Dynasty Update: Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
Time to sell on Alfred Morris
Alfred Morris is a pretty good running back. That’s the best thing I can say about Morris ... whose fantasy value seems to be unaffected by the coaching change in Washington. Most of the pundits seem to expect Morris to continue his successful run under the Redskins’ new coaching staff led by new HC Jay Gruden. I see that as an extremely risky assumption for fantasy footballers. People may start doing the math a bit more on this one as we get closer to drafting season, but Alfred Morris was a Mike Shanahan creation. He was slightly limited under the old regime, and he will be even more limited playing in a more conventional NFL offense.
Jay Gruden favored rookie Giovani Bernard over incumbent BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Cincinnati last season and we wonder what he’ll make of Roy Helu when he looks at him in comparison to Morris. I think it’s quite possible that we’ll have an even committee in Washington next season, and that’s not even accounting for what they may add in the draft or via free agency. We like Helu as a cheap add in dynasty leagues. He's got legit RB2 upside if things break right and he should have decent flex value in 12-team leagues if he's in a committee with Morris.
In my estimation, the time to move Alfred Morris in long term formats is right now. We see it as a longshot that Morris’ value gets any higher than it is right now and as I alluded to, we think it may plummet in the not too distant future. Sure, a lot can happen. Morris can do a lot of damage just as a goal line back and an early down thumper, but he may also get lost in a system change ... because he really thrived in the last system. Morris was no fluke playing for Shanahan, but that doesn’t mean he’s equally suited for most NFL offenses.
I’d be selling my Alfred Morris stock now, while I can still get something for it. That’s the key. There’s more risk in keeping the player than there is in moving the player when you can still get good value. Based on public and pundit opinion, you can still get almost full value. If owned Morris in a dynasty league, I’d go do that. Sell high.
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