Dynasty Update: Montee Ball, RB, Broncos
A high-end hold
Montee Ball is about as obvious a fantasy upgrade as you’ll find heading into next year. When a split backfield loses one half of its pairing, you have an obvious upgrade. And, when the offense is a Peyton Manning-led unit, you have obvious potential for high touchdown totals, not to mention big catch totals for those of you in PPR formats. There’s no doubt whatsoever that Ball is worth more now than he was at the end of the season. He could be on his way to round one value in 12-team leagues.
Let’s break this down into dynasty and redraft value.
For dynasty leaguers, I would be careful trying to land Ball at full price, because we do not know what Denver might opt to do in this year’s draft. It sure would stink to give up A.J. Green and Andre Ellington for say Ball and Golden Tate, only to see Denver take Charles Simms in the fourth round and end up with another pseudo committee. It’s possible. Just to continue the hypothetical.... if Simms excels as a rookie, and he could do so in that passing game for sure, he’d certainly provide an intriguing alternative to Ball. That’s one scenario, but it’s not even the worst case.
I’m not looking to deal for Ball. Not at his current perceived RB1 value. I'm not really looking to move him either ... not unless somebody really wants to pay big for him. He’s a high-value hold that should pay off this year at round one or two levels if things stay as they are today.
Dynasty owners should also remember what we said about Ball last year in our long term rankings. He’s a location back. His value is high--due more to Manning’s absurd efficiency than Ball’s individual skill set. When you consider that Manning’s skills are year-to-year at this point, you should consider Ball’s long term value year-to-year as well. He may be a RB2 or worse in an average offense. Heck, it’s possible that he’s a RB2 this year. Ball still has some things to prove in pass protection and with ball security, though both improved as the year progressed. So keep the long term for Denver’s offense in mind and not only Ball’s likely 2014 breakout. Both factors are legitimate ones when weighing Ball's long term worth.
For those who own Ball in long term leagues, draft day is obviously huge. It's the last hurdle before writing down that first round value in ink. Cross your fingers and consult your higher powers.
For redrafters, it’s obviously different, since the bulk of you will be drafting in August or early September. If the status quo holds, Ball will have that same round 1-2 value that I spoke of. As far as where he should be taken in 12-team standard leagues (the standard we use), I’d say he’d be a first rounder in that scenario, because of the legit value you get with a true RB1. That’s what he is if he’s a 3-down back in the Denver offense.
We'll have a new rookie scouting report out later today on Oregon's DeAnthony Thomas.
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Other 2014 Scouting Reports:
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
- Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A & M
- Dustin Vaughan, QB, West Texas A & M
- Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
- Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, LSU
- Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
- Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
- Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
- L'Damian Washington, WR, Missouri
- Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
- Robert Herron, WR, Wyoming
- Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
- Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor
- Dri Archer, RB, Kent State
- Terrance West, RB, Towson
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
- Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
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- Wide Receiver Rankings Week 16 Part Deux