Drafting In Reverse 2013 Pt. 3
The finishing touches and the top 100
Welcome to the third installment of Drafting In Reverse. Today we look at players with an ADP between 1 and 100. I’ve left the first rounders out because ADP is a non-factor with first round picks. Just take the highest ranked back or Calvin Johnson. It’s easy to figure out. To close out the article, we’ll use the players in all three installments to put together a team of value selections taken at or ahead of their ADP. Alrighty then, let’s go.
Chris Givens, WR, Rams, 100
Givens is a guy we’ve liked for a long time and he’s the top option in the Rams’ passing game right now. He’s a very solid option in non-PPR formats.
Jared Cook, TE, Rams, 99
Not a bad value if you waited out the early tight ends. Cook is a great upside option and you can land another, more solid option, later on. Cook has the potential to really go off, and he’s a red zone guy.
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns, 98
Just give me the chance to get Gordon this late. It’s a no-brainer.
Kenny Britt, WR, Titans, 94
The risk is tolerable if you can get him this late in the game, and with the depth at this position, you can build a solid bench for insurance.
Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers, 92
Great value getting Cam Newton’s best red zone weapon and number two overall target this late.
Mark Ingram, RB, Saints, 91
I’m very happy to take him this late as my 3rd or 4th back. Ingram has more upside than a lot of people are giving him credit for, and he’s low risk on draft day for the first time in his young career.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings, 89
Getting Rudolph in round 8 as my TE1 works for me. That’s solid value for the Vikings best red zone option. You think having AP helps a TE/QB combo in the goal line? Yeah, maybe JUST a little.
Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers, 85
The 8th round sure looks like the round to target a tight end if you want low cost and top-5 upside. Finley is playing for cash, folks. I’m buyin’.
Mike Williams, WR, Bucs, 83
Though I am somewhat unlikely to be targeting WR3s at this stage of the draft, Williams is a solid value and a safe selection.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks, 80
Right now, based on ADP, this is the play at QB. Wilson gives you elite upside and a solid floor due to his weekly foot-points. If you take the best available players up until the 7th and then land Wilson as your QB, you should be in great shape.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts, 77
As we told you last summer, Hilton can flat out play the game. We love him as a WR3 this year. He’s a great pick in the 7th if he’s still there. In certain situations, I might even take him a round higher.
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys, 76
He’s a much better value at this draft position than any QB you might take in the first three rounds.
Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams, 74
He’s slipped a bit and you can sometimes get him in round seven. I’m buying at that price and I’ll try and get Isaiah Pead or Zac Stacy at a good price later on for insurance purposes.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jets, 73
How the mighty have fallen. I was screaming “bust” when people were drafting this guy in the 3rd and 4th rounds a month or so ago, but now ... in the 7th ... I’m tempted. This is especially true if I am in good shape and looking for upside options. I like Ivory a whole lot more as a RB3 or RB4 than I do as a RB2. Then grab Bilal Powell with a 14 rounder and you have cheap backfield to work with behind your starters.
Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots, 72
He goes a lot earlier in some leagues and I’d advise you to wait at least until the 6th round for him. At 72 overall, I’m definitely a buyer.
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars, 71
Don’t go too early on him due to injury risk. Cecil’s had a calf injury during camp and you have to consider the risk of re-injury. He also had two concussions in 2012. Having said that, he’s a fine WR3 option and he’s worth taking if he slips to the late sixth or early seventh. He’s a lock starter if he’s healthy.
James Jones, WR, Packers, 68
If you pass up on Jones this late, do not blame me. He’s a steal in the late sixth. You don’t pass up on one of Rodgers most trusted weapons this late in a draft.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Colts, 66
He’s good value in the 6th, but I’d be looking to add Vick Ballard a round ahead of his ADP if I decided to roll with Bradshaw and his risky feet. He offers nice upside in the 6th round, but understand the risks.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals, 65
I’m all over Gio at this point of the draft. I’d take him a few spots earlier if I’m looking for a back. I’d say anywhere from the middle of the 5th in 12-team leagues.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers, 61
If you opt to go QB at the top of the 6th round, CK would be my choice based on ADP. He’s in such a stable situation, plus he’s a dynamic threat as a passer and as a runner.
Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins, 60
Getting a WR2 with this much upside in the late 5th works for me. Wallace is underrated at this point. He’s not stuck in Todd Haley’s offense anymore, people. He’s definitely worth the risk at this stage of the draft.
Eric Decker, WR, Broncos, 57
Eric Decker, anywhere in the 5th round, is thievery if you can pull it off. The guy has WR1 upside and he plays with a guy who is going to get his own wing in the Hall of Fame. Great value.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins, 56
There are obvious risks here with both Garcon’s injury history and RGIII’s knee concerns, but Pierre has WR1 upside and he’s a very solid pick in round five ... if he’s still around.
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens 54
I’m looking for Decker and then, if he’s gone, I am looking at Smith or Garcon. Torrey’s the #1 option on his team and he has a top flight QB whose strengths align perfectly with his own. Smith is a very solid option at his current ADP.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers, 51
If you can lock in your foundational backs and receivers before round five, then taking Davis is a nice way to go for the kill. He has elite upside now that he and Kaepernick have had time to work together. Then factor in Crabtree’s injury and the target increase that should provide and you have to like Davis as a 5th rounder. Taking him late in round four makes sense too, especially if you like the receiving options you project to be available with your 5th round selection.
Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers, 47
His ADP is rising and I’d be taking him more than a round ahead of his ADP. To me, Lacy is a quality RB2 option worthy of early round three consideration. If you somehow get him at or near his ADP, you are a fantasy criminal.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins, 45
He’s slipped since the Dolphins started talking up Daniel Thomas. Miller is a solid choice as your RB2 starting in the middle of round three. He’s a steal at 45 overall, but I doubt he makes it there in most drafts.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Bucs, 37
If you can get V-Jax anywhere near the 4th round, you deserve a pat on the back. He’s a viable pick ten spots sooner and a huge value at 37.
David Wilson, RB, Giants, 33
You know we like him and we have ranked ten spots higher than this. David Wilson at 33 is outstanding value due to his RB1 potential and the stability of the Giants’ offense.
Reggie Bush, RB, Lions, 29
Understand the risks and get Joique Bell a few rounds early if you take the plunge in deeper formats. At this point, Reggie is a very high upside RB2 despite the risks. Again, I’m looking to add Bell in round 14 or so if I own Reggie. The only way that changes is if I end up really deep at the position. Then I’ll wait for Bell a few more rounds and load up on upside options. Know your situation.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals, 26
If Fitz makes it to the 3rd round and you have your two RBs, then take him and enjoy.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints 23
He’s a steal this late and a solid pick any time after the elite tailbacks are gone. He’ll lock down the top option at a position to give you an edge.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons, 21
Jones is a potential steal late in round two.
Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots, 20
In non-PPR, you are getting great value if Ridley gets to you this late.
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans, 18
We project him for RB1 numbers when all is said and done, and we love the idea of getting him as a RB2.
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals, 16
Elite talent in round two is a solid play as you can’t get it after this point.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears, 14
We think he should go in round one. If you get him here, you got lucky.
So, what did we learn? If you want a real-deal back, you really need to act inside of the first four rounds ... and even the 4th round can be risky in higher-level leagues, where ADP is a little less reliable as far as sleepers staying sleepy. For this, I want the running backs that I NEED early on. I want two in the first three rounds and I’d like three inside of the first six rounds if I can do it without reaching.
We learned that you can get a lot of receiving talent later on in the top 100, but the lock starters can be gone by the end of the 7th round. The elite receiving options won’t be on the board by the early-to-mid 3rd round.
We learned that you can get great value at quarterback throughout the mid-to-late stage of the draft. The best value right now, based on ADP, is Russell Wilson in round seven, but the real key is avoiding QBs is rounds 1-5 if possible. By doing so, you can build the foundation of a title contender and still get a QB with legit high-end potential ... and a solid floor too.
Now, I’ll reveal the team we’ve put together with this information. Now, understand, I am limiting myself to what SHOULD be available based on current ADP ... in a real draft, you may be able to do even better if certain players slip and you need to be on the lookout for that. Your Rotobahn cheat sheet can help you keep tabs on value while using the overall rankings.
The 2013 Drafting In Squad.... I am drafting from the 9th position to make it a challenge. Remember, we use a 12-team league with a flex position for all our rankings and such. We also use performance scoring rather than PPR.
Round 1: Trent Richardson, RB (9 overall)
The best value on the board and I get my RB1 locked in.
Round 2: A.J. Green, WR (16 overall)
I land an elite WR1 and I’m in good balance for round three.
Round 3: David Wilson, RB (33 overall)
I nab a really solid RB2 and can now take the best available player in round four.
Round 4: Eddie Lacy, RB (40 overall)
Based on ADP, Lacy is there, so he’s the pick. I’ll be starting three backs with one as a flex on most weeks.
Round 5: Eric Decker, WR 57 overall)
I got him at his ADP, which is amazing value. If Decker was gone, I can go to a guy like Wallace or Garcon, depending on who’s available.
Round 6: Giovani Bernard, RB (64 overall)
If he is there this late, even if I have my starting slots filled, I am taking him, because I can get great value for backs in the trade market after I clear my bye weeks.
Round 7: BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB, (81 overall)
I missed Russell Wilson by one slot and though there would probably be a QB1 left in a real draft, there are none based on ADP. I decide to lock in the Cincy backs to give myself excellent trade leverage if I need it.
Round 8: Josh Gordon, WR (88 overall)
Passing on upside in round seven works out as I get a high-end option in round 8 anyway. I’m willing to wait out his 2-game suspension to get him as a my WR3 for the rest of the year.
Round 9: Michael Floyd, WR (105 overall)
Floyd gives me a great upside option while Gordon is out and a player to compete with Gordon for my WR3 spot.
Round 10: Jordan Cameron, TE, (112 overall)
He has a lot of upside this late in the draft and I know I can land another solid 2nd option later on.
Round 11: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR (129 overall)
I might even take him in the 10th in some case, but I’m happy to land a player with such a high ceiling this late.
Round 12: Ben Roethlisberger, QB (136 overall)
Is he my ideal starter? No. But he’ll get the job done and, because of my depth at tailback, I have the means to add an elite QB if that’s what my team needs.
Round 13: Sam Bradford, QB (153 overall)
I got solidity with Big Ben, and now I make an upside play with Bradford. I also have the ability to play matchups.
Round 14: Jonathan Dwyer, RB (160 overall)
This was just a good value selection, and knowing that I may end up dealing a RB, I get more depth for later on.
Round 15: Cardinals Defense (177 overall)
I may wait even longer for a defense depending on how the draft is going, but this is solid value.
Round 16: Dwayne Allen, TE (184 overall)
Allen gives me a solid floor at the position in case Cameron struggles.
Round 17: Kenny Stills, WR (201 overall)
He’s one of our favorite sleepers and I’ll be taking him ahead of his ADP to make sure I get him. Plenty of upside for Mr. Stills this late.
Round 18: Christine Michael, RB (208 overall)
Could have taken him with the previous pick, but I needed WR upside more. He’s still on the board, so it’s a no-brainer. Michael has RB1 potential if there’s an injury in Seattle.
Round 19: Brandon Weeden, QB (225 overall)
Getting a solid QB option this late is good. Now I have three weekly options to play matchups with until I make a move for an elite QB.
Round 20: Mike Nugent, K (232 overall)
Nugent works. Never go early on a kicker. Take them with one of your final picks, preferably the last pick.
So here’s the team....
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Sam Bradford
- Brandon Weeden
- Running Backs
- Trent Richardson
- David Wilson
- Eddie Lacy
- Giovani Bernard
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis
- Jonathan Dwyer
- Christine Michael
- Wide Receivers
- A.J. Green
- Eric Decker
- Josh Gordon
- Michael Floyd
- Cordarrelle Patterson
- Kenny Stills
- Tight Ends
- Jordan Cameron
- Dwayne Allen
- Mike Nugent
Not bad at all.
I’d be very happy with this group, though I will probably need at least one trade to maximize the potential of my starting lineup.
Remember, no draft follows ADP exactly. Your draft method may, in and of itself, change the order of the players. If you draft live (in-person), use general rankings like the ones I’ve used from Fantasy Pros. If you draft at ESPN, use their ADP and the same goes for CBS or Yahoo or whatever.
This concludes my three-part look at value over a 20-round draft. If you draft next week or the week after, check back with us as I will be updating the ADP in our rankings early this week. We’ll also be posting my 32 Backfields article in the next few days. I’m starting that one up right now. I'll also be updating the Player Universe and Cheat Sheets again on Monday.
Good luck to all and happy drafting!
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