Rotobahn

Buying & Selling 10/17

Taking a look at the market
By: Pete Davidson : October 17, 2012 4:36pm

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As we head into week seven, I’ve thrown together some players who are ripe to deal and some others who we think are ripe for the taking. With the bye weeks kicking in, trade talk is heating up too and we’ve got your back.  Jim Hackett and I discussed some of these players today on our podcast.  Check it out here.

Boilerplate.... As always, we want you to be mindful of value. Most of the time we suggest a player, it’s because we think the price should be friendly at the time we make the suggestion. We always want you to get players at a price that is below our projection for their actual worth. If a guy needs to be gotten rid of at any cost, we will certainly phrase it that way. The bulk of the players in our “Buying & Selling” space are not toxic assets. And, as always, I try to check the Forums as often as I can. Leave a question if you have a trade that you need a second opinion on. Be as specific as you can in terms of scoring formats and league size. Your roster is good info too.

PLAYERS TO DEAL FOR:

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens

It’s a projection, but we expect the Ravens to open it up a bit out of necessity now that they have so many injuries on defense. Flacco hasn’t been that great the last few weeks to put it mildly, and you might be able to get him cheap. This is especially true if Flacco’s owner has already gotten his QB1 past the bye. It’s a solid move if you lack stud talent at QB.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

This one takes some guts, but consider this, Stafford’s teammates have been letting him down often and he’s not been much better himself. The point is that he almost HAS to play better and the numbers almost have to get a bump. Here’s the kicker. The guy has actually scored pretty well since week two. He’s averaging a solid 20 points per game in performance scoring and even more if you get 6 points per passing touchdown. The likelihood here is that Megatron and Stafford get hot at some point and that means some 30-points games for the QB. If the guy with Stafford in your league has lineup problems, consider getting some trade talk going. As the overperforming QBs being to fade away, Stafford should elevate his stats.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

Here’s a standard buy-low opportunity. We expect McCoy to produce RB1 numbers between now and the end of the fantasy season. If he is available at a discount, we’d be all over that. It’s not like he hasn’t produced, but he’s had no big games and now he’s out on the bye. If you lack a true RB1, this could be your chance. Is the team with McCoy in your league struggling? This could be the time to pounce.

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

He looked good last week and we like his closing schedule a lot. We think he’ll post solid RB2 numbers the rest of the way and you can get him pretty cheap right now. Opposing defenses will be reacting to the downfield passing attack in the coming weeks and that will also benefit Martin. This kid is a good back and we see no reason to doubt him going forward. He looked fresh last week.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

His current numbers really don’t tell the story in terms of just how high his upside is. If you are in a strong position, this is the week to go after him. Once he is past the bye, he will be very hard to pry away from his owners. Thomas, playing with Peyton Manning, is a potential monster. Act now.

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

I’d inquire and see if he is available. AJ2000 may be a thing of the past, but he is still a talent and they are going to need to throw more now that their defense is a bit compromised. If you can get him at WR2 prices, then he is worth it in our view.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

This is for teams that got off to a good start. Jones is on the bye this week and this could be the time to get him if you can deal with the bye. We expect Jones to finish out very strong and have some big games.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

He is really starting to settle in, but the the stats are not eye-popping. Get him now while he is still available at flex-level prices. From what we have seen, Cobb has replaced Jermichael Finley and to an extant Donald Driver as Aaron Rodgers’ security blanket. He is even more desirable in long term formats and PR formats.

Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins

Players who post zeroes scare their owners and Hartline laid a bagel in week six. You might be able to get him as a throw in as part of a larger deal. We think he still has strong flex value and WR3 value in 12-team leagues as Ryan Tannehill has to use him as much as possible.

PLAYERS TO DEAL:

Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins

It’s about trading high and he has issues at receiver with Pierre Garcon trending very badly. And, as I said in our last Buying and Selling piece, Griffin also has rougher matchups on the way.

@NYG
CAR
BYE
PHI
@DAL
NYG
BAL (playoffs)
CLE (playoffs)
@PHI (playoffs)

We love the kid as we said in preseason, but right now, you might be able to make a great deal and set yourself up. If you do, you will have played RGIII perfectly by drafting him in the middle rounds, getting great pay from him and then moving him at his peak. He may not be the #1 ranked fantasy QB much longer, but while he is, you should shop him and see what offers you get. And, obviously, this advice is only for redrafts. You want to hang onto this kid in long term formats.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants

I got some funny e-mails from some of you regarding my advice on selling Bradshaw a few weeks back. It’s ok. It comes with the territory. That said, I’m going to double down here. First, you never give players away. All trades should be for players you want that will make you better. Second, the issue with Bradshaw is not about ability and stat potential, it’s about selling a risky commodity at its highest point. You have another chance to move him now and, unless you have David Wilson as a handcuff, you are at risk. Move him now.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets

He played well the other day, but if you look at his upcoming schedule, you really ought to consider cashing in on him right away. He wasn’t as bad as some were claiming, but last week was not a repeatable performance. His value has peaked in a big way.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

He’s a very good back and he will have a role. He may even continue to get half of the action, but he is back that needs some volume to have legit RB2 value. The even bigger issue is that CJ Spiller is younger and is doing more with his touches, so while Jackson may hang onto his share of the job, he also may not, especially once the Bills are out of the playoff chase. If you can get RB2 value for him, we would do that very quickly.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts

He just can’t get any higher than he is right now. Selling high is advisable as we expect teams to start taking Wayne away from Luck and forcing him to his secondary options. If you can find the right trade partner, you could make a very good deal. Cash in now and you really won bog on Wayne in 2012.

Wes Welker, WR, Patriots

Do not give him away. That being said, Welker never did anything to get benched in the first place, so having big games with Hernandez out was to be expected and doubly so after Edelman was injured. We think he is going to be fine, but selling high is the name of the game and Welker is peaking right now.  If you are loaded at receiver and need help at running back, moving Welker could make sense as he should lose some targets going forward.