Dynasty Update: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy value is at an all-time low as he heads into the final third of his hall of fame career. This will present GMs with an very nice buy-low opportunity in 2013. Perhaps nowhere is this opportunity more well-timed than in dynasty leagues, where you have the age factor creeping in too, with Fitz about to turn thirty.
There are a few key points to make.
- Level of play. Fitz is still state-of-the-art. Make no mistake about this. All of his problems relate to the team he was forced to play with.
- With Bruce Arians in charge, we know the offense is in capable hands. We also know that the ball will be thrown down the field.
- With Carson Palmer, a solid veteran quarterback at the helm, Fitzgerald has his best chance at statistical success since he was paired with Kurt Warner. Palmer may not be sexy, but he hangs tough in the pocket and gives his receivers a chance. Folks, a real chance is all Fitz really needs. We also like the depth at QB, led by Drew Stanton.
- The receiving talent around him has improved. Michael floyd is a real sleeper and we love Ryan Swope, whom we think was stolen by Arizona in round six in this year’s draft. Fitz will see more single coverage in 2013 than he saw in the last three years combined.
- The offensive line. The Cards have upgraded the interior of the line in a big way and they do get some injured players back at tackle. Dealing with outside speed may still be an issue, but we suspect that the pocket will be more defined and will hold up better. Overall, the line play will be better if not good. This too will help Fitz on the outside.
- The running game. There is better talent and better depth in the Cardinals' backfield. The improved play at guard will help here for sure--opening things up downfield.
So, here’s the deal. If Fitzgerald is owned by an average GM and that GM is not particularly engaged, you might be able to steal Fitz right now. I think he has an excellent chance to post WR1 stats in 2013 and right now he might be available in dynasty at WR2 prices due to his 2012 stats and his age.
My guess is that Fitz plays at a WR1 level for a few more years. If you have a good team and a stud receiver would put you over the top, then Fitz could be your guy. Go kick the tires in dynasty and look for value when redrafts roll around too. He is currently being taken at thirty six overall based on data from Fantasy Football Calculator.