Buy Low Sell High 10/9

Buy Low Sell High 10/9

Trade advice
By: Pete Davidson : October 09, 2013 11:01pm

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Good afternoon all. I had bigger plans for today, but my youngest was sent home early from school with a stomach virus and ... there goes the day. I have a few buy lows for you and a few sell highs too. The Watch List update will have to wait for tomorrow, when I’ll also be posting preliminary rankings for Week 6.

Here’s a link to last week’s Watch List if you missed it. A few of the guys will definitely be moving up.

Buy Lows

C.J. Spiller, Bills

His closing schedule features some very enticing matchups and his price is about as low as it can get. The Bills know they must get Spiller the ball, but they also seem to be realizing that he’s not a workhorse back like Alfred Morris. He’s going to post RB2 numbers at minimum the rest of the way and he still has RB1 upside on most weeks. If your team is out in front, go and check out C.J.’s price tag before he has a huge game.

Trent Richardson, Colts

He’s certainly low right now and though I wouldn’t bet the house on Richardson, and, though I had my doubts about him getting significantly better as a Colt, he is talented and he pretty much owns the starting gig. No, I do not view Donald Brown as a TD vulture even though he stole one last week. Brown has also had a heck of a time staying healthy. Bear in mind that Richardson plays a rough run schedule. Do not overpay, but if you paint the right picture in negotiations, you might be able to get him cheaply and he should be a consistent source of points. No way is anybody that drafted him happy with that selection and now the shine is off the apple in Indy. I’d kick the tires on Trent.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

He’s struggling and his team’s getting mediocre QB play. Fitz’ fantasy owners may be willing to sell at a discount this week or next and we like Larry’s schedule over the second half enough to take the risk. He could easily be one of the best fantasy receivers from Week 8 on. Even if they bench Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton is a solid QB with a plus arm. HC Bruce Arians knows what he is doing. They will gets things cleaned up. Fitz should close things out as a WR2 at worst. If you can get him at that price level, I’d go for it. The guy could start going off at any time.

Lamar Miller, Dolphins

This one definitely requires a leap of faith, but there is little doubt that Miller’s owners are frustrated. If you can move some surplus talent for him and take his Week 6 bye in-stride, you may end up with a nice flex or RB2 upgrade down the line. Don’t give up anything from your core, but if you have some high-quality depth, I like Lamar as an investment. The likelihood is that his role will be expanded as the season continues to progress. He’s a true buy low and people love trading players during their bye week.

Calvin Johnson, Lions

Are you a risk-taker? With Julio Jones down for the year, Megatron owners may think they are next. He’s got a knee issue and he’s not practicing again this week. My guess is that Calvin’s going to be ok and close the season out as a WR1 if not an elite one. If you can get Calvin at a discount and your team needs a jolt, he’s a risk worth taking.

Vincent Jackson, Bucs

Maybe his owner is a bit panicked and maybe not. I’d endeavor to find out. V-Jax is a monster and I don't think rookie QB Mike Glennon is going to ruin him any more than Josh Freeman did. Glennon will probably take too many sacks and he may turn the ball over, but he can make throws downfield. We’ve seen enough of his college tape to know that. Jackson’s owners haven’t had much help from him since Week 1. They may not even remember that 18-point effort at this point. Jackson’s a good bet for WR2 value or better the rest of the way.

Sell Highs

Philip Rivers, Chargers

I don’t think Rivers is going to collapse, but there is a lack of depth now in San Diego after losing both Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd for the year. Another injury could prove to be a big problem. If you drafted Rivers as your QB2 and can move him for QB1 value, I like the move.

DeSean Jackson, Eagles

He’s a great player that’s playing great, but’s he’s a small dude and he’s always had trouble staying healthy. If you can move him and get value equal to his 2013 level of production, I think you are doing well. Don’t move him at a discount, obviously, but you should be willing to make him available.

Bilal Powell, Jets

He’s peaking. He’s a nice back as I said back in May.  Powell’s season is playing out about how I expected. Now that MIke Goodson is back and now that Chris Ivory is healthy, the Jets backfield is going to be a group effort. If you can move Powell and get RB2 value for him, you have to do it. No brainer.

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys

By no means should you force a deal here, but I am always worried about Murray staying healthy and if I can cash him in at RB1 rates, I am going to do it. Again, continuing to go with Murray is totally reasonable, because he’s a good back and he has a solid schedule going forward, but I’d definitely listen to offers and you are unlikely to ever get more for him than you can right now.

Knowshon Moreno, Broncos

Same deal as Murray ... times two. Moreno is posting top ten numbers and he hasn’t made it through an entire season healthy since 2009 and he only started nine games that year. He is playing very well, but his history says sell.

Pierre Thomas, Saints

If anybody in your leagues is foolish enough to buy into Thomas; recent run of production, then cash in now. PT is a fine player, but increased usage almost always lands him in the trainer’s room. His career high carry total was in 2009 with 147. He’s missed 29 games to injury as a pro.