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Buy Low Sell High 9/26

Buy Low Sell High 9/26

Trade advice
By: Pete Davidson : September 26, 2013 4:50pm

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Buying low and selling high. It’s the how you play the game when you are trying to improve your roster via trade. Sometimes trades are more logistical--team A has something team B wants and vice versa. Buying low and selling high is usually about two fantasy GMs disagreeing on a player’s value. In the best scenario, you have a GM that is too present-centric. 1-2 and 0-3 fantasy GMs tend to lose their perspective on underperforming talent. The idea is to strike while the iron is hot, because the same thing that makes a player a buy low one week, can make him an untouchable by next week. That one thing is an extreme performance in either the good or the bad category.

Think of a player’s value as the tide. It’s cyclical and you know it’s going to change. When the tide is out, the value is low and when the tide is in, the value is high. Now, when do you want to buy? Here are some players whose tide is out after three weeks of play. They are followed by some players who are currently at high tide.

If you have any questions about this or if you have a specific trade that you want advice on, feel free to ask them here. Registration is required to post, but it’s free.  I'll be back later today with the preliminary rankings for Week 4.

 

Buy Low

Colin Kaepernick

It’s amazing how quickly people jump off the bandwagon. It makes you shake your head sometimes. Just go back two weeks and read the things people were writing about this kid. I read descriptions of his game that fell just short of infallible.

Two bad games...One of which was on the road in Seattle ... a matchup that’s not happening again this fantasy season for Kaepernick. Last week’s game against the Colts was tougher to take, but there were some obvious extenuating circumstances, none the least of which was Vernon Davis sitting out with a hamstring. I’m not going out of my way to get ANY quarterback, but I am very ok with landing Kaepernick at a bargain price. If you are inclined to go after him, this is certainly the time. We have full faith that his value will come back strong.

Tom Brady

Obviously, he is going to get Gronkowski back soon, but there’s more to it than that. Gronk is no lock for long term health and neither is Danny Amendola ... whenever he returns. I like Brady even with the current group. They will continue to get better as the weeks go by. Nobody does week-to-week preparation better than Brady and the Patriots’ coaches. The rookies will benefit from this as the coaches and Brady continue to learn the strengths of these new players. New England plays a fairly tough schedule, so don’t go too crazy, but I am more than willing to roll with Brady as my number one QB in any format. Getting him in a deal right now works for me if I can get him at a discount. He’s Tom freaking Brady, people.

Eddie Lacy

He looked very good before the injury and I suspect that he’ll be the lead back upon his return. Lacy has RB1 upside in the Packers’ offense, so adding him while he is one the bye this week might be a very good investment. GMs might be looking at the success of James Starks and Johnathan Franklin and devaluing Lacy. If so, it’s an opportunity for you. Lacy is the guy in Green Bay and he can be a very solid RB2 for you the rest of the way.

C.J. Spiller

Spiller is a complex player to value. There’s no doubt that things are tough right now and Spiller’s owners are panicked for a reason. The thing is, it’s going to get better. Yes, the offensive line is not going to be fixed in full this year. Yes, Spiller has not run the ball as well as last year. Still, this is a supremely talented athlete who has been through the ringer the last few weeks, after having to cope with a mass shooting within his family. The fact that he’s appeared somewhat unfocused, is totally understandable. My guess is that he’ll come around and he’s still a solid weekly starter if not the top five back we’d hoped for. If he is being sold on the cheap, I am making offers for sure. Spiller’s value can be restored with a single breakout performance and that single performance could center on one big play. C.J. is fine and he is already practicing this week. He just needs a little help from his offensive line and his rookie quarterback.

David Wilson

It’s hard to imagine a more horrible season for a player without an injury being involved. Wilson’s usage has bordered on inexplicable. He was clearly the best back the Giants had in Week 3. He was running very well. His two best plays were brought back on penalties and one was a beautiful TD run. This kid cannot buy a break so far. My advice for those who own Wilson is to hold onto him unless you can get what he’s worth and we still think he’s an RB2 over the rest of the year. Not to say that he can’t be moved, but you are unlikely to get fair value.

For those who do not own Wilson, blood is in the water. It’s time to act like a shark. Check into Wilson’s availability and see what it takes to get him. This goes double for those of you in dynasty and long term formats. Wilson could easily have busted out last week. The ultimately nullified score was a turning point right up until the part where the flag showed up. The worm IS going to turn for Wilson. It’s just a matter of time. Don’t get rid of him on the cheap. If you don’t own him, I’d at least look into adding him.

Lamar Miller

They are splitting the backfield in Miami and it’s understandable to an extent, but why Miller has gotten such an inconsistent workload so far is tougher to figure. Still, common sense says that as opposing teams react to Miami’s tendencies, the running game will benefit. In short, Miami is throwing the ball often enough and well enough that teams cannot afford to load up the box against them. Miller’s value is very likely to rise. He’s a nice trade target if he has a jittery owner and he just might based on the way he’s been used through three games.

Chris Johnson

He’s been mediocre early on, as I predicted, and it could get worse before it gets better. The thing is, it WILL get better. Just look at the schedule. If you are in a position to add Johnson, just keep talking to the guy who has him and wait. He’ll panic soon enough when he realizes that CJ has Seattle and Frisco back-to-back starting in week six and that they have no good matchups until week ten. So why should you want him? Because you are a good team and because you will benefit from Johnson’s outstanding closing schedule. The key is to not overpay. Be patient.

Larry Fitzgerald

It’s all about the disposition of the guy who owns him in your league. If that guy is 1-2 or 0-3, you have an opening to add a WR1 and, yes, Fitz is absolutely still a WR1. He played through the injury and he is practicing this week. I’m adding Fitz if I can get him at a discount.

Roddy White

It’s coming. The Roddy White bust out game is coming. The ankle injury is obviously very real and it’s affecting his play, but in the next few weeks, we should start to see the same player we’ve seen for years and in the Falcons’ offense, he will post solid WR2 numbers. I’m adding Roddy if I can afford to wait a week or so and if the price is right ... and it may be.

Vincent Brown

With all the hoopla surrounding Eddie Royal, Brown is a bit of a forgotten man.  You cam get him right now for a song and he has WR3 upside in 12-team leagues.  I'm adding him as a throw in if I can do it.  Again, he should be a cheap buy and he has solid upside with the Chargers playing good football.


Sell High


Josh Gordon

This is a no-brainer. Yes, I was screaming for you all to pick this guy up over the last few weeks and this is why. Gordon has more trade value than real value right now. That’s the deal. Plain and simple. This guy is a monster talent, but he’s got injury concerns, character concerns and some mild quarterback concerns too. Do NOT just give him away, but if you can cash in on the hype right now, you might be able to turn a free agent addition into a solid weekly starter at a position of need. Josh Gordon for David Wilson? I’d do that in 2 seconds. Do you NEED to move Gordon? Absolutely not, but right now is a great window of opportunity if you ARE inclined to move him. That’s what selling high is all about.

Fred Jackson,

Jackson has gotten injured after fast starts so many times that I have lost count. Yes, he is a very good back, but he’s played partial seasons ever since he turned 30 back in 2010.  His value will not get any higher than it is right now barring a major injury to Spiller, but the current injury to C.J. is minor and probably won’t even cost him a game. Jackson is a 34-year old back on a team with a very shaky offensive line. The time to cash him in is right now.

Ahmad Bradshaw

He had a great game in Richardson’s first week in Indy, but the writing on the wall could not be more clear. The Colts just gave away next year’s #1 pick to get T-Rich. He is going to play and play a lot. There’s only one ball. The time to move Bradshaw is now or perhaps next week as Ahmad should still have a solid Week 4 role. I’d start by calling the guy with Richardson and seeing what a high-quality handcuff is worth to him.

Eddie Royal

This one is obvious. Royal is a proven player that is on a career-best hot streak. He is a great example of a sell high player. Don’t give him away, but you should be listening to all offers and including him in deals ... at his current value.

Danny Amendola

Yeah yeah yeah. I know. He’s low right now. The thing is, this is the time to get sober on this guy. Amendola might be back soon and he’ll light it up if he gets in there. Here’s my advice, and it couldn’t be more simple.... The next time Danny Amendola exits a game healthy ... deal him asap. I’ve been through this a million times with DA. I love the way he plays, but he breaks way too often.