Drafting In Reverse 2013 Pt. 2
A look at players 101-200
Welcome to part two of Drafting In Reverse. If you missed my initial installment, you can check it out here. In part two, I’ll be breaking down players with ADPs between 101 and 200 in reverse order and then we’ll analyze what we find. The players listed are the ones we think represent the best value. Most of the guys with ADPs over 150 can actually be taken a round or so ahead of their ADP and still give you nice value. There are plenty of mis-priced players right now.
Jon Baldwin, WR, 49ers, 199
He has too much talent for me to pass him up here unless a player I like even more is still on the board. He’s not stuck in K.C. anymore and he still has a ton of talent. If the light goes on in the next few weeks, he could land a significant role ... and he’s a red option.
Zac Stacy, RB, Rams 196
Stacy is trending down in terms of ADP and that smells like opportunity to me. We are fans of all three St. Louis backs as I’ve said repeatedly, but Stacy is the one capable of being a 3-down guy. I like the idea of taking Stacy at his ADP which puts him in the 17th round. Plenty of upside with scant risk.
Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals, 194
Housler is slipping due to fears that Bruce Arians won’t use the tight end. I’m more than willing to take that chance at 194 overall. Housler is a big fast guy, and teams can’t afford to pay much attention to him with Fitz and Floyd making big plays downfield.
E.J. Manuel, QB, Bills, 192
He’ll be starting soon enough if not right away. He gives you some points with his feet and he has a ton of targets that get yards-after-the catch. E.J.’s a very nice upside play in round 17.
Stephen Hill, WR, Jets, 190
No way would I bet my fantasy season on Stephen Hill, but that’s not what you’re doing if you take him in the 16th round, and Hill’s upside is a lot higher than this draft slot.
Dwayne Allen, TE, Colts, 186
How this guy is lasting this long blows my mind, but I’ll happily accept this kind of steal in the 16th round. Allen is a complete player and he’s already got the trust of the coaching staff and Andre Luck.
Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers, 185
He’s not my favorite target in this area of the draft, but he’s a very solid value if you are looking for a receiver that can start for you in the 16th round.
Greg Little, WR, Browns, 183
I can’t wait to use a 16th rounder on Greg Little. Low risk and a mountain of upside. He’ll also be the number one option in weeks one and two with Josh Gordon out.
Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins, 180
His ADP should rise now that the Dolphins are talking of using him in tandem with Lamar Miller. We doubt they go to a committee, but Thomas is underrated and we’d be very happy to snatch him up here. If I already had Miller on my roster, I’d be taking Thomas a few rounds sooner depending on what kind of RB depth I had.
Cardinals Defense, 179
You can draft them 85 slots after the first defense (Seattle) goes off the board. That’s a good way to play it. The Giants, Rams, Falcons and Tampa are other good late round options.
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals, 174
He’s got the job opposite Greene and he’s a play-maker. I love the idea of getting Sanu this late.
Shonn Greene, RB, Titans, 173
Greene should be drafted sooner. Chris Johnson owners are getting a nice cheap high-end handcuff if they get Greene anywhere near this late. Greene’s underrated and the Titans’ offensive line is going to be much improved.
Bilal Powell, RB, Jets, 170
This one is simple. Chris Ivory breaks like glass and the Jets are barren at tailback after Ivory and Powell. If you own Ivory, Powell would be a priority add for me. I wouldn’t wait this long unless I was deep at RB apart from Ivory. Powell may even get a start or two early on with Ivory still building endurance after missing so much time in camp.
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans, 167
You have to wait because he banged up his knee, but he projects to be healthy soon. If Wright had a better QB, he’d never last this long. I’m happy to take him as my 5th or 6th receiver. He has upside to be a WR3.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals, 162
You never know with rookies, but the Bengals obviously have big plans for Eifert and he won’t be the primary focus of opposing defenses. He’s definitely worth a look this late.
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers, 160
He’s worth taking a few rounds sooner, especially if you need some help at tailback. Le’Veon Bell is not out for the whole season. He should be back in late September or early August, but with the lisfranc injuries, you never know. Dwyer could be a big factor and help you considerably during the bye weeks.
Zach Sudfeld, TE, Patriots, 156
It’s hard to predict what his role will be with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. It may be fantasy-viable, but there are a lot of places for Tom Brady to throw the ball. The other issue with Sudfeld is durability. Still, at this price, I’m willing to take a chance, especially if I took Gronkowski early on.
Michael Bush, RB, Bears, 154
He’s a must for Matt Forte owners and he can help you out as a flex option in 12-team performance leagues.
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams, 153
Getting a QB with this much upside this late in the draft is a testament to why you can wait on quarterbacks without risking much. Bradford is no lock, but I like his odds and if he hits ... he could hit big, like QB1 big.
Aaron Dobson, WR, Patriots, 150
Upside. We told you about Dobson before he was drafted and we’re still very high on him as one of Tom Brady’s more athletic targets. Dobson is a legit red-zone threat for a team that GETS to the red zone often. He’s well worth taking here and I might go a round or two earlier depending on the circumstances.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Colts, 146
He’s a solid option in the 13th round if you need a startable receiver. I’m a much bigger fan of T.Y. Hilton, but both players should have enough playing time to post solid numbers with Andrew Luck throwing them the ball.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens, 144
I’m not sure what this guy has to do to get respect, but they might start airing it out a bit with all the speed they have on offense ... and their receivers are underrated on the whole. Flacco’s a value.
Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams, 143
Pead’s upside makes him a solid value, especially for the team that drafted Daryl Richardson in the first half of the draft.
Fred Davis, TE, Redskins, 141
I love Davis at this stage of the game. If he stays healthy, he could have a huge year and be your weekly starter.
Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots, 137
Getting one of Brady’s main options this late works for me. Taking him a round earlier is a reasonable move too. Thompkins is a great fit for the Patriots.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers, 136
Big Ben is getting no respect and that makes him a very nice value as a cheap starting option or as a QB2.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings, 135
I might go after him a little sooner, because this is a player I want ... so long as I can draft him as a reserve player with the hope that he forces his way into my lineup. Check out Patterson in my pre-draft scouting report.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears, 134
Another value option at QB. I’m not looking to bet the house on Cutler, but I love his QB1 upside in Marc Trestman’s offense. Cutler finally has an improving offensive line and his targets are very underrated.
Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars, 130
Wide receiver is a very deep position and you should have no trouble building the depth needed to stash Blackmon on your bench during his 4-game suspension. He’s got a lot of talent and upside.
Reuben Randle, WR, Giants, 127
They are going to use this kid a lot whether Hakeem Nicks is nicked up or not. He’s got WR3 upside ... and more than that if Nicks is out.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears, 126
We like him, as our regulars know. Jeffery could make a lot of big plays this year and he’s a nice value in the 11th round as a WR4.
Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens, 124
Getting Pierce in the 11th is a steal for Ray Rice owners looking for a handcuff option. If I owned Rice, I might draft Pierce in the tenth, especially if I was concerned about my depth.
Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers, 123
Health is the key for Brown, who is a very solid fundamental receiver with underrated athleticism and ball skills. The potential for garbage time in points could be very high in San Diego this year. Brown has WR3 upside in the 11th round.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears, 120
Bennett is a good way to draft your TE1. You get plenty of scoring punch and you have nine rounds to fill your other positions first. That’s good business.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills, 119
If I own C.J. Spiller, the ONE thing that I’d worry about is injury. Well guess what, if you get Fred Jackson as a handcuff, you don’t need to worry as Fred can post big fantasy numbers himself if he is getting the touches. He’s got flex value in 12-team leagues as a stand-alone option, so don’t wait too long if you own Spiller.
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals, 118
He’s great value here and he can start for you or be your QB2. The Bengals are loaded with talent on offense and Dalton is the prime beneficiary. You can benefit too if you get him this late.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans, 116
I’m all over Hopkins at 116 if he is there. He’s got WR2 upside with a solid QB and a running game that sets up nice play-action opportunities. I’m happy to take the plunge on Hopkins.
Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns, 115
Cameron is a nice to get a solid TE1 without using a premium selection. In Norv Turner’s offense, Cameron could be very good and as we’ve been saying, we think his QB Brandon Weeden is underrated.
Bryce Brown, RB, Eagles, 113
Bryce Brown has some downside, but in Chip Kelly’s scheme, a player with his size/speed combo could post crazy stats. I’ll take a chance on Brown in the 9th or 10th for sure.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos, 111
He has a chance to win the job in Denver. Just for the upside, I’ll take Hillman here and I’ll do it with a smile.
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles, 108
Vick’s a very solid pick at the end of round nine if you are still looking for a starter. The really good news is that you can draft a few high quality backups over the next ten rounds as we’ve seen. Vick should post great fantasy numbers for as long as he can stay healthy.
Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals, 107
This kid has big upside with Larry Fitzgerald drawing premium coverage. New Cardinals HC Bruce Arian’s downfield passing attack fits Floyd perfectly. He’s got some risk as an unproven player, but I think his upside is well worth the risk in the 9th round.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers, 105
I love the idea of getting Sanders this late and then rostering Markus Wheaton about 4-5 rounds later. That’s a nice move in deep 12-team formats.
Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks, 103
You’re getting a WR3 at WR4 prices. Not bad at all. Tate’s finally getting the respect he deserves, but he’s still a decent value if you can get him here.
Ben Tate, RB, Texans, 101
No way should he be on the board this late. You are stealing him if you can pull this off. I’m looking to get him a round sooner in the 8th.
So what did we learn?
You can get QB1 options up into the 160s. You can wait until the 14th round to take your starter and get away with it. That’s powerful information. I’m not saying that this is the best way to draft, but knowing that you can’t get shut out of a position means you can take targets of opportunity at other positions if the value is good enough.
We learned that WR3-capable players are on the board into the 180s. This is also very valuable to know, because you can take some chances in rounds 10-15 and still have some solid options to draft later on. This makes it easier to take a chance on players like Justin Blackmon and Bryce Brown.
We learned that team defenses of good quality can still be had right up until the end of the draft. Arizona at 179 overall being the best value, but there are others.
In short, you can still find just about anything you’d want after 100 players are drafted with the exception of.
Yes, you can get players with the potential to be some of these things, but not players who are projected at that level. Tomorrow, I’ll be back with a look at the players ranked 1-100 and we’ll also put a reverse mock team together.
Good luck everybody drafting today and tonight!
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