Dynasty Update: Kenny Stills, WR, Saints
Stills on the rise
Kenny Stills was one of our underrated rookies heading into the 2013 draft, and he didn’t disappoint once he was taken by the Saints in the 5th round. We expect Stills to become a more consistent force in the Saints’ passing attack this upcoming season.
Drew Brees, as great as he is, is on the down side. He needs a little more help than in past years. In 2014, we expect a return to the kind of football that got the Saints a Super Bowl win back in 2009. And, a return to form will mean a return to the running game and a return to play-action shot plays downfield. That’s Stills’ bread and butter, but unlike Saints’ deep threats of the past, Stills is also developing a solid intermediate game and possesses good instincts when the play breaks down. Stills is actually the most complete deep threat the Saints have had during Drew Brees’ run when you compare him to guys like Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and more recently Joe Morgan.
Stills is a bit of a volatile player right now in terms of value. He was not a big name going into last season and he was inconsistent--mixing big games with disappearing acts. The guy who owns him in your dynasty league may not know what he has at this point. It’s a good time to kick the tires on Stills if you are looking to improve your receiving depth chart. The best case scenario is to have Stills included as a throw-in as part of a larger deal. You can hide you actual level of interest that way and perhaps get some other valuable talent at the same time.
Reasons to believe in Stills for the long term.
- Talent - For all the reasons we told you about last year, Stills is a good bet to succeed this year.
- Location - Drew Brees is still a damn good QB and even when Brees moves on, Stills will be a key member of a Sean Payton offense.
- Rookie year - Stills formed a quick connection with Drew Brees in limited offseason reps. He’ll be even more locked-in after a full offseason with the system and the QB.
- Development - We’re not betting against Stills, who was not a typical rookie. That he avoided most of the typical rookie pitfalls bodes well for his continued development. You have a player who learns well in a system that is taught well. He should be the 3rd option in the passing game after Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston.
- Playing time - Stills played more than 50 percent of the snaps in every game last season with a low of 52 percent in weeks 1, 4 and 12. His playing time is only going to rise.
- Aging vets - Lance Moore is going to be 31 and is not what he was. Robert Meachem is a shell of his old self and Sproles isn’t getting any younger. Moreover, there are trade winds blowing and those could turn into salary cap winds if no deals take place. This news broke on Twitter yesterday.
So what's Stills' fantasy value? In 12-team leagues using performance scoring, which is our benchmark for player values, Stills should be a solid WR3 option. We project him to be right around the 30th best WR for fantasy when all is said and done in 2014. For those in long term leagues, we expect Stills to be a solid long term WR3 with WR2 upside. Get him on the cheap now ... if you can.
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