Rotobahn

Drafting In Reverse 2011 Pt. 3

The Finished Product
By: Pete Davidson : August 26, 2011 11:28am

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Welcome to the final installment of Drafting in Reverse. We’ve looked at the deep targets and the undrafted. We’ve assessed the second half of the draft. Now we look at the big picks in the first half and we look for some value.

There are plenty of draft targets ... and if you’ve been reading Rotobahn, it’s going to be a lot of the usual suspects.

Here’s a look at players whose ADP falls between 1 and 100. The ADP we’re using here can be found in updated form at Fantasy Football Calculator.

Here we go.

ADP	Round	PLAYER	POS	TEAM	THE SKINNY	Usage
9	1	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	PIT	It’s just a few slots, but we think he’s money anywhere after pick five.	RB1
13	2	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	JAC	We have him higher, so we love him in any 2nd round scenario. He’s been moving well by all accounts.	RB1
15	2	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	Fitz is going to have a big year. He should be the 3rd WR off the board. He’s great value if you can get him anywhere in round two or even at the tail end of round one.	WR1
25	3	Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	We love this kid and we are far from alone. He’s good value here or a bit sooner.	WR1
32	3	Shonn Greene	RB	NYJ	He has risk, but his upside easily exceeds his ADP.	RB2
33	3	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	NYG	He’s slipping, but he’s a great pick anywhere in round three.	RB2
34	3	Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	He should be gone six to ten picks sooner.	WR1
39	4	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	We think he has huge upside at his ADP.	WR1
43	4	Brandon Marshall	WR	MIA	This is a play-to-win pick. He has round one upside. It’s risky, but we’re cool with risk when the potential payoff is this high.	WR2
44	4	DeAngelo Williams	RB	CAR	Great value here and he’s not a 'reach' 10 spots earlier if you need an RB.	RB2
45	4	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	He’s a solid value here compared to any QB you would take sooner.	QB1
46	4	Ryan Mathews	RB	SD	We’d look at other options first, but his upside is legit at this ADP, since you’d be coming up with another pick in a few slots.	RB3
49	5	Santonio Holmes	WR	NYJ	He’s a steal this late.	WR2
59	5	Mario Manningham	WR	NYG	We like him a lot here.	WR2
60	5	Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	A steal.	WR2
66	6	Beanie Wells	RB	ARI	Good value. Injury is always a risk, but he OWNS that backfield now.	RB3
69	6	Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	Good value and monster upside, but understand the risk and build some WR depth if you roll with Britt.	WR3
78	7	Mike Tolbert	RB	SD	Very solid value, and reasonable to lock-up sooner if you have Matthews.	RB3
79	7	Tim Hightower	RB	WAS	He’s their starter right now, so this is a reasonable ADP.	RB3
80	7	Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	He’s slipped too far now. We understand the reasoning, but he should outperform this ADP.	WR3
81	7	Reggie Bush	RB	MIA	He’s moved up, but that’s because he’s looked so good. Back him up with Daniel Thomas or build some depth as Bush is easily injured.	RB3
83	7	Pierre Garcon	WR	IND	His upside easily merits a selection at this ADP.	WR3
87	8	Santana Moss	WR	WAS	A great way to fill your WR3 spot fairly late.	WR3
88	8	Josh Freeman	QB	TB	We like Freeman here.	QB1
89	8	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	Stafford needs to be backed up with a strong option, but he’s good value right around here.	QB1
90	8	Pierre Thomas	RB	NO	He’s better value than Ingram right now.	RB4
91	8	Brandon Jacobs	RB	NYG	This ADP makes him a solid target on draft day.	RB4
92	8	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	STL	He could be their number one, so he’s worth the substantial risk this late.	WR4
93	8	Steve Smith	WR	CAR	Draft him this late and be happy.	WR3
94	8	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	Serious upside this late.	WR3

 

 

The news is pretty good. There seem to be plenty of targets in most zones of the draft. Of course, we always want more, but we can construct a very good team from most draft positions.

We like the idea of nabbing Romo if he slips into round five. For those folks with top picks, you might be able to reverse it and take him at the end of round four, depending on what you forecast to make it “around the bend.”

It should be fairly easy to get value with two backs and two receivers with picks one through four. If you see the kind of value in round four to go QB early, go for it, but assess what you’ll get in round five before you make the move as there will be a price to pay.

We see a clear drop-off at RB once you get past DeAngelo Williams. Waiting until round five to fill your RB2 is a risky proposition. You’ll need to invest some extra picks on RBs if you end up going that way.

Based on our breakdown of draft patterns and ADP, we are liking the Draft Plans that we released last week. We encourage you to try them out.

Here’s what team Rotobahn looks like now.

RD	Player	POS	TEAM
1	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	PIT
2	Mike Wallace	WR	PIT
3	Shonn Greene	RB	NYJ
4	Brandon Marshall	WR	MIA
5	Tony Romo	QB	DAL
6	Beanie Wells	RB	ARI
7	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO
8	Matt Stafford	QB	DET
9	James Starks	RB	GB
10	Jacoby Ford	WR	OAK
11	Roy Helu	RB	WAS
12	Greg Little	WR	CLE
13	Delone Carter	RB	IND
14	Denarius Moore	WR	OAK
15	DeMarco Murray	RB	DAL
16	Kendall Hunter	RB	SF
17	Cowboys	DEF	DAL
18	Cecil Shorts	WR	JAC
19	Fred Davis	TE	WAS
20	Garrett Hartley	K	NO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There it is.  That's a team that the current ADP trend would allow us to draft in an average league.  We'd be happy to own that team and it's a realistic outcome if you play in a typical league.  In a league with savvy owners throughout, you might lose a few of those sleepers. For that reason, you might jump up proactively in the second half of the draft to make sure you get some of your key targets. Still, this is representative based on current numbers.

And, if you go back and look at Part 1, you’ll see that there are planty of other nice sleeper targets to fall back on.

There is depth. Use it to your advantage. Get the players you need while they are still available. Construct a draft plan that allows you to get what you need AND take advantage of the deeper areas of the talent pool.

Good luck this weekend with your drafts, and for those of you on the East Coast, like us, good luck with the storm.

Go get ‘em!