Drafting In Reverse 2011 Pt. 3
The Finished Product
Welcome to the final installment of Drafting in Reverse. We’ve looked at the deep targets and the undrafted. We’ve assessed the second half of the draft. Now we look at the big picks in the first half and we look for some value.
There are plenty of draft targets ... and if you’ve been reading Rotobahn, it’s going to be a lot of the usual suspects.
Here’s a look at players whose ADP falls between 1 and 100. The ADP we’re using here can be found in updated form at Fantasy Football Calculator.
Here we go.
|9||1||Rashard Mendenhall||RB||PIT||It’s just a few slots, but we think he’s money anywhere after pick five.||RB1|
|13||2||Maurice Jones-Drew||RB||JAC||We have him higher, so we love him in any 2nd round scenario. He’s been moving well by all accounts.||RB1|
|15||2||Larry Fitzgerald||WR||ARI||Fitz is going to have a big year. He should be the 3rd WR off the board. He’s great value if you can get him anywhere in round two or even at the tail end of round one.||WR1|
|25||3||Mike Wallace||WR||PIT||We love this kid and we are far from alone. He’s good value here or a bit sooner.||WR1|
|32||3||Shonn Greene||RB||NYJ||He has risk, but his upside easily exceeds his ADP.||RB2|
|33||3||Ahmad Bradshaw||RB||NYG||He’s slipping, but he’s a great pick anywhere in round three.||RB2|
|34||3||Dwayne Bowe||WR||KC||He should be gone six to ten picks sooner.||WR1|
|39||4||Dez Bryant||WR||DAL||We think he has huge upside at his ADP.||WR1|
|43||4||Brandon Marshall||WR||MIA||This is a play-to-win pick. He has round one upside. It’s risky, but we’re cool with risk when the potential payoff is this high.||WR2|
|44||4||DeAngelo Williams||RB||CAR||Great value here and he’s not a 'reach' 10 spots earlier if you need an RB.||RB2|
|45||4||Tony Romo||QB||DAL||He’s a solid value here compared to any QB you would take sooner.||QB1|
|46||4||Ryan Mathews||RB||SD||We’d look at other options first, but his upside is legit at this ADP, since you’d be coming up with another pick in a few slots.||RB3|
|49||5||Santonio Holmes||WR||NYJ||He’s a steal this late.||WR2|
|59||5||Mario Manningham||WR||NYG||We like him a lot here.||WR2|
|60||5||Percy Harvin||WR||MIN||A steal.||WR2|
|66||6||Beanie Wells||RB||ARI||Good value. Injury is always a risk, but he OWNS that backfield now.||RB3|
|69||6||Kenny Britt||WR||TEN||Good value and monster upside, but understand the risk and build some WR depth if you roll with Britt.||WR3|
|78||7||Mike Tolbert||RB||SD||Very solid value, and reasonable to lock-up sooner if you have Matthews.||RB3|
|79||7||Tim Hightower||RB||WAS||He’s their starter right now, so this is a reasonable ADP.||RB3|
|80||7||Sidney Rice||WR||SEA||He’s slipped too far now. We understand the reasoning, but he should outperform this ADP.||WR3|
|81||7||Reggie Bush||RB||MIA||He’s moved up, but that’s because he’s looked so good. Back him up with Daniel Thomas or build some depth as Bush is easily injured.||RB3|
|83||7||Pierre Garcon||WR||IND||His upside easily merits a selection at this ADP.||WR3|
|87||8||Santana Moss||WR||WAS||A great way to fill your WR3 spot fairly late.||WR3|
|88||8||Josh Freeman||QB||TB||We like Freeman here.||QB1|
|89||8||Matthew Stafford||QB||DET||Stafford needs to be backed up with a strong option, but he’s good value right around here.||QB1|
|90||8||Pierre Thomas||RB||NO||He’s better value than Ingram right now.||RB4|
|91||8||Brandon Jacobs||RB||NYG||This ADP makes him a solid target on draft day.||RB4|
|92||8||Mike Sims-Walker||WR||STL||He could be their number one, so he’s worth the substantial risk this late.||WR4|
|93||8||Steve Smith||WR||CAR||Draft him this late and be happy.||WR3|
|94||8||A.J. Green||WR||CIN||Serious upside this late.||WR3|
The news is pretty good. There seem to be plenty of targets in most zones of the draft. Of course, we always want more, but we can construct a very good team from most draft positions.
We like the idea of nabbing Romo if he slips into round five. For those folks with top picks, you might be able to reverse it and take him at the end of round four, depending on what you forecast to make it “around the bend.”
It should be fairly easy to get value with two backs and two receivers with picks one through four. If you see the kind of value in round four to go QB early, go for it, but assess what you’ll get in round five before you make the move as there will be a price to pay.
We see a clear drop-off at RB once you get past DeAngelo Williams. Waiting until round five to fill your RB2 is a risky proposition. You’ll need to invest some extra picks on RBs if you end up going that way.
Based on our breakdown of draft patterns and ADP, we are liking the Draft Plans that we released last week. We encourage you to try them out.
Here’s what team Rotobahn looks like now.
There it is. That's a team that the current ADP trend would allow us to draft in an average league. We'd be happy to own that team and it's a realistic outcome if you play in a typical league. In a league with savvy owners throughout, you might lose a few of those sleepers. For that reason, you might jump up proactively in the second half of the draft to make sure you get some of your key targets. Still, this is representative based on current numbers.
And, if you go back and look at Part 1, you’ll see that there are planty of other nice sleeper targets to fall back on.
There is depth. Use it to your advantage. Get the players you need while they are still available. Construct a draft plan that allows you to get what you need AND take advantage of the deeper areas of the talent pool.
Good luck this weekend with your drafts, and for those of you on the East Coast, like us, good luck with the storm.
Go get ‘em!
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