2013 Rookie Rankings: Quarterbacks
Dynasty & Keeper Rankings
Welcome to Rotobahn’s 2013 Rookie QB Rankings for long term keeper leagues and dynasty formats. This is a shift from how we’ve ranked the rookies in the past, when we’ve ranked them by their value in redraft leagues. It’s important for our long time readers to make this distinction. Obviously, we still rank the rooks for 2013. Just look to our regular rankings for that information and look for my Redraftable Rookies article in August.
The 2013 rookie QB class is not as good as in some years, like the 2012 class for example. Then again, this year's crop is a little underrated and is far better than say, the 2009 class.
The thing that most surprised us with this class is how many quality prospects were not even drafted. This group included some of our favorite QBs, like Matt Scott, Colby Cameron and Jeff Tuel. At the top of the class, you had guys slipping all over the place. There were guys that were spoken of as top ten picks who lasted until the fourth round, like Ryan Nassib and Matt Barkley. Geno Smith was talked about as a top-of-the-draft guy and he slipped all the way to 39.
At Rotobahn, we assigned ZERO first-round grades in 2013 ... not one. The best grade we gave was to E.J. Manuel, who garnered a high round-two grade. Next year will be very different with Teddy Bridgewater and perhaps Johnny Football coming out. It doesn’t end there. Taj Boyd and A.J. McCarron have NFL potential too, and there are others. The depth at QB in the NFL is already staggering and it’s getting deeper. That fact underscores the main point with the 2013 QB rookie class.... With a few exceptions, this is a long-term group. And with all the currnet depth at QB, there’s really not much to target in typical dynasty leagues.
I’ll be back tomorrow with the running backs, and I’ll get into tight ends and receivers this week as well. Also, check out my blog post on Tavon Austin’s redraft value that just went up as well as my take on Le’Veon Bell’s year one potential that I posted this morning.
|1||E.J. Manuel||BUF||6’5”||237||Florida State||1 (16)||When you consider just how good a QB needs to be to have fantasy relevance, Manuel is the only rookie QB that I’d be targeting in dynasty leagues this year. With his athleticism and all the speed they’ve accumulated in Buffalo, there could be fantasy fireworks at some point. And, for what it’s worth, we don’t view Manuel as the raw player he has been portrayed to be. He was a competent passer at Florida State. He’ll have a learning curve like any other player, but we like a lot of what we see on tape. Manuel could be a fantasy asset as soon as 2014. He could conceivably start right away, but more likely will appear later in 2013. He was easily the best athlete in this year’s class. He’s big and sturdy, but he’s also a quick-twitch athlete who could get a lot of free foot-points playing in Buffalo’s offense. The upside is legit. We had a 2nd round grade on Manuel for what it’s worth. He was our highest rated QB for fantasy purposes.|
|2||Geno Smith||NYJ||6’2”||218||West Virginia||2 (39)||What he has, is a line on a starting job ... that’s worth something. Geno is also a good athlete with a pro arm. He has a shot to put up numbers in Marty Mornhinweg’s offense. Of course, who knows what kind offense the Jets will be running in 2014 with all the flux in NY and with HC Rex Ryan in precarious waters. It could be ugly this season and we suspect they will allow Mark Sanchez to take the early beating. Based on his probable shot at being the Jets starter, Geno has as much dynasty value as any QB in the draft after Manuel, who we think has the best fantasy potential of the 2013 class. Smith could start right away, but we suspect he’ll see fewer than eight starts as a rookie. As I said, we like Smith’s fantasy potential in Mornhinweg’s system, but we’re not huge Geno fans overall. He played in an incredibly favorable situation at West Virginia and his stats are, in our estimation, not representative of how good a prospect he is. Yes, folks, having Tavon Austin helps and so does having Stedman Bailey. Don’t pass up on any good WR, TE or RB prospects to draft Geno Smith in dynasty.|
|3||Matt Barkley||PHI||6’2”||227||USC||4 (98)||He may be the best bet to hold the job long term in Philadelphia whether Chip Kelly is the coach or not. Health and surrounding talent are the keys for Barkley, who could post Matt Ryan numbers if he had the kind of team Ryan has in Atlanta. Few do, and Barkley projects as a long term QB2 without guys like Roddy and Julio. No offense to DeSean and Maclin. Barkley could start at some point in 2013, but has plenty of quality long term competition in Nick Foles.|
|4||Tyler Wilson||OAK||6’2”||215||Arkansas||4 (112)||Wilson has good arm talent and he has a line on a starting gig if he can outplay Matt Flynn and Aaron Pryor over the next year. Wilson has a good chance to be the Raiders' 2014 starter and have a solid career if they add some more offensive talent around him. The Raiders are a mess right now, but Wilson was a solid pick. He plays with confidence and has the guts to throw into small windows. Wilson could start games this year.|
|5||Landry Jones||PIT||6’4”||225||Oklahoma||4 (115)||He’s a ways away unless Big Ben gets injured, but we think Landry could be a very good one. When all is said and done, Landry Jones could still be the best QB in this year’s class. Now he gets to learn the pro game the way Aaron Rodgers did when he sat behind Brett Favre. That’s a good thing. Check out Jones’ scouting report linked below at the bottom of the page.|
|6||Matt Scott||JAC||6’2”||213||Arizona||UDFA||We like Scott a lot and were shocked that he went undrafted. He did get scooped up quickly and, in time, he could end up being the long term QB in Jacksonville. He’s a very underrated athlete with a solid arm and very good athleticism and agility. He could be the starter in Jacksonville by next year unless Blaine Gabbert finds his game in 2013. He’s the kind of quarterback that could fit into the Jags’ new system. He’s tough kid and he’s a leader. We doubt he plays much before 2014.|
|7||Zac Dysert||DEN||6’3”||231||Miami (OH)||7 (234)||The Broncos added quality competition for Brock Osweiler and are now very well set for the post-Manning phase of the operation, which is targeted to start in 2015. I’d consider Dysert in deep dynasty formats, especially if I was heavily invested in Denver’s QBs. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are still young. So are the backs and the tight ends. Not likely to play at all in 2013 or 2014 barring injury to Manning, but will battle with Osweiler for the long term gig. Dysert has nice upside potential and landed in a good situation, because he needs some seasoning.|
|8||Tyler Bray||K.C.||6’6”||232||Tennessee||UDFA||The guy was wildly inconsistent in college but he has a huge arm and can make all the throws. He landed in a perfect spot. With Alex Smith, the Chiefs can develop Bray for a year or two. He has the potential to play in the league if they can work on his feet and accuracy, which are obviously related.|
|9||Mike Glennon||TB||6’7”||227||N.C. State||3 (73)||Color us unimpressed. There is some appeal from an arm talent point of view, but we just can’t get past his lack of mobility and his deer-in-the-headlights moments, which were too frequent based on our film study. Glennon may make it if his team can run it and pass protect at a high level, but he’s going to have to really out-perform our assessment to be a big factor in today’s fantasy landscape. He’s not a player we are targeting in drafts. He needs a near perfect situation to be a big fantasy asset.|
|10||Ryan Nassib||NYG||6’2”||227||Syracuse||4 (110)||A tough break for Nassib, who is stuck behind Eli for the foreseeable future. I’m not a big fan of his fantasy upside anyway. Nassib has the make-up of an NFL QB, but lacks any special physical traits. He’s a nice add for those who want to protect their investment in Eli Manning.|
|11||Jeff Tuel||BUF||6’3”||218||Washington State||UDFA||If Manuel’s detractors are correct, and he fails, we’d expect Tuel to pick up the reins and have a very good career with all the talent in Buffalo. Having said that, we think Manuel succeeds and that Tuel will have to find success elsewhere or as a backup. We are very high on Tuel’s ability. Check out the scouting report linked below.|
|12||Sean Renfree||ATL||6’3”||219||Duke||7 (249)||He’s a backup to Matt Ryan and that’s what he’ll be for a long while. We like the pick by the Falcons. Renfree has some nice potential and needs time to learn the offense. He can make throws and played in a pass-first attack. He needs work on ball-placement, even though he completed a high percentage of his attempts. He needs work on decision-making for sure, but he’s a sturdy kid who can really throw the ball. Renfree is not a guy to target outside of really deep formats and even then, it would be a way to protect an investment in Matt Ryan, who is obviously locked-in with a long-term deal.|
|13||Brad Sorensen||SD||6’4”||229||Southern Utah||7 (221)||He looks like a career backup to us. He has good size and some arm talent and he’s feisty, which we like. He’ll have a few years to develop in San Diego, where there’s not much on the depth chart after Philip Rivers. I’m aiming higher in dynasty drafts.|
|14||Colby Cameron||CAR||6’2”||212||Louisiana Tech||UDFA||We would have loved to have seen Cameron, brother of Cleveland’s TE Jordan Cameron, land in a place like New Orleans, but he went to a team with a young stud ahead of him at the position in Cam Newton. Cameron is looking like a long term backup unless they cut him loose. We still like his ability. Check out our glowing scouting report on Colby linked at the bottom of the page.|
|15||B.J. Daniels||SF||6’0”||217||Southern Florida||7 (237)||An athletic QB out of South Florida, Daniels has the potential to be the backup to Colin Kaepernick if he really develops. Most likely, he needs to show some special teams chops to stick in the NFL. He’s not a player to target in long term or dynasty, even if you own Kaepernick.|
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