Drafting In Reverse 2014 Pt. 2

Drafting In Reverse 2014 Pt. 2

Looking at players drafted after 200 overall
By: Pete Davidson : August 16, 2014 2:37pm

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Welcome to Drafting In Reverse Part Two. In Part One, we discussed players who are not being drafted even though they ought to be. Today we look at players being drafted after 200 players are off the board.  These players are all being drafted later than we have them ranked. These are targets of opportunity for drafters in large formats. Some of these guys are absolute steals at their current ADP.

This is drafting in reverse so in our next installment, I will break down the talent that is currently being drafted between 100 and 200. In the final installment, I will look for value in the top 100 players based on their ADP, and we'll construct a team, in reverse, based on what we've learned.

When we’re finished, you will have a nice long list of players who are currently good values based on our evaluations contrasted against current ADP. That list will stretch all the way from the studs at the top of drafts to the more obscure talent you can steal at the end of large drafts. If you’ve digested our rankings and have read Drafting In Reverse all the way through, you will be loaded for bear on draft day.

Alright, let’s get into today’s talent. Since these players have ADP, I am using our traditional rankings grid format with the ADP data included.  I used the MFL data for this article.

If you are looking for the Top 400, you can always find it in The Rotobahn.  

143 Roy Helu RB WAS 10 216 240 He’s barely getting taken at all and his upside is very real. Jay Gruden is going to like Helu’s all-around game and his no-nonsense style of play. In large PPR formats, Helu could be a weekly contributor. He’s also the best handcuff option for Alfred Morris owners at this time.
148 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN 10 218 If you end up owning Adrian Peterson, this is a player you really want to go after, and don’t wait too long. I’d look to pounce a few rounds before his ADP. It’s not out of the question that McKinnon earns some stand-alone value. If Norv Turner feels like getting creative, this is a player he can use in tan del with both Peterson and Patterson. McKinnon was a triple-option QB for much of his college career. This is a player with with a very broad set of skills. No way does he stay on the board until 218 in any league I am in. I’m drafting him closer to our ranking. Expect this kid to move up a bit in the coming weeks.
150 James Starks RB GB 9 202 245 This guy is underrated and he’ll have a weekly role playing behind Eddie Lacy. However, Starks real value is as a high-quality handcuff option. If Lacy goes down, Starks can carry the ball for you in his absence and you won’t lose all that much. He’s a high-end RB2 if he is starting. That’s an invaluable safety net for Lacy owners in deep formats.
151 De'Anthony Thomas RB KC 6 228 People are sleeping on Thomas, especially in PPR formats. He’ll be the Chiefs’ new Dexter McCluster, and he’ll be better than McCluster ever was in the role. It may not happen right away, but Thomas is a natural football player. It’s only fitting that he’s playing where Marcus Allen was so great, because De’Anthony’s patience and vision is often reminiscent of Allen’s.
156 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 12 241 221 While I am not targeting him specifically, you have to consider him to be a bargain at his current ADP, which is equivalent to the 19th round in 12-team draft. Don’t ever reach for Stewart, but he can be a nice value pick if he’s healthy towards the end of August.
167 Shonn Greene RB TEN 9 186 229 He could be the goal line back and we expect Tennessee to have more goal line chances in 2014 than they have had in a few years. He’s got knee concerns, so don’t go reaching, but he’s a nice insurance policy (handcuff) for Bishop Sankey owners.
172 Jerricho Cotchery WR CAR 12 228 241 This guy will be a PPR asset and a viable option in performance (standard) leagues too. No way should he be on the board in the 18th round. He should be long gone by then. Cotch can really help you early in the year if you stash a lot of young upside talent. He can be your Yin to the upside Yang.
174 Rod Streater WR OAK 5 238 230 This one almost goes without saying. Streater is an afterthought and he could produce WR4 numbers. He’s a nice value that you can target at the end of large drafts. Remember, if Schaub stinks, the Raiders have a better place to go. Derek Carr may have some rough waters early on, but he’ll also open up the field for the Raiders’ receivers.
177 Andre Holmes WR OAK 5 216 I absolutely love this kid’s game and his upside. The obvious problem is the Raiders. They draft young talent and then don’t develop it. They bring in James Jones when they don’t have enough snaps for the all the younger guys already. So you must factor in the Raiders and their lack of a clue and the crowd they’ve created at receiver. Still, at the current cost, I am definitely targeting Holmes in roughly the 15th round.
184 Mike Williams WR BUF 9 257 I still shake my head at the Williams acquisition. Buffalo did not need him and he’ll stifle the development of both Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. Having said that, he is the favorite to start opposite Sammy Watkins and he has plenty of talent if his head is properly attached. Williams is a nice source of cheap WR talent and he could post WR3 numbers on a lot of weeks. And, to Mike’s credit, he’s produced most of his NFL stats with weak QB play. He’ll fit right in up there in Buffalo.
185 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 4 163 203 Cleveland and Tampa are the two defenses I am ending up with in drafts and that’s just fine by me. This is definitely a year to strike at the tail end of the DEF run in drafts. The exception would be if your league holds off on the position. There are times where you can try to START the run, but I’ll never attempt that move before round 15 in 12-team 20-round drafts.
186 Tampa Bay Bucs DEF TB 7 179 206 See Cleveland. Tampa is playing the old Bears scheme and they have good talent. Do you really need to hear more?
191 Latavius Murray RB OAK 5 234 258 This kid has monster upside and he’s playing behind a couple of past-their-prime backs. Murray could end up with a major role if he can stay healthy and make a few big plays. His long speed is off the charts for a back his size. Think Knile Davis, but you can get him a lot later.
193 Harry Douglas WR ATL 9 220 213 Really, people? This guy didn’t do enough to be taken inside the top 200? If you own Julio Jones, no way should you pass on this guy more than 14 times. Handcuff him in or around the 15th and you have a plan B in case Julio needs foot surgery C. Douglas went for 85 and a thousand last year! He’s got major PPR upside if there are any injuries in Atlanta. Roddy White is no spring chicken himself and Gonzo’s targets will not go to Levine Toilolo … not all of them anyways. Douglas is underappreciated.
194 Jace Amaro TE NYJ 11 242 222 He's been struggling in camp and the Jets haven’t been shy about telling the media about it. He’s also a high draft pick who projects to be a TINO … a TE in name only. That means he’ll see a buttload of targets if he’s any good at all. No way do I leave this guy on the board in the 18th round … unless there’s somebody else left that I have ranked even higher.
195 Jared Cook TE STL 4 223 207 Cook’s a post-hype sleeper who I have some interest in if he slips enough. He’ll be better now that he knows his new offense and the Rams have more depth on the outside so teams can’t crash on the big TE. He has TE1 upside and you can often land him in round 17. Not bad. Not bad at all.
200 Paul Richardson WR SEA 4 235 As Jim Hackett says, he sounds like he’s an insurance salesman. The thing is, Percy Harvin is as injury-prone as he is talented. Richardson can be had very late and the insurance sales man can provide Harvin owners with a discount-double-check of sorts. This kid’s electric and we think he’ll make a rookie impact despite tales of him being just a special teamer. Look past the dull name and draft the high-end play-maker.
215 Stepfan Taylor RB ARI 4 209 253 Assuming he continues to hold off Jonathan Dwyer, Taylor is a bargain right now. He’s a nice inexpensive handcuff option for Andre Ellington owners. He should be owned in any league that rosters 240 or more players, but he’s slipping out of a fair amount of those drafts.
221 New York Jets DEF NYJ 11 229 242 You can get them at the tail end of almost any draft. You may not want to target the Jets, but you can consider them to be the knot at the end of the defensive rope.
228 Jarvis Landry WR MIA 5 259 We haven’t given up on him yet. He’ll need to jump a few guys on the depth chart, but if he wins the slot job, he’ll be worthy of selection in big leagues. He’s a guy to watch closely the next few weeks.
229 Denarius Moore WR OAK 5 264 He's worth more than this even if he gets cut, because he could land with a team like the Jets or Panthers. He’s got WR2 upside in the right situation. Not a bad 22nd round pick.



The Takeaway

So what did we learn today?

  • We’ve learned that some talented backs will slip past the 200 mark. While I doubt that all these names will continue to slip, it sure looks like there will some targets of opportunity at the RB position after 200 players are gone. Obviously, if you look at our rankings, a lot of these guys should be going a lot sooner.
  • Receiver is incredibly deep both in terms of high-upside talent and solid fill-in talent like Jerricho Cotchery. Cotch will likely move up in the next two weeks, but he’ll still be a value.
  • Being patient with team defenses is currently rewarded. I’m not telling you to target Cleveland and Tampa at their ADP as much as I am saying that you can wait out the run with defenses and still do very well.
  • Backup QBs are going early as a group. While it’s prudent to wait on quarterbacks over the top 100 or so picks, they actually begin to become a value after that and the desirable ones are usually cleaned out within the top 200 picks.
  • Tight ends are everywhere … meaning there are worthwhile targets on the board from start to finish in almost any draft. This is something we learned in our undrafted section with Jermaine Gresham among others and it obviously holds true here as well.

As we did with Part 1, we’ll now carry this information forward and ultimately apply it to our draft plan. I’ll see you all tomorrow when I’ll release Drafting In Reverse Part 3.