Dynasty Update: Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
Jordy Nelson is currently one of the better values in fantasy football. That’s probably because he disappointed so many people in 2012. The thing is, last year is over and Nelson is now healthy. I like his odds of a bounce-back campaign in 2013 for a few reasons, some obvious and some not.
- He plays with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers knows how to use a weapon like Nelson and knows when they have somebody set up. It’s always good business to take WRs with elite QBs. That’s just common sense. Just look what a bad QB can do to the like of Larry Fitzgerald or Dwayne Bowe.
- With Greg Jennings’ departure, there are even more targets to go around than there were in 2012.
- Nelson’s ceiling is about twice what he did last year.
- Teams cannot lean on him with Randall Cobb and James Jones to deal with. He’s going to see plenty of single coverage.
- The Pack have added talent in the backfield and a better ground game will put extra stress on opposing safeties. We think they will run it better in 2013 regardless of what back they start. I like the top four guys on their depth chart. They all have something to offer.
- Nelson is what I call a hundred yard player--meaning he is always a threat in the Green Bay offense. He’s a big play threat from anywhere on the field. He’ll run the tough routes to get the tough yards and he’s also a very solid red zone option.
It’s all about a return to health for Nelson, and there’s really no reason to doubt him at this point. He was healthy enough to play in the Packers’ last game and his injuries, apart from the hamstring, were mostly of the nagging variety. Nothing requiring surgery.
Right now, Nelson is carrying an ADP of 48 in 12-team leagues. You can draft Nelson late in round four most of the time. That’s outstanding value. We’ll just have to see if it lasts. I suspect he’ll move up, but he looks like he’ll be a value on draft day. If anybody in your dynasty league is shopping Nelson, I’d encourage you to listen. He’s got WR1 potential in 2013 and the only way he’s not a lock starter is if he gets injured again.
Draft Nelson with confidence in all formats.