilles injury. He’s healthy now and running well. You can nab him very late thanks to his current ADP of 232, but if I had Morris, I’d get him a few rounds sooner.
Eric Decker, Broncos, 57
The addition of Wes Welker has caused a lot of fantasy geeks to dismiss Decker. Despite finishing 2012 as a WR1, he is getting drafted as a weak WR2 with an ADP of 57. Decker is a very solid way to spend a 4th round pick and he’s a steal if you can land him in the 5th. Decker has gotten better every year in the league so far and we expect the trend to continue in his second year with Peyton Manning. I addressed this situation in depth in my May article Triangulating Manning’s Targets.
James Jones, Packers, 69
Stat geeks everywhere are calling for “regression” and that’s because Jones scored a lot of touchdowns last year. And hey, maybe regression makes sense when a guy comes out of nowhere, but Jones certainly did not. His situation in Green Bay has only gotten batter with the departure of Greg Jennings not to mention Jordy Nelson’s recent knee surgery. Jones will see the ball, folks. He’s a steal at his current ADP of 69.
Josh Gordon, Browns, 95
I can’t see me passing on a talent like Gordon. Not when I can get him at his current ADP of 95 overall. Yes, he’ll be out on a suspension for the first two weeks, but when he returns he offers close to WR1 upside and since I can land him at low WR3 prices, finding a replacement for the first two weeks won’t be difficult. I’m a buyer.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings, 129
So many high-ceiling receivers are so few places to stash them. If you’ve read our offseason content at Rotobahn, then you we like this kid a lot. He’ll take some time to fully emerge, but he’s a special player. I’m looking to add him even earlier than his ADP.
Michael Floyd, Cardinals, 133
While I like Aaron Dobson at his ADP of 128, I like Michael Floyd even better a few slots later. Floyd is probably going to be the clear number two option with Larry Fitzgerald drawing more coverage. Now factor in the addition of Carson Palmer at quarterback and you have a potential steal. Quite honestly, I wouldn’t wait until 133. I’m looking for Floyd a round or two earlier because he has a big ceiling.
Jordan Cameron, Browns, 162
He scored twice last week, so his ADP will surely rise, but he’s a nice value and we think he’s going to post TE1 numbers in 12-team leagues. The new offense being installed by HC Rob Chudzinski and OC Norv Turner is historically kind to the tight end position and we think Brandon Weeden can play as I mentioned earlier.
Robb Housler, Cardinals, 193
Housler is a guy we’ve liked for a few years and with the new look offense in Arizona, we think the stage is finally set for a breakout season. You can get him late and he might be all you need on most weeks.
Dwayne Allen, Colts, 198
His foot is healing and he should be ready for Week 1. Allen is a very underrated talent with a top flight quarterback to work with in Andrew Luck. He can probably be your starter in most leagues if he stays healthy. This is a guy I am targeting late for sure.
Zach Sudfeld, Patriots, 226
Sudfeld’s stock is most definitely rising and he is a very interesting option for those who have the guts to roll the dice on Rob Gronkowski. It makes sense as Sudfeld will get plenty of looks if Gronk misses games at the start of the season.
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