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Drafting In Reverse 2014 Pt. 3

Drafting In Reverse 2014 Pt. 3

Looking at players between 101-200
By: Pete Davidson : August 17, 2014 9:31pm

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Welcome to Drafting In Reverse Part 3. We’ve been working our way backwards through the player pool looking for value. If you missed part one, you can find it here, and if you missed part two, you can access it here.

In part three, I’ve isolated the players who are currently good values and who carry an ADP between 101 and 200. Tomorrow, in part four, I will tackle the top 100 players in terms of ADP and, again, isolate those players who are currently solid values. When we’re done with that, I’ll construct a team based on our research and draw some conclusions that we can apply to our draft plans.

If you are looking for the Top 400 or fresh cheat sheets, you can always find them in The Rotobahn.  

Alright, let’s get to it.

Rank Pos Rank PLAYER POS TEAM BYE ADP MFL ADP THE SKINNY
71 29 Terrance West RB CLE 4 117 107 West is the biggest value of those being drafted in today’s zone. He should have a good portion of the workload with Ben Tate healthy. Perhaps enough to give him flex value. If Tate gets hurt, as he’s known to do, West could become a star quickly.
82 32 Rueben Randle WR NYG 8 124 101 Randle has increased upside with the departure of Hakeem Nicks and with the hiring of new OC Ben McAdoo. The new scheme is more friendly to Randle’s game and he’s now the best red zone weapon in the Giants’ passing attack. He’s good value anywhere after his Rotobahn ranking.
87 35 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 12 142 108 I’ve bumped him up because he’s performed well so far and is shaping up like the #1 WR in Carolina. Given his red zone potential and the volume he’s likely to get, it’s hard to rank him much lower.
93 38 Justin Hunter WR TEN 9 168 119 I've moved him up on our board, but his ADP is soaring as well. Hunter’s moved up about 40 spots in the last month and he’ll climb even higher after last week’s 2 score performance. I’ve got him ranked fairly aggressively now. If you draft him much higher, you will be passing on more secure talent, so keep your eyes open. Tennessee still has an unsettled QB situation, but if you can land Hunter.
95 33 Jeremy Hill RB CIN 4 133 118 His upside may be somewhat capped by Gio Bernard, but Hill is going to force his way onto the field in Cincinnati’s run-heavy offense. In time he should own the goal line and have weekly flex appeal in 12-team leagues. And, Hill is not just a big banger. He’s got legit passing game chops.
96 10 Martellus Bennett TE CHI 9 127 128 His ADP is a joke. Don’t wait that long to land one of the bigger bargains at the TE position. TE1 performance at TE2 prices.
98 40 Riley Cooper WR PHI 7 111 116 Cooper is under-the-radar because Philly has been bringing him along slowly with a foot injury. Once the season gets going we expect Cooper to be about what he was in 2013. He’s a guy who can be your WR3 and he gives you big game potential from that spot. He’s a good value if you can get him around his ADP.
99 34 Khiry Robinson RB NO 6 125 138 The obvious problem with Robinson is the way the Saints rotate backs. So don’t draft Robinson with delusions of grandeur. That said, if you are patient, and you get him between my ranking and his ADP, you’ll get a strong weekly flex option in large formats with the UPSIDE to be more. And, all it would take is a Mark Ingram injury … which is hardly an uncommon event.
100 41 Kenny Stills WR NO 6 159 131 We think he’ll be a fixture in the Saints offense for a long time. Brandin Cooks is more exciting, but Still will be productive in his own right and he’s already proven that he’s got NFL chops. He’s a great value anywhere near his ADP, and I will take him a round or two earlier in certain situations. Stills could radically outperform his ADP in 2014.
101 35 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 145 106 We have him a little ahead of his ADP because we like his ability and the way he could fit into the Falcons offense. Freeman is an adept receiver and a good ball-carrier. We think he’s the best back in a deep backfield.
103 38 Knile Davis RB KC 6 194 162 If you draft Jamaal Charles, you absolutely must draft Knile Davis as a handcuff … especially in leagues with 12 or more teams. He’s an insane value at his current ADP, but I would not play around if I was a JC owner. Go a few rounds early and make sure you get him.
104 36 Christine Michael RB SEA 4 147 110 He could end up being an expensive handcuff, but he’s a worthy one because Marshawn Lynch has been a high volume back and that often leads to breaking down. Michael is loaded with ability, so he’s a high priority insurance policy who could also have some stand-alone value depending on how Seattle chooses to dole out the snaps.
108 45 Hakeem Nicks WR IND 10 126 127 Nick has big upside playing with Andrew Luck. He’s certainly worth a long look before his current ADP.
110 39 Bernard Pierce RB BAL 11 115 115 He can help you right out of the gate as he’ll be the man until Week 3 rolls around and Ray Rice returns from suspension. Pierce could certainly enlarge his role with a strong performance and he is very well suited for new OC Gary Kubiak’s offense.
111 46 Jordan Matthews WR PHI 7 174 120 I am definitely going after this kid before his ADP. He may take some time to bloom, but he’s got WR2 upside in Chip Kelly’s offense.
112 47 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 8 184 156 As soon as he is playing without limitations, I will start targeting him in all drafts. Use caution until then, but we think Odell will be special.
113 13 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 4 237 148 He’s a big value at his current ADP and he should get going quickly with Marvin Jones out of the picture until at least Week 5. This kid has elite upside and will breakout sometime this season or next.
114 15 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 12 122 122 Solid value in an underrated offense. Le’Veon or Legarrette? It doesn’t matter if you own Big Ben. You win either way.
116 49 Aaron Dobson WR NE 10 183 164 He has top 60 upside and you can get him as an afterthought due to his injury, which projects to be cleared up soon.
117 50 Anquan Boldin WR SF 8 114 126 I’m worried about the crowded offense in Frisco, but Boldin’s well worth a look at his ADP.
118 51 Cecil Shorts WR JAC 11 123 121 If you can get him around his ADP, then he’s well worth the pick. Injuries are keeping his value down. Cecil is a natural as a receiver.
120 40 Mark Ingram RB NO 6 155 155 He’ll outperform his ADP for as long as he stays healthy. I’m a little higher on Khiry Robinson and his younger wheels, but Ingram is playing very well too.
121 41 Andre Williams RB NYG 8 141 132 He's going to move up in our rankings if he continues to get more involved. Williams is the NYG RB to target right now in my view. Much better value than taking Rashad Jennings early.
123 53 Marqise Lee WR JAC 11 214 151 If you can get him at or around his ADP, then you have a potential steal on your hands. He’s the #1 WR in Jacksonville right now and he has a lot of ability.
126 54 Jarrett Boykin WR GB 9 171 147 Nice value for a guy who should have strong flex appeal for as long as he can hold Davante Adams off.
127 55 Andrew Hawkins WR CLE 4 239 197 Be patient with Hawkins and you can have a steal around round 15-16.
129 57 Kenny Britt WR STL 4 195 149 I'm targeting him about where I have him ranked. Huge upside.
130 58 Markus Wheaton WR PIT 12 175 135 Wheaton goes earlier in MFL leagues and we like him at or even a little before his ADP, but he is not a guy to reach for as there is a bevy of WR3 caliber guys at this stage of drafts.
132 18 Johnny Manziel QB CLE 4 138 139 I'm targeting him as my 2nd QB, but he’s not a big value at this point as he hasn’t secured the gig in Cleveland.
135 59 Greg Jennings WR MIN 10 162 144 You can get him later than we have him ranked and that’s a nice value if he falls to you.
136 45 Chris Ivory RB NYJ 11 137 177 Ivory can be a nice bench option with TD potential on a weekly basis. No reason to take him before we have him ranked and you can push the envelope a bit for max value.
137 46 Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND 10 177 179 He's a steal right now and if you take the T-Rich plunge, he’s practically mandatory as a handcuff in deep leagues. He’ll have some flexworthy stand-alone value in deeper PPR formats.
139 47 Tre Mason RB STL 4 149 143 I like Mason as the handcuff for Zac Stacy owners and I’d look to act a tad earlier than his ADP if your ground game lacks depth. People are under-selling this guy. He’s going to produce at some point and he’ll be very, very good if Stacy goes down.
142 15 Antonio Gates TE SD 10 134 154 He's a value at his ADP but don’t expect vintage Gates. You can hope for it, but don’t expect it.
144 16 Dwayne Allen TE IND 10 206 160 Allen will slip in some drafts and you might be able to steal him, but he’s worth taking ahead of his ADP in deeper leagues.
145 17 Travis Kelce TE KC 6 195 I'm looking for Kelce before his ADP, especially if my starter lacks panache. This kid has a big ceiling if he can earn enough snaps. He’s a playmaker.
152 60 Brian Hartline WR MIA 5 176 159 This dude is well worth a look before his ADP, especially in PPR.
153 56 Ka'Deem Carey RB CHI 9 181 We still project him to be the best handcuff option for Matt Forte owners. He’s a very skilled all-around back without great speed. A lot like Forte actually, albeit in a smaller package.
154 57 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT 12 146 193 LeVeon Bell owners had better not wait until his ADP. Blount is a very solid handcuff option with solid weekly flex appeal in large standard leagues.
159 61 Lance Dunbar RB DAL 11 221 187 The Cowboys will throw it a ton this year and they’ll throw to their backs more than they have in recent years because that’s how new de facto OC Scott Linehan rolls. Dunbar could easily have some stand-alone value in PPR leagues and he is the best handcuff option for DeMarco Murray owners in all formats. He’s a steal at his current ADP.
162 21 Josh McCown QB TB 7 178 173 We are very impressed with his film and he has a very nice assortment of weapons in Tampa. McCown is being undersold and he can help you as a QB2.
163 22 Sam Bradford QB STL 4 191 170 He's looking healthy and he has better weapons than last year. I’m quite happy to wait and grab a backup like Bradford if I can get him at his ADP or even a bit earlier.
164 63 James White RB NE 10 192 169 White is part myth and part hype but there’s more. He’s also a very solid running back with a wide set of skills that include pass protection. While Stevan Ridley may be better in terms of breaking tackles and gaining yards, Bill Belichick has other priorities. White has no “wow” factor, but he has a chance to be a major factor if Ridley’s fumbling woes continue. He has RB2 upside if he ends up starting at some point. He’s worth a look in the 15th round, especially if you’ve invested heavily in Ridley.
169 63 Cody Latimer WR DEN 4 184 Latimer was in our Undrafted portion, but that was an oversight on my part. While he has no general ADP, he IS getting taken in MFL ADP. So I’ll splice Latimer into both categories. I’d use our ranking and the MFL ADP as a guideline. If you take Latimer in that area, he’s worth the risk. Just remember that he needs an injury ahead of him or he’ll need to cleanly outplay Emmanuel Sanders over time. The bottom line is that, with Latimer’s talent, you have to love him as a draft-and-stash option. It’s similar to what we said about Julius Thomas in last year’s Draft In Reverse…. “All of Manning’s targets must be owned.”
174 66 Doug Baldwin WR SEA 4 188 192 I’ll grab Baldwin a bit before his ADP if I need a receiver. He’s locked in at Seattle’s #2 for the time being.
191 22 Coby Fleener TE IND 10 213 196 There’s upside here. We’ve been unimpressed with Fleener so far, but he is entering his 3rd season and will likely continue to improve along with his QB, who he’s been playing with going back to their Stanford days.

 

 

The Takeaway


 So what did we learn?

  • Quarterbacks, in terms of value, are best acquired at or before about 170 overall. Ideally, I want two quarterbacks before that juncture.
  • Flex level and WR3 level receivers go very deep. While there are obviously varying degrees, you can still get a decent startable receiver close to 200 overall.
  • High upside talent spills over pretty far into this zone (101-200.)  It’s not like in years past where things really thin out around 100. That makes rounds 10-12 more important in the sense that you can still hit home runs in those rounds no matter what your competition does.  If your competition is weak, you can do major samage in even deeper rounds.
  • Starting caliber tight ends are often on the board in the 14th round. 

I’ll be back tomorrow with the final installment, where we’ll break down the top 100 and apply what we’ve learned in parts 1-4. See you all then.