Is it time to deal for Calvin Johnson?

By: Pete Davidson : October 28, 2012 4:13pm

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Is it time to deal for Calvin Johnson?  This is a question that was posed to me the other day and it made me think. I own Calvin in most of my leagues and I am not at all considering trading him. Trading away my stud talent is not my way. Stud talent pays the bills in fantasy football, especially in smaller formats. But what would I do if I could deal for Megatron?

I think I’d have to do it.

What would be the reason for staying away?

Matt Stafford is a bit of a mess right now. That’s the only legitimate reason. The play of Stafford and the other skill players, more than anything else, has held Megatron down.

Two things on this.

First, Stafford should improve. We think he’ll get it together to some extent. You don’t need to be great to use Calvin Johnson. Second, if he really begins to regress, which we doubt, they will put in Shaun Hill until Stafford gets it together. And, Shaun Hill can get it done. Remember, the only QB who HAS thrown a score to Calvin in 2012 is Shaun Hill. Stafford has yet to connect for six with Johnson. And, not to get too far into speculation and gut feelings, this has the feel of one those situations where, once they break through, the dam sort of bursts. Scores could come in bunches all of sudden, and all it takes is one nice throw-and-catch to get it started.

So what are the reasons to make a deal?

  • He’s the best talent at the position in football. Of all the other receivers in the game, only Larry Fitzgerald and AJ Green get anything close to the kind of lopsided coverage that Megatron gets and that is the ultimate form of informed respect.
  • He’s basically healthy save for the knee, which is barking a bit but not seriously injured.
  • His schedule is nothing to worry about, and his second game against the Bears is off the fantasy schedule in Week 17.
  • His value is about as low as it can get without him being injured, and the whole idea when trading is to get players below their true value. Basically, if you want him, you won’t get a better chance.
  • The law of averages. Calvin Johnson is going to score ten times if he plays sixteen games. He just will. If I’m right on that, he will get you, on average, a score per game the rest of the way. A little more than that, actually.
  • He is past his bye week, which is always nice.
  • We are big fans of Ryan Broyles and his insertion into the lineup could help a lot. Nate Burleson and Titus Young really came up over the first half of the season and Young is starting to come on a bit now. That, combined with Broyels' presence could make a real difference in Detroit.
  • His fantasy playoff schedule is solid and he plays in good weather or a dome in weeks 15 and 16.
  • Urgency. The Lions are 2-4. They have tried being patient early in games but the only times they have had success is when they have gotten into do-or-die situations. Almost all of Stafford’s big plays have been very late in games when playing from behind. I think it’s time they started pushing sooner and I doubt they haven’t done the math on that too.

So yeah, I’d deal for Calvin. I’d deal for Stafford too for that matter and you can probably get him on the ultra cheap right now.  If they don't bust out vs. Seattle this weekend, next week could be the week to go after Megatron. 

As always, no player is worth adding at any price. Don’t go giving up AJ GReen and RGIII just to get Calvin. There is always a limit. Sometimes it’s more about what you can afford to give. Feel free to drop trade questions into the comment section of this post.

I’m doing a live chat at WEEI this morning at 11am. Feel free to drop in and ask a question.
 

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#1 from .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on October 31, 2012

Can you offer some names that would make sense to trade?  Players who’ve over-performed who have tougher sledding the rest of the way ... or other under-performing marquis players whom you don’t expect to bounce back?
thanks, Mike.

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