DraftKings Week 3: Evolving Value
If you listen to the Fantasy Football Hour (as you should!), you know that Jim and I like to talk about evolving value every week. You can call it anything you like, but evolving value is just a way of saying mispriced player, and it’s usually related to injury.
A player who look like a waste of money on Tuesday morning can end up being the steal of the week if the starter goes down with an injury or perhaps there’s an injury to the player we thought would be covering said waste. For example, if Darrelle Revis’ sore groin causes him to miss this week’s game, we would say that Nelson Agholor has some evolving value. Don’t get too excited. Revis looks like he’ll be out there on Sunday, but there are a few other situations for you to watch closely for evolving value in Week 3.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets vs. Eagles — $5,100
No, I don’t want to make this move either, but there’s some sneaky value here. As my buddy Martin Frank points out, the Eagles are missing some big pieces on defense. Meanwhile, the Jets will be throwing the ball often with Chris Ivory nursing a groin that could keep him out of the game entirely. If that comes to pass, I expect the Jets to throw … and throw often—setting up Fitz as a high-volume passer who you can get just above the price floor for the position. It’s not the worst contrarian move out there, if you are looking for that sort of thing.
Devonta Freeman, Falcons at Cowboys — $4,600
He may not be a massive steal like some of the other guys here, but Freeman is a lock to start and Tevin Coleman has already been ruled out. Freeman has big upside against the Cowboys and makes sense in both tournaments and in head-to-head or 50-50 contests.
Bilal Powell, Jets vs. Eagles — $3,000
Powell is a sneaky play if Chris Ivory is active, but he is a must-start guy if Ivory is declared out. Powell will get 20 touches and he’ll catch some passes—perhaps a lot of them. Keep your head on a swivel here. Powell is a better DraftKings fit than Ivory is because he's a good receiver out of the backfield.
Damien Williams, Dolphins vs. Bills — $3,000
It’s looking like Lamar Miller is going to play, but if you are going to play a Miami RB, it should be Williams, who is a big savings over Miller, and is likely to be splitting time. Williams will catch more passes and he is the healthy player. Of course, the real reason to be paying attention here is if Miller ends up sitting out the game. In that scenario, Williams is a potential steal and will find his way into some of my lineups.
James Starks, Packers vs. Chiefs — $3,000
He’s a sneaky play right now, but he won’t be a home run unless Eddie Lacy is declared out. If that happens before the games on Sunday, you will want to get Starks in some lineups. It’s a no brainer.
Fred Jackson, Seahawks vs. Bears — $3,000
This is a dicey one because it’s a 4:25 pm game, but Marshawn Lynch is a game time decision. So there are a few points here. The first, is be careful with using Lynch. If you do have him in there, Jackson could help you if you need to switch Marshawn out. You’d gain 4,400 units making the switch, so you better have a place you can upgrade, and remember there are only two games that start after Seattle. Don’t wait too long on this one. One move is to put Jackson in your lineup and then switch him out for another cheap option if Lynch ends up starting. Both Starks and Damien Williams are good plays that you can move to at that time.
Devin Smith, Jets vs. Eagles — $3,000
For the risk-takers…. You want a deep dart throw that is highly contrarian and yet has a shot at posting some points? Meet Mr. Smith. It looks like Eric Decker is going to sit, and Chris Owusu is already out. The Jets staff has soured on Jeremy Kerley. So, while the entire planet runs to Brandon Marshall, and while the sneaky ones draft Quincy Enunwa, you can be different and play Smith, who will have an exposure level of less than 1 percent. Sure, it will probably be a waste a few bucks, but if he goes off, you have a very nice cheap tournament play. If Decker is active, do not try this, but if he is out, the Jets have little choice but to unveil their prized rookie, and trust me, this kid is prized for a reason.
Coby Fleener, Colts at Titans — $3,000
He will be close to an every down player this week due to Dwayne Allen’s ankle injury. Fleener obviously has a good rapport with Andrew Luck as they were roommates in their Stanford days. We’ve seen this connection lead to touchdowns many times in the past, so you have to like Fleener at 3,000 units. He will find his way into a lineup of mine this week. Maybe a few of them. It’s very much worth the risk.
Brandon Myers, Bucs at Texans — $2,500
With Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) out, Myers will start and he is available at the price floor. You simply can’t spend less on a player, and this is a guy who will almost assuredly catch a few passes this week and he has a chance to score. While I wouldn’t go building all of my teams around Myers this week, I will have him in a lineup or two.