Beware of Overreaction
It’s just one game, folks. Don’t worry about the fact that you might be behind by sixty points before your team has even taken the field. Big games happen. Peyton Manning happens. Why they were throwing at the end of that game is another story, but it counts for Demaryius Thomas owners.
It’s a long season. If you are an Eric Decker owner, relax. He should have scored and the Ravens’ corners did a great job for most of the game until garbage time. That being said, my calculus for Decker could have been a bit off, not because of Wes Welker, who should help as much as he hurts, but by Julius Thomas, who could take a few scores away over the course of the year. Still, Decker will absolutely get his scores. If the guy with Decker is nervous after a single poor game, my suggestion would be to take Decker off that owner in a favorable trade.
There will be more disappointment this week and more adulation as well. Player’s will distort their perceived value in both directions and in some cases, to extreme degrees. Be mentally prepared. Don’t allow one week to skew your take too much. Understand what makes for a new trend and what is simply a single outcome.
We’ll have your back next week with our initial Waiver Wire and a trade market column. I’ll also have my first Start/Sit column of the year tomorrow up on WEEI.com.
So enjoy Week 1, but keep it all in perspective. It’s a marathon more than a sprint.
Here are a few quick observations from last night....
- I'm too old for football games that start after 9pm. No, really. I am.
- Wes Welker and Peyton Manning will get along about as well as we figured.
- Again, Decker had a bad game, but he was targeted seven times with a dropped TD. His line could have looked a lot better and you have to give the Ravens' CBs some credit.
- The Broncos backs were about what we figured. Montee Ball might be the goal line back and he looked better than Knowshon Moreno or Ronnie Hillman as far as breaking tackles goes. This one will take some time, but Ball should end up with the most value in the end. And, don't forget how brittle Moreno has proven to be.
- As great as Julius Thomas looked, don't forget that he had the best matchup all night along with Welker as attacking the Ravens' safeties and extra corners was Manning's obvious play. Lardarius Webb is obviously all the way back, so Denver won't see many CB tandems like that again in 2013. That's a significant factoid.
- For the Ravens, Marlon Brown was impressive again and he could have some legit value if Jacoby Jones' knee injury turns out to be significant.
- I've already read some over-reactions regarding Ed Dickson. Remember this.... He's a big athletic kid and he'd been our for weeks with a hammy. There was some rust and Flacco was not very accurate on a few of those throws. Dickson will get better and is still an asset in big leagues.
- Ray Rice is going to be a huge part of the Ravens' passing game. It's not news, but there was ample validaton of this last night.
- Bernard Pierce will be used enough to be a flex option in potential blowout games. They have no 3rd tailback, so he'll be the closer.
- Don't worry about last night. Torrey Smith is going to have a very big year.