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Rotobahn Top 300

Rotobahn Top 300

Pre-camp rankings and comments for the top 300
By: Pete Davidson : July 20, 2014 2:12pm

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As we near the opening of NFL training camps, and after weeks of preparation, Rotobahn’s Top 300 is ready for publication. We’re now getting close to being game-ready. All we need is some genuine action and some resolution of training camp battles. Once that happens and once ADP becomes more crystalized, our rankings and strategies will become more settled and finalized. Until then, we’ll continue to adapt on the fly and keep you up-to-date as things change on the ground with all 32 teams.

You will also find our latest cheat sheet posted in The Rotobahn. Everytime we update the rankings, we’ll also post fresh cheat sheets. The cheat sheets are downloadable in both Excel and Mac Numbers so you can customize them to your personal tastes. If you need to print and go, you’ll want to download the PDF version, which is the most printer-friendly.

Later this week, I will update this article to include fresh ADP for every player. We use an independent ADP source (FFC) rather than a hosting site like ESPN, CBS or Yahoo. One thing that you must do is get the ADP from the place that YOU draft. In most cases, that ADP source will serve you best. Here are links, in no particular order, to the some ADP data from some of the major and or better hosting sites.

The last link, Fantasy Pros, is useful in that they allow you to combine multiple sources or use just a single source. This can be helpful if you have multiple leagues on multiple sites.

Jim Hackett and I recorded a fresh podcast on Friday.  You can listen here.  For the most part, we discussed my new article (20 High-Value Targets) on WEEI.com.  Check it out!  Jim and I will be back with a few more podcasts this week. I’ll tweet links as they become available.  We'll post links on the Rotobahn home page as well.  As I have been saying, this is a monster of a rankings list. If you are looking for a specific player, just use the search function to the immediate right. It searches the document as you type. There’s no need to refresh to page.  

Rank Pos Rank PLAYER POS TEAM BYE THE SKINNY
1 1 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 7 Like with Jamaal Charles, we’ve seen how good LeSean is in a new system, and we expect HC Chip Kelly to continue featuring the mercurial back. And, as with Charles, we also expect a slight down tick in playing time. The addition of Darren Sproles should allow them to rest McCoy a little bit more than they could in 2013. McCoy is still elite … even with a slight reduction in snaps. He’s a stud talent in a dynamite offense and he looks like he’s got the best situation amongst the top three backs. He's the new king of the hill.
2 2 Jamaal Charles RB KC 6 There’s no reason to doubt him in year two of the Andy Reid Era. He’s healthy and we’ve already seen him dominate in the new system. He could lose a little bit of volume as they increase Knile Davis’ role and the Chiefs’ OL has some issues, but he’ll still be elite.
3 3 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 10 If you play in performance (standard or non-PPR) scoring, then AP is a very reasonable choice at the top of the draft. If you want to go with Charles or McCoy, that is completely reasonable. We project all three to post similar elite numbers in standard leagues. We bump AP back a bit in PPR formats. The future HOF RB will be great in Norv Turner’s offense.
4 4 Eddie Lacy RB GB 9 We’ve fully bought into Lacy. With the seeming retirement of Johnathan Franklin, Lacy becomes the obvious best option in all situations. He’ll get rest, but not as much as he’d have gotten with a healthy Franklin behind him. He projects as a fantasy stud in 2014. He’s ahead of Forte in standard scoring.
5 5 Matt Forte RB CHI 9 The last of the high probability bell-cow guys. Forte is entrenched in a system that plays to his strengths. He’s top five in all scoring formats and perhaps top three in PPR.
6 1 Calvin Johnson WR DET 9 Megatron makes a good pick anytime after the five elite backs are off the board. Calvin has more help this season with the additions of Golden Tate and Eric Ebron. He’ll be a little harder to double and should continue to dominate statistically. He’s our top receiver in all formats.
7 1 Jimmy Graham TE NO 6 As long as there are no reports of foot trouble, we like taking Graham very high and locking up one of the bigger differential players in fantasy football. Tight end is not deep with elite talent and Graham stands alone among the elite options that do exist. To me, he becomes a viable selection as soon as the top five backs are off the board.
8 2 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN 4 The loss of Eric Decker could allow teams to lean even harder on Thomas, but he should still see tons of volume and scoring chances. He’s an elite talent with an elite QB. A no-brainer selection late in round one. Draft Demaryius with confidence.
9 6 Demarco Murray RB DAL 11 Long time Rotobahn readers know that we’re big fans of Murray’s game and his ability to stay healthy in 2013 was encouraging. What’s also encouraging is the Cowboys’ improving offensive line and a scheme that should really play to Murray’s strengths in the receiving game. The Cowboys’ new OC Scott Linehan is another positive as he’s coached some very productive backs from a fantasy perspective. Murray’s PPR value is even higher than his standard value. I am ok with taking Murray in round one, especially in PPR leagues.
10 3 AJ Green WR CIN 4 He's a highly stable asset and a high-end talent. The only downgrade would be at QB, but Andy Dalton’s been the guy over the last two seasons and Green’s been an elite option during that time. He’s a very safe option as a WR1. Draft AJ with confidence.
11 4 Dez Bryant WR DAL 11 I worry a bit about injury. Dez had back issues last year and he is always willing to put his body on the line to make a play. If there’s a receiver that could out-stat Calvin Johnson this season, it’s Bryant, but he needs to play 16 games to pull it off. If you like those odds, then take him in round one.
12 7 Montee Ball RB DEN 4 He's young with fresh legs and he’s going to play major snaps behind Peyton Manning. That’s essentially the argument for Montee Ball and I can’t say that I disagree. He showed enough as a rookie to buy into him now that Knowshon Moreno is a Dolphin. This team will move the ball as they did in 2013 and Montee Ball is going to see tons of scoring chances. He’s a very solid RB1 option worthy of a round one selection.
13 8 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 4 Age and mileage are becoming issues, and his contract situation clouds his status in 2015. That said, he’s the man and Seattle will run the ball plenty as they always do. While we expect Christine Michael and Robert Turbin to get work, we also expect Lynch to lead the way and get the bulk of the goal line work. He’s still a RB1 option, but I am leaning towards elite receiving options like Dez or Marshall in PPR formats.
14 5 Julio Jones WR ATL 9 As long as you can stomach the risk of losing him to another foot injury, you will get one of the highest statistical ceilings in fantasy football by drafting Julio. It’s a play-to-win pick, but you better build some receiving depth just in case.
15 9 Le’veon Bell RB PIT 12 He's great in any format because he will catch plenty of passes and he’ll get plenty of goal line love. If you read Rotobahn last year, you know we’re big fans of Bell’s game. With his foot injury seemingly in the rear view mirror, we are liking Le’Veon as a solid RB1 option in all formats. He’s a good pick at the round one/two turn and early on in round two of twelve team drafts. LeGarrette Blount is a nice handcuff option for Bell, especially in performance scoring leagues.
16 6 Brandon Marshall WR CHI 9 We do envision a bit more spreading of the football this year in Chicago and for a few reasons. The big one is that they want Jay Cutler getting rid of the football and taking fewer big hits. Cutler’s health is crucial to Chicago’s season. The Bears give Cutler great pre-snap advantages with size everywhere and potential mismatches all over the formation plus a reliable target out of the backfield. Marshall will be great and he’ll be a WR1, but he should see a slight drop from his 2013 numbers.
17 7 Jordy Nelson WR GB 9 He's healthy and so is his HOF QB. Nelson is a reliable WR1 as things currently stand. He’s got high-end potential in all the receiving categories. He’s a WR1 in both standard and PPR scoring.
18 10 Arian Foster RB HOU 10 We are avoiding Foster if we can. He’s past his prime and the injuries have begun. He will have to reinvent himself to some extent in a new offense though the blocking scheme should be similar in the running game. Arian still has RB1 upside, but we just don’t trust him enough overall to pull the trigger in the early rounds and certainly not at his ADP of 11. We also have concerns that new QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, will not be able to get defenses out of the box with enough consistency as Matt Schaub could in his prime.
19 8 Alshon Jeffery WR CHI 9 How are teams going to stop him? Brandon Marshall draws extra coverage and the Bears have talent all over the formation. Jeffery is going to get his unless he gets hurt. He’s a safe option in the 2nd or 3rd round of any draft.
20 9 Randall Cobb WR GB 9 He's healthy and that’s all we need know. He’s a high-end weapon with a HOF QB slinging him the ball. Look for WR1 caliber production in 12-team leagues and give him a little bump in PPR scoring. He’s got 100 catch potential and he’ll score about ten times too.
21 10 Antonio Brown WR PIT 12 He's worth even more in PPR, but we like him in all formats because he’s the one receiving option in Pittsburgh that you know is going work. We like a lot of the young talent in Pitt, but they are young and they have yet to actually do it. Brown is the centerpiece of the passing game and a very stable fantasy option.
22 11 Giovani Bernard RB CIN 4 Gio is another back who might get a preseason bump. It’s all about how well Jeremy Hill comes along. If Hill is all they expected when they selected him in the 2nd round ahead of Carlos Hyde, Gio is going to lose a lot of the goal line and significant snaps between the 20s. This is a situation to watch very closely in August.
23 12 Andre Ellington RB ARI 4 Ellington leads a big tier of backs ranked near the end of round two for 12-team leagues. The reason he’s out front is because he is so entrenched as the lead back on his team. Arizona should give him ample opportunity in terms of volume, and his OL is going to be significantly improved compared to his rookie season. Remember, the Cards lost OG Jonathan Cooper (7th overall selection) last August. He returns from a broken leg at 100 percent.
24 13 Doug Martin RB TB 7 Like Stacy, Martin’s a guy who could move up or back depending on how his role shapes up in camp. The Bucs drafted Charles Simms, a player who could take the 3rd down role at some point. The Bucs are talking up a RBBC, but we’re still leaning heavily towards Martin because he’s the back with the most talent. Just don’t expect him to dominate the snaps as he was expected to in 2013.
25 14 CJ Spiller RB BUF 9 Spiller is an elite talent and all he needs to do is stay healthy to post robust RB2 stats. What makes Spiller such a value is that he can often be had in the late second or early third round and that’s a great place to draft a back with round-one upside.
26 15 Zac Stacy RB STL 4 Stacy could move up a spot or two if he locks up his job in camp. We have some mild concerns that rookie Tre Mason could cut into Stacy’s role in the near term. It’s more likely that it will happen over time, but a good August for Mason is bad news for Stacy’s value. In that scenario, Zac could get a downgrade. The one thing we don’t question is Stacy’s ability, which we liked quite a bit going into last year’s draft.
27 2 Julius Thomas TE DEN 4 He could become the second weapon in the offense with Decker gone and Welker showing some signs of decline. Newcomers Cody Latimer and Emmanuel Sanders are both potentially productive, but Thomas has the experience with Manning and the system and perhaps the most TD potential on the team. The one concern I have is with his feet. His ankles cost him the bulk of his first few seasons and he missed two games in 2014 with a typical sprain. He’s a very reasonable option in the 3rd round on 12-team drafts and I would not fault you for taking him late in round two if you have enough confidence to draft well late. That’s the thing about taking a TE early. You will need to find some value at RB or WR later on because you pass up on an elite option to take the tight end.
28 1 Peyton Manning QB DEN 4 As our readers know by now, we are not big on drafting QBs early. Late third round is where I start to consider them if there are elite options on the table. Of course, if your league awards 6 points for all touchdowns and a point for every 20 yards, you might consider the elites a little bit sooner. I’m still waiting for the 3rd round, though perhaps earlier in the 3rd. Manning is our first choice, but we can see good arguments for both Rodgers and Brees. I have no qualms with any of them as the first QB off the board.
29 11 Michael Floyd WR ARI 4 Yes, this is a bold ranking, and you may be able to steal him in the 5th round of many drafts. I just want people to understand how good we think this guy is … and he is ready to bust out in Bruce Arians’ offense. Teams can’t lean on him with Fitz on the other side, and the Cards have strengthened the offense overall this offseason. Good vibes here.
30 2 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 9 He's got a revamped (in a good way) receiving group and a stout ground attack. If the OL holds up, he could be the top QB when all is said and done in 2014. There’s very little chance of him being outside of the top five. Barring another bad injury, Rodgers will reassume his perch among the fantasy elite.
31 12 Keenan Allen WR SD 10 He's getting a lot of love from early drafts, and deservedly so, but I am somewhat concerned with his schedule which includes two games with an improved Denver D and four games against the oh-so-nasty NFC West. The rest of the news is good for Allen, who showed legit WR1 chops in 2013. He’s the focal point of the San Diego passing attack.
32 3 Drew Brees QB NO 6 I was ready to downgrade ( just a little) Brees this year after seeing some signs of decline last season. Then the Saints went out and drafted Brandin Cooks to more than make up for the loss of Darren Sproles. Brees now has a young trio of offensive weapons in Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Cooks, and he still has a productive Marcus Colston, which adds stability. Brees should post great numbers once again in 2014. He’s in a dead heat with Manning and Rodgers for the top spot based on our numbers, so trust your gut.
33 3 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 10 Here’s an extremely volatile asset. Gronk’s a reasonable selection a lot earlier than I have him ranked, but understand the risks of taking him there. Start by drawing a quick picture of the body. Now draw some x marks on all the areas that Gronk’s had surgery. Yikes. And, let’s face it, he’s going to keep getting hit by defenses that understand the value of getting him off the field. Ok, now the positive…. Gronk is probably the most valuable TE going when healthy. He’s on par with Jimmy Graham and perhaps even a shade better when you look at how he dominates in the Patriots’ red zone offense. It’s a play-to-win pick with huge downside if you take him in round two or even early in round three.
34 16 Ryan Mathews RB SD 10 Mathews is a back I want to push higher, but there are a few key red flags to be mindful of. First, he’s still a back with an injury history … though he played through pain in 2013 and deserves some credit for that. Second, Danny Woodhead really carved out a role last year and he should get plenty of snaps again in 2014. Third, the Chargers paid decent bucks for Donald Brown and we’re not sure how they plan to use him at this point. Last but not least, Mathews and the Chargers play a pretty nasty schedule this year. The Chargers posted nice numbers going against the NFCE in 2013. They get the NFCW in 2014—starting with Seattle in Week 1. All that said, Mathews played very well in 2013 and we like his chances of posting RB2 numbers in 2014. He’s better in standard scoring.
35 13 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI 4 I like Fitz as a WR1 or high end WR2 for 2014. He’s healthy and this is the best offense he’s had around him in a long, long while.
36 14 Andre Johnson WR HOU 10 He's a huge talent, so I can’t drop him much farther than this, but I worry about his QB situation and the new offense, plus the fact that he’s at odds with the organization. He’s also at an age where there is risk of decline. I like AJ as a WR2 with WR1 upside, and that’s what he is if you can nab him in the late 3rd or early 4th.
37 17 Toby Gerhart RB JAC 11 You could argue that Gerhart deserves more love and you could reasonably argue the opposite based on career production and a young talented depth chart in Jacksonville. We are TG believers because he’s a big back with legit football skill. He can play effectively on all three downs (very good receiver) and he was paid the kind of money that says he will get used heavily. Gerhart is not a sexy pick, but if you are in need of a RB in the early-to-middle rounds, he’s a solid option and we think he’s equally good in PPR formats … maybe even a shade better. Just don’t get too excited and reach for him in the early round. I would not consider him until the fourth. The Jaguars line is not a strength yet.
38 15 Percy Harvin WR SEA 4 I love Harvin, but he has to prove he can stay healthy. Ankles, hips and migraines lead the list of concerns, and his style of play puts him in harm’s way consistently. He’ll be a big producer as long as he’s out there but I want him as a WR2 and not a WR1.
39 16 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN 10 This is a player I am looking to draft if I can. I’m having trouble saying “no” once I get into the 4th round. It’s a rare situation where I am ok with reaching because we love Patterson’s potential alongside Adrian Peterson in Norv Turner’s offense. Last year’s coaching staff had some trouble using both AP and Patterson at the same time. Once Peterson was banged up, Patterson started going off. Norv Turner will get these two great talents working off of each other’s abilities. It’s not rocket science, folks.
40 17 Vincent Jackson WR TB 7 V-Jax is the lone established option in the Bucs’ offense and we expect him to thrive as usual. Teams will actually have a harder time throwing extra coverage at him with a deeper group of skill talent in Tampa this season. Mike Evans will also command respect and Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be a red zone monster. This is all excellent news for the Bucs QBs.
41 18 Pierre Garcon WR WAS 10 Will he get the same kind of volume in a new offense and with DeSean Jackson in town? Probably not, so we are not banking on a repeat of 2013 for Garcon. That said, he is a fine receiver and has the trust of his QB. We view Pierre as a very desirable WR2 option.
42 18 Reggie Bush RB DET 9 He’ll be in a time share, but he’ll also be playing in an offense that throws to its backs as it did last year. With a bolstered receiving group, there will be plenty of room to work underneath for Bush and for Joique Bell. Bush has significantly enhanced value in PPR formats.
43 19 Roddy White WR ATL 9 Throw 2013 out. The guy played hurt all year. Last season is not in any way indicative of what White brings to the table. He lacks the TD potential that he had in his hey day, but Roddy is still going to catch a lot of balls and will see the zone enough to give him solid WR2 value. He gets a small bump in PPR formats.
44 20 Michael Crabtree WR SF 8 Injury is always a concern, and there is more competition for targets in Frisco than at any other time in Crabtree’s career. Still, he’ll be the lead dog in the passing game and he’s healthy now. He makes a nice WR2 in any format, but you’ll want some extra depth if you are leaning heavily on Crabtree.
45 21 Torrey Smith WR BAL 11 He's got some post-hype appeal, and it’s not like the guy’s been disappointing. The only people reasonably disappointed with Smith are those who over-drafted him. We see a player making yearly strides and he should post his finest season to date in 2014. He’s a very nice value at his current ADP of 65, so you won’t necessarily need to draft him where I have him ranked. If you are patient, you can get him in the 6th round of 12-team leagues. For those in PPR, I think you can expect 70 plus receptions this season and an increase in touchdowns. He’ll get back to the 7-8 range and perhaps better.
46 19 Alfred Morris RB WAS 10 You can make an argument for taking him a lot higher, but we are very concerned that new HC Jay Gruden will revamp the offense in a way that will reduce the reliance on Morris, who is mediocre as a receiver to put it mildly. He’s a RB2 in standard leagues with RB1 upside if Gruden uses him as he’s been used in the past by Mike Shanahan.
47 20 Bishop Sankey RB TEN 9 He's young and unproven but he projects to handle the bulk of the snaps in the Titans’ backfield, and that’s worth plenty. The Titans blocked pretty well over the season’s second half and they don’t have to face the NFC West as they did in 2013. We see an improvement over 2013 on offense and Sankey will lead the way along with Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter.
48 21 Chris Johnson RB NYJ 11 I'm tempted to rank him a lot higher, but this is the Jets we’re talking about and you just don’t know what they’ll do with their backfield. Right now, with an ADP of 58, Johnson is a freaking steal. People get all worked up over his 3.9 YPC in 2013, but there are two big things to remember. CJ was still a RB1 when all was said and done, and he played all four NFC West teams during his 16 game fantasy schedule. The Jets are actually a better offense than the Titans were in 2013. Johnson is getting hugely disrespected right now and is a steal in the 5th round or even a round earlier. His knee situation (scope/cartilage repair) should be all cleared up by camp but we’ll be monitoring it. Johnson has missed just a single game over the last six seasons and has never come in under 1,000 yards in his career.
49 22 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 10 I want to push him higher but the Colts have an annoying tendency to play the wrong players at times. Just look at how long they stuck with DHB. Hilton is the best receiver in Indy now, but we have no confidence that he’ll play more then 70 percent of the snaps and that could limit him in terms of challenging the elite producers.
50 4 Jordan Cameron TE CLE 4 He's a proven playmaker and he’s the clear number one target on his team. I have no qualms about taking Cameron a little ahead of his ADP of 59, as long as you have a well stocked backfield when you pull the trigger. We like him in round five or later in 12-team drafts.
51 22 Shane Vereen RB NE 10 He gets a large bump in PPR leagues, and I’d rank him higher here if he’d EVER given us a good run of health. Vereen has huge upside, but he’s also suffered way too many injuries to trust as a core player. I like him in round five, but I’d go at least a round earlier in PPR, where he could really rack up points.
52 4 Matthew Stafford QB DET 9 He's our 4th QB this year, but I don’t plan on taking him at his current ADP of 50. Not when I can get Andrew Luck ten picks later, Nick Foles 20 picks later and RGIII 25 picks later. Stafford should be a lock for QB1 stats barring injury, but you need to wait for him and hope he slips a bit.
53 23 Trent Richardson RB IND 10 T-Rich could move up our board with a strong camp. We are not scared to draft him and we still believe in his considerable talents. His film from 2012 and during his Alabama years is very good. The Colts went all-in on Trent and they almost have no choice but to trot him back out there as their starter in 2014. Then you have to consider the positives of playing with Andrew Luck, who should be able to get Richardson involved as a receiver. He’s a value right now with an ADP of 54.
54 23 Mike Wallace WR MIA 5 All of Wallace’s fantasy arrows are pointing up from 2013. He’s in his second season with Ryan Tannehill and they’ve changed the offense in a way that should help Wallace with new OC Bill Lazor. Wallace seemed mis-cast in Mike Sherman’s offense. Not that many Dolphins excelled. The guy was canned for good reason. The last bit of good news for Wallace is his ADP of 69. We’re just fine with taking Wallace as our WR3 (a strong one) if we can get him in that area of the draft.
55 5 Vernon Davis TE SF 8 He should produce at his usual level. He may have to share more with so much new talent around in San Francisco, but he’ll also see less double coverage with more depth and a healthy Michael Crabtree.
56 5 Andrew Luck QB IND 10 He's a stud with better surrounding talent than he had in 2013. Draft him with confidence in round six or later, but don’t fret if he gets taken. QB is incredibly deep this year.
57 6 Nick Foles QB PHI 7 Luck and Foles are the guys I want if I can’t get a top four QB at a bargain price. He’ll be just fine without DeSean Jackson and he’ll be even better in year two of Chip Kelly’s scheme. He may not post the same absurd TD-to-INT ratio, but he’ll roll up good numbers.
58 24 Eric Decker WR NYJ 11 Decker’s currently carrying an ADP of 87, which is almost comically cheap. We’re targeting him between where we have him ranked and his ADP. I am drafting him in the 7th round or the 6th in tougher drafts and I am getting him almost every time. “Do likewise, gents. Draft him, he’s yours. You don’t, I got no sympathy for you.” Yes, Decker loses Manning, but he’s also going to get lead receiver targets. He’ll be a huge part of the Jets’ passing game and he’s proven to be a durable player. We’re not a stat-based site, but check this…. Decker was the 18th most targeted WR in the NFL last season, but he scored the 9th most in standard scoring and PPR as well. He out-produced for his target total. Now it’s fair to point out that Peyton Manning was his QB, but that’s still great production. He’ll be less valuable as a Jet, but he’s still a very solid WR3 (the price you pay right now) option with WR2 upside.
59 25 DeSean Jackson WR WAS 10 D-Jax was outstanding in 2013, but you’d be silly to assume that 2013 is a representative sample. It’s more likely an outlier. Outside of Chip Kelly’s offense, D-Jax has averaged 54 receptions as a pro. Do you really want to assume he’ll catch 82 again as he did in 2013? And, do we really want to bank on a second consecutive 16-game season? Jackson missed time in all five seasons before 2013. The odds say he’ll miss some time in 2014. Stay sober my friends. D-Jax has serious game, but don’t reach for him.
60 26 Victor Cruz WR NYG 8 I am not targeting Victor Cruz this season, but I am willing to take him if he slips a bit off of his ADP of 38, which we view as too high. While we do expect a bounce back season, we also see a player that’s flattened out a bit. He’s no longer drafting behind other talents and he’s not a lead dog. The good news is that he’s got some talented guys to run with in 2014. We expect Rueben Randle’s growth to continue and we expect Odell Beckham Jr. to be an outstanding receiver. That should make Cruz very effective out of the slot … but not at 3rd round prices. Not even in PPR.
61 7 Robert Griffin QB WAS 10 I can’t help but be tempted by Griffin’s upside, which he’s already proven. He should be 100 percent this year and he has some really good match ups. If I can get a good core built before I need to take him, I am giving him very strong consideration in or around the 7th round. The key is to get a solid plan B at the position because RGIII has four games against the NFC West this year and he’s an obvious injury risk.
62 24 Joique Bell RB DET 9 I‘ll bump Bell up a bit as soon as he shows that he’s 100 percent. He’s been struggling with knee soreness and his cuts are crucial to his game. Joique gets a nice 1-2 round bump in PPR formats.
63 25 Frank Gore RB SF 8 Gore has started to show signs of age and we are very concerned about how much playing time rookie Carlos Hyde could earn. Hyde is a damn near perfect fit for the 49ers. The coaching staff will love his game and his willingness to block as hard as he runs. Still, until we hear differently, Gore is the starter and should go over 200 carries again in 2014. He's a startable back as long as he's getting the touches. Rostering Hyde in the 11th or 12th round is a very good idea for those who choose to rely heavily on Gore.
64 27 Golden Tate WR DET 9 Welcome to the show, Golden. Tate has a Super Bowl ring and now he’ll have a chance to post some numbers in the Lions’ pass-happy offense. Well, ANYTHING is pass-happy after what Tate experienced in Seattle. He has a strong chance to post his best stats ever in 2014. Golden saw a lot of number one cornerbacks in 2013. That won’t happen much this season, with Megatron on the other side of the field. I like Tate a shade better than his ADP of 79. He’s got WR2 upside and a WR3 floor barring injury.
65 26 Rashad Jennings RB NYG 8 Preseason could affect his value quite a bit, but right now he looks like the Giants’ main guy. I have my doubts about Jennings’ ability to put an entire season together, so be careful about placing too much faith in him. We’re balking at his current ADP of 47. He’s never carried the ball more than 163 times in a single season, and he’s broken down a few times while getting medium to light work. He’s also got plenty of competition and a HC that’s shown a quick hook.
66 28 Marques Colston WR NO 6 We like him a bit better than his ADP in standard scoring formats. Colston closed out 2013 pretty well and should be able to tease ten scores if he can stay healthy in 2014, but he’s had knee woes for a while now, so don’t bet the farm on him as a WR2. Get him at WR3 prices or let somebody else have him.
67 29 Wes Welker WR DEN 4 We are concerned about the concussions and the totality of all the hits this dude has absorbed. That said, he’s still going to perform at a WR3 level or better when healthy, so he’s worth a look, but his ADP of 44 is way too expensive for us.
68 27 Ben Tate RB CLE 4 He's got a lot of upside if he can stay healthy, but he’s always a bit risky that way and he also has substantive talent behind him on the Cleveland depth chart. He could be a nice option early on, but 16 weeks of productivity is far from a lock.
69 6 Jordan Reed TE WAS 10 We worry about the concussions. Rotobahn led the charge last year with Reed. Nobody was talking about him as early as we were, but the concussions cannot be disregarded. If we were 100 percent sold on Reed’s durability, he’d be ranked a full round earlier. As it is, we have him ranked a round ahead of his ADP, so looking for him in round 7-8 is a good strategy that lessens the risk of taking him. Reed’s concussions risk could become more well known as the summer heats up, so his ADP should be closely monitored.
70 28 Stevan Ridley RB NE 10 Ridley could move up a bit with a big camp, but he’s hard to consider for a big move up our board when you look at his history of coughing up the football … and his job along with it. What Ridley has is big upside, especially in standard scoring. He could get a lot of scores and pile up the yardage as LeGarrette Blount did down the stretch in 2013. He could also fumble himself into a reserve role.
71 29 Lamar Miller RB MIA 5 Miller is placed softly right now. He could move up or back based on how the summer plays out and how healthy and in-shape Knowshon Moreno proves to be. Miller’s a talented back and could excel with enough touches.
72 30 Kendall Wright WR TEN 9 All he needs to do is start finding the end zone with a little frequency and I think we’ll see it happen this season. Wright gets a bump in PPR formats, but I think he’s got WR3 value in all leagues.
73 31 Julian Edelman WR NE 10 Edelman’s role should stay close to the same because Tom Brady trusts him and trust is huge in the NE offense. We still have some concerns about Edelman’s durability, but he toughed out plenty of nicks and bruises in 2013, so we trust him more than we did going into last year. He gets a bump in PPR scoring.
74 8 Colin Kaepernick QB SF 8 We see his arrow pointing decidedly up. They’ve improved his supporting cast and he’s got his top target back on the field. CK can beat you with his feet and his arm and that helps his fantasy floor. There will be some tough match ups because of his division, so getting a capable backup is advisable, but we think Kaepernick’s being undersold much the same way Russell Wilson is being undersold. You can usually get him in the 8th round and that’s good business from where we sit.
75 9 Matt Ryan QB ATL 9 He's a solid option though he lacks big upside in the wake of Tony Gonzalez’s departure. He’ll post respectable QB1 numbers and you can get him in the 7th round of most drafts. He’s not my top target at that stage, but I can live with him … no problem.
76 7 Greg Olsen TE CAR 12 I like Olsen a little bit better than his ADP though I am not predicting a huge breakout. What I do predict is a safe TE1 option with some nice upside as the top option in the Carolina offense. He should have a slight improvement on last year’s numbers.
77 10 Cam Newton QB CAR 12 Cam has been given nothing to work with in Carolina and his OL is a bit of a mess. While we still view him as a QB1 with elite upside, we aren’t going to bet on it with conviction this year as he will be breaking in a rookie as his #1 WR.
78 30 Terrance West RB CLE 4 West could move up or back depending on how he performs at camp, but we are excited about this kid. He’s got some special traits for a back his size. He could take this job at some point but Ben Tate has an edge with all his time in the scheme. Right now, I like West at his ADP of 90 a whole lot better than Tate at his ADP of 65. Both are potential bargains, but Tate’s more risky. I start considering West as early as round seven in 12-team leagues.
79 11 Jay Cutler QB CHI 9 Cutler is a potential steal in 2013 with an ADP of over 100. If you can get him as your starter in round nine, as I have been able to, you are ahead of the fantasy curve. His weapons are outstanding and he's in a very QB-friendly scheme. Perhaps most importantly, he is getting better protection up front. Only Jay's injury history is a worry at this point. Major value.
80 8 Jason Witten TE DAL 11 He's getting on in years and a decline is expected, but he should still post TE1 numbers in 2014. He’s a bit better in PPR versus standard. We’re not the biggest fans of Gavin Escobar, but if he is to take over, we see it happening in 2015, not 2014.
81 31 Khiry Robinson RB NO 6 He's being taken right around the 100 mark, so you don’t need to take him this early. Nevertheless, we see Robinson taking a big step in 2014 and being a startable back in 12-team formats. He’s got more bankable value in standard scoring, but we’re not at all afraid to take him in PPR. He should catch a lot more balls this year.
82 32 Ray Rice RB BAL 11 Rice could move up considerably if his expected suspension is shorter than anticipated. The rumor is 4-6 weeks, and that opens up potential problems if the Ravens run the ball well while he’s out. Right now, I am hoping someone else drafts Rice before I have to consider it. I’ll firm up Rice’s value once the length of his suspension is known.
83 33 Steven Jackson RB ATL 9 It’s the mileage. After 2,552 carries, it’s hard to buy into Jackson when he’s coming off of his least effective season as a pro. 2013 could have been a lot different if both Julio Jones and S-Jax had stayed healthy, but now we’re a year down the line. Things have changed. We’re more scared of rookie Devonta Freeman stealing carries and snaps than we were of Jacquizz Rogers last year.
84 12 Russell Wilson QB SEA 4 As I said in my Early Look at ADP, Wilson is one of the better values out there right now. He’s been a top 12 QB in both of his seasons to date and that’s not going to change.
85 32 Terrance Williams WR DAL 11 He has the ability to trash weaker corners and he’ll see a fair amount of those. He’ll also have some tough match ups against the NFC West, so he’s a WR3 whom you may want to bench on occasion. His 81 overall ADP seems about right to us.
86 13 Tony Romo QB DAL 11 We are believers when it comes to Romo’s fantasy value in 2014, but I am not going to invest much in him at such a deep position (startable QB depth is at an all time high) until he proves that his back is fully healthy. If he can do that, he’s got huge weekly potential with such a talented offense around him … and that includes the OL for a change.
87 14 Tom Brady QB NE 10 He's being ignored a bit because his weaponry is not what it once was. That said, we like Brady's chances of being better than he was in 2013. Gronk should be back for Week 1 and the rookie receivers are not rookies anymore. Brady can still be your QB1 in 12-team leagues, and you don't need to burn a premium pick to get him.
88 33 Mike Evans WR TB 7 Anytime you have this much TD potential, you are going to rank in the top 100. Evans could start slowly and he could have a learning curve. He could also rip things up against #2 corners and we think Tampa can give him enough red zone looks to yield WR3 value by year’s end. Evans is a special talent and his skills are well suited for fantasy value. Evans is an ideal high-upside WR4 option. His ADP has dipped a bit in recent weeks. He can often be had after 100 players have been taken. That’s good risk/reward if you can pull it off.
89 34 Rueben Randle WR NYG 8 Randle is a guy we like as most Rotobahn readers know. He should be locked in as a weekly WR3 or flex option this year with the potential to get into the WR2 discussion if the Giants get their act together. Randle is the most proven red zone weapon on the team.
90 35 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 4 He's never had so much upside, but he’s also had issues staying healthy and is not an exceptional talent. He could be susceptible to a challenge from rookie Cody Latimer at some point. Still, with Manning comes upside so we like him as a WR3. The problem is that he’s currently being drafted at the WR2 level ( ADP 63) and that’s too rich for my blood.
91 9 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 10 He's going around 100 (8th - 9th round) or so in most drafts and that’s a solid value. Rudolph can start for you if he’s heathy. He’s very capable of posting career year numbers in 2014. Rudolph is a nice talent and Norv Turner’s tight ends tend to produce good numbers.
92 36 Brandin Cooks WR NO 6 A good camp could move him up a bit, but we’re already buying in with this ranking. Cooks is legit and he’s just what the Dr. ordered for the Saints. We expect WR3 production.
93 34 Bernard Pierce RB BAL 11 He'll move up a bit if Ray Rice’s suspension is a significant one. We suspect that Pierce could do well in Kubiak’s stretch scheme. He’s a pure one-cut runner.
94 37 Kenny Stills WR NO 6 With an ADP of 124, you can probably get Stills a bit later on, but we think he’s a WR3 when all is said and done, so his value is somewhere inside the top 100. He picked up the Saints’ scheme quickly last season and they will use him even more in 2014.
95 38 Cecil Shorts WR JAC 11 I have all the faith in the world that Cecil Shorts will post good numbers when healthy, but I have reservations about his concussion history, so I will only pay WR3 or WR4 prices for him. He’s a solid buy at his current ADP of 99.
96 39 Riley Cooper WR PHI 7 Cooper is a serious touchdown threat because of his size and the way Philly can run the football. He was underrated in 2013 as we pointed out at the time, and he’s still a shade better than his ADP of 99.
97 10 Martellus Bennett TE CHI 9 He's a player who is still getting better. He’s an every-down TE that is a big part of the passing game and his red zone chops are top shelf. Martellus is a huge bargain at his current ADP of 145. Take him in round 10 or 11 if you want to push for value, and enjoy the stats.
98 11 Dennis Pitta TE BAL 11 Pitta’s a TE1 in 12-team leagues and TE1 caliber in 10 team formats as well. There’s some risk with Pitta in terms of the new scheme, but on its face, the new scheme looks like a plus, so we’re ok with some risk if there’s some extra upside on the table too.
99 40 Jeremy Maclin WR PHI 7 Maclin is a good player in a good system, but there are some concerns. He’s now a guy whose had an ACL, so his agility is not necessarily what is was. He’s also proven to be a player who gets hurt. It was mostly just nicks and sprains until the ACL, but will he get more durable with age? I also have some questions as far as how he fits in Kelly’s offense. He may be more of a bridge to the younger players. Maclin could be a nice fantasy producer, but no way am I paying the going rate (ADP 63.)
100 41 Marvin Jones WR CIN 4 As long as he’s listed as the starter, we see him as a top 100 talent. If they go back to Sanu for some odd reason, we will adjust, but we expect more consistency from Jones in 2014 and plenty of single coverage thanks to AJ Green on the other side and Tyler Eifert’s downfield ability.
101 42 Hakeem Nicks WR IND 10 He's got major talent if he can find his game and some health. He’s also got a great QB to work with. We may bump him up if he wins a starting gig and shows off healthy wheels, but this is a deep receiving group in Indy, so I’ll stay conservative for now.
102 35 Jeremy Hill RB CIN 4 He has the potential to move up a lot with a good camp, but with Gio Bernard in place, they have no need to rush Hill. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still an option as well. Read our scouting report on Hill if you have not already done so. He’s a serious talent.
103 36 Carlos Hyde RB SF 8 Carlos is a serious talent and he’s on a team that opens up serious holes in the defense. Only time will tell as far as how much he can earn as a rookie, but we like his chances at making an impact because impact talent is something the 49ers lacked in the backfield last season. One thing is for sure, if you are using Gore as your RB2, you will sleep a lot better at night if you have Hyde rostered as a handcuff. Hyde has RB1 upside as a starter in the 49ers offense. He’s one of our top dynasty priorities.
104 43 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU 10 Hopkins is a good player who will be a fantasy asset at some point, but he’s not the greatest fit with his new interim QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s a somewhat shaky bet to be a WR3 at this point unless the offense clicks. Having said that, there are other QBs in Houston and Fitz is certainly serviceable. Hopkins’ ADP is sitting at 117. That’s a pick I am very happy to make. While his floor may be shaky, he also has some very nice upside, especially if one of the stronger armed QBs gets a chance. Hopkins is a value target right now.
105 44 Aaron Dobson WR NE 10 Dobson is a guy I am willing to bump up a bit, but I need some good information on his injured foot before I do so. If he’s 100 percent, he could be a ten score receiver and he could tease or even surpass the thousand yard mark. He has that much ability and he’s got that Brady guy tossing him the ball.
106 45 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 8 We have a strong vibe that OBJ will be a useful fantasy option in 2014. Draft him as a WR4 or WR5 and expect flex level results early on and WR3 level production over the second half. Beckham is the kind of receiver who can do it as a rookie. He combines speed, quickness and technique with top shelf hands. Eli Manning is going to love him. He’ll be Manning’s security blanket and his best deep threat by 2015.
107 46 Sammy Watkins WR BUF 9 We love his game and that’s why he was our top ranked WR heading into the draft. Sadly, of our top five receivers, Sammy landed with the worst QB. Buffalo’s a tough enough place to play with the wind and the cold, but with a weak QB and the rookie curve, we see some risk drafting Sammy as a starter. He’s a 4th or 5th fantasy receiver with nice upside in our view. His long term is outstanding.
108 12 Zach Ertz TE PHI 7 He's no lock but he has a high ceiling in Philly’s offense. Ertz is one of the potential TE1s who you can target after the tenth round, but you need a plan B to go with him.
109 47 Justin Hunter WR TEN 9 His 164 ADP reeks of opportunity. Hunter has a bust factor, but he has WR2 upside right now if he has a good camp. I expect his ADP to rise between now and drafting season, but it would have to rise quite a bit for him to be over-priced. Right now, you can take him as a WR5 or even WR6.
110 48 Tavon Austin WR STL 4 We’re bullish on Tavon, who certainly struggled as a rookie. Still, for those who read Rotobahn last year, you know we expected some growing pains in Brian Schottenheimer’s sometimes overly verbose offense. Austin still has some risk, but we think his huge upside is being widely ignored. These kids get better as they learn, and Austin can create a score on almost any play. The Rams will find more ways to get him involved. They are crazy if they don’t. If you can draft him as your WR4, we like it.
111 49 Dwayne Bowe WR KC 6 Bowe is another receiver who could move up with a strong camp. We’re not loving his upside but his chemistry with Alex Smith seemed to improve as the year progressed and he is the clear cut top receiver in KC. If you draft him as your WR3 in 12-team leagues, he can probably deliver for you. He’s reasonably priced with an ADP of 108.
112 50 Reggie Wayne WR IND 10 Reggie could move up our board if he is showing off healthy wheels in camp, but at his age and with such a major injury, there’s little chance we’ll be targeting him if he moves up any higher than his current ADP of 87. Wayne’s obviously got more appeal in PPR formats. Wayne coming back at his age after such a serious injury is a great story that we’d love to see, but we’re not going to bet on it.
113 15 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT 12 Big Ben has better weapons around him than he’s had in some time. We are big on their rookie acquisitions and the addition of LeGarrette Blount solidifies the backfield on early downs if something happens to Le’Veon Bell. In fact, the combination of Blount on early downs and Dri Archer in passing downs could be scary. The Steelers also added some beef to the receiving corps with Martavis Bryant, and crazy speed with Archer if they choose to use him in a hybrid role. We think they will. The Steelers now have a wonderful assortment of size and speed throughout their skill positions. They can attach you in a number of ways and that should give Big Ben an edge he’s been lacking for some time.
114 16 Andy Dalton QB CIN 4 We are not big fans of his game, but his fantasy output is really underrated. He’s posted QB1 numbers the last two seasons because he is surrounded with talent. Wherever he throws the ball, it’s being caught be a legit playmaker. This year, folks will be scared off by new OC Hue Jackson, but with an ADP of 138, there is no reason to fear, only value to be had.
115 51 Jarrett Boykin WR GB 9 Rookie Davante Adams will have his day, but we expect Boykin to hold off the rookies for this season, because he’s proven that he can play and fits in well with Nelson and Cobb in 3-wide sets. And, the Pack play plenty of 3-wide sets.
116 13 Ladarius Green TE SD 10 Green’s a controversial asset because he’s a total projection at this point. Based on what we’ve seen on film at both the TE and WR positions, the Chargers should be looking to use Green’s downfield talents a lot more in 2014. Green has the kind of ability that folks wanted to believe Jared Cook had last year. Green is a better athlete with more ability after the catch. He’s also a serious red zone weapon. Don’t forget to factor in Philip Rivers and his willingness to trust his big targets. Keenan Allen is going to face double teams every week. The Chargers must find some more weapons. Green is the next best guy they have in terms of talent. I like him as an upside option right around his 12th round ADP (135).
117 52 Kelvin Benjamin WR CAR 12 They are going to force feed this kid and his role in the offense. Carolina went all in on Benjamin, whose size and athletic ability is exceedingly rare at the position. He has a lot of scoring potential because of his red zone ability and the lack of other options in Carolina. And, he has a QB. That helps. We also like the veteran receivers they have put around him. There are no better lead-by-example-types than Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant. Benjamin has big upside and a weak floor, so he’s not a guy to take as your WR3.
118 53 Danny Amendola WR NE 10 When healthy, this guy still has plenty of fantasy appeal, especially in PPR formats. The injury risk we spoke of last season was dead on, but his price tag is not nearly as high this year, so his weekly upside has more appeal. We’ll be watching Amendola closely this summer.
119 37 Maurice Jones-Drew RB OAK 5 The Raiders backfield has a lot of options and that’s our biggest worry with regards to MJD. Not only will he give up snaps to Darren McFadden, he could also lose time to Latavius Murray, who is an explosive back as we told you leading up to last year’s draft. MJD has some upside, but we are wary of the investment at his current ADP of 78. There’s better talent on the board at that stage of most drafts.
120 38 Knile Davis RB KC 6 He'll play more this year and could be on the fringe of flex value during the bye weeks. What Knile really has is handcuff value … and he’s got a ton of it. Look at what he did last year when Jamaal Charles was out. Davis is the rare handcuff who will replace a lot of what the starter leaves behind. The things to worry about with Davis are ball security and durability.
121 17 Philip Rivers QB SD 10 He plays a nasty schedule, but apart from that, he’s a solid matchup play at QB this season. Rivers was up to his old tricks in 2013 and we expect more of the same this season.
122 39 Chris Ivory RB NYJ 11 I don’t trust his ability to stay healthy and he’s not much of an option on passing downs. Ivory has upside if the Jets are scoring touchdowns on a regular basis, but that’s not something you want to bet on at this point. We expect incremental improvement on offense, but the Jets have nothing to hang their hat on offensively. No proven QB and a mediocre OL to go with average skill position talent. The Jets project as a below average offensive unit, so having their goal line back is not exactly fantasy gold.
123 14 Tyler Eifert TE CIN 4 Eifert is another Ladarius Green-type in that he could easily solve your TE1 position but he’s not a lock because he’s never done it before. It’s a pure projection. Eifert also has more competition for targets and does not have a top QB like Green does. On the other hand, Eifert is a more polished talent and was a high draft pick. Cincy wants to use him. I like Eiftert as much as Green, but he’s a much better value … often lasting 4-5 rounds later. Eifert’s competition for snaps comes from the FB position, the WR position and from the 3rd TE Alex Smith, who played 22 percent of the offensive snaps in 2013. If Eifert (played 60 percent of offensive snaps in 2013) can steal the 32-year old vet’s snaps, he can play the bulk of the offensive snaps in 2014. There’s plenty of room for both Eifert and Jermaine Gresham in the Bengals’ offense. Think Gronk/Hernadez in terms of how they function.
124 40 Christine Michael RB SEA 4 He's going to be active on game day this year and he’ll certainly be worth something, but unless Marshawn Lynch gets injured, it’s hard to envision Michael being more than a flex option. The other issue is Robert Turbin, who gets forgotten by too many. While we don’t project him to be as good as a healthy Michael, Turbin is a fine back with better passing game ability. He played ahead of Michael last year and he’ll have a role in 2014. The reason Christine is ranked so high is because of his value as a handcuff to Lynch owners and his upside.
125 41 Mark Ingram RB NO 6 He needs to have a healthy camp and preseason to hold onto this ranking, but we think the Saints want Ingram more involved along with Khiry Robinson. Pierre Thomas played too many snaps for a “glue” player. They need more production on early downs. Ingram and Robinson are the Saints backs to be watching right now.
126 42 Ahmad Bradshaw RB IND 10 Health is the key for Bradshaw. If he has a strong, healthy camp and outperforms Trent Richardson, he could be a trendy riser in drafts. We’ll be watching closely. Right now we project him to handle 30-40 percent of the workload behind Richardson, but that could change. The Colts are not going to give a season away and a healthy Bradshaw is a proven winner and an outstanding pass protector.
127 54 Greg Jennings WR MIN 10 He should be an asset in 2014. We expect a bump in production and a bit more weekly consistently in a better offense and with a potentially better quarterback. Jennings has one good year left if he can stay healthy.
128 55 Marqise Lee WR JAC 11 This kid is currently under the radar, but he’s got enough talent to become the Jaguars number one option some time this season. He’s definitely worth a look as a WR5 in fantasy as long as he wins a starting job and we think he will. Check out our scouting report on Marqise if you have not already.
129 15 Antonio Gates TE SD 10 We love Gates’ game and we do not rule out a return to glory by any means, but his second half was just horrid. There’s no way around it. At age 34, you have to wonder if what we saw was the beginning of the end. Gates averaged 42 yards per game over the final twelve weeks and scored only twice during that span. The hope is that, as teams begin to clamp down on Keenan Allen and as the Chargers use more of Ladarius Green, Gates will have an easier time getting open himself. It could happen, and that could get him back into the TE1 discussion, but we are drafting him as a TE2 for now.
130 43 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 12 He's in great shape according to reports, but will it matter much behind the Carolina OL? Will his health last if he’s constantly facing resistance on his side of the LOS? He’s probably the Panthers RB to own, but be careful to fall victim to preseason buzz.
131 56 Markus Wheaton WR PIT 12 Wheaton has talent as we noted in his scouting report last year. Sadly, his rookie season was derailed by injury. The good news is that, with Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, Wheaton should be starting opposite Antonio Brown. That should make him fantasy relevant as long as he doesn’t cough the job up in training camp. Rookie Martavis Bryant is the player most likely to make a move on Wheaton’s projected job. The more likely scenario has Bryant playing a more limited role as a rookie.
132 44 Danny Woodhead RB SD 10 We like him, especially in PPR, but we do worry a bit about what the arrival of Donald Brown might mean. The former Colts has three down talent and the ability to cut into the role of both Ryan Mathews and Woodhead. Don’t just blindly assume that Woodhead will retain all of his role. San Diego doesn’t care about his PPR value.
133 57 Andrew Hawkins WR CLE 4 He needs to get through camp healthy, but we like his chances at being a weekly option in deeper formats. The key is Johnny Manziel. Johnny Football’s ability to buy time with his feet could be huge for a talent like Hawkins, who can “uncover” quickly when things break down. That and the fact that Cleveland is woefully thin at receiver make Hawkins a player to pay close attention to. He has a nice weekly ceiling.
134 58 Jordan Matthews WR PHI 7 A strong training camp could move him up and a poor camp could move him in the other direction. Matthews was one of our favorite receivers pre-draft and we’re excited about what he can do in Philadelphia. The thing is, both Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin got contract extensions, so they may not force feed Matthews. We expect the Vandy star to be the Eagles #1 receiver at some point, but that point could be 2015, so don’t reach for him too much.
135 59 Anquan Boldin WR SF 8 He's a money performer and he probably still can be, but the 49ers will give him more snaps off this year and Michael Crabtree will be back as the number one receiver. That alone should prevent Anquan from reaching last year’s numbers, but the addition of Stevie Johnson plus the development of Quinton Patton should also cut into the veteran’s stats. We expect the 49ers to spread the ball around more than ever in the passing game. The guy who should gain value is the quarterback, because there will be more targets in 2014.
136 45 Tre Mason RB STL 4 He could move up our boards a lot with a strong training camp, but remember that rookie backs have often struggled to pick up Brian Schottenheimer’s offense. For example, Zac Stacy was inactive 2 out of his first 3 weeks last year. Mason is our best guess in terms of drafting a handcuff for Stacy. He’s also the one reason we’re a bit leery of investing too heavily in the Rams’ starter. The Rams used a 3rd rounder on this kid. They obviously like him. Tre was our 2nd ranked back going into the draft. Check out his scouting report if you haven’t already.
137 46 Darren McFadden RB OAK 5 Maybe he wins the job in preseason and we move him up, but I tend to doubt it. He’s also far more injury-prone than Jones-Drew, and we’ve factored that into his valuation. Lastly, we are concerned that Latavius Murray could steal carries from one or both of the older backs. That’s a potential value killer. Draft McFadden with caution.
138 47 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 We like his game and we like the fact that he’s got only Steven Jackson ahead of him. If Jackson goes down again, Freeman could be a fantasy starter. He could earn flex value even if Jackson stays healthy. We’ll hopefully get a better feel for this situation in training camp.
139 48 Pierre Thomas RB NO 6 PT led the Saints’ backfield in snaps last season and fantasy footballers have learned all the wrong lessons from that fact. Yes, Thomas’ inflated reception total made him a fantasy option in PPR formats and he had some flex value in larger non-PPR formats as well. Here’s the rub…. While playing 50 percent of the team’s snaps, Thomas posted numbers well below his career averages both running and receiving. His yards per catch was an ugly 6.7 (he was 9.1 in 2012) and his yards per carry was an even uglier 3.7. The idea that they will give him 50 percent of the snaps again is steeped in wishful thinking. It would take injuries to Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram for that to happen. We see Thomas as more of a 3rd down passing specialist in 2014. His fantasy value should decline in all formats. Pierre turns 30 in December.
140 49 Roy Helu RB WAS 10 Helu is an underrated talent and he could cut into Alfred Morris’ role even more than he did in 2013. Jay Gruden likes backs with all-around talent and Helu has it. He can run, block and catch the football. He’s a player to watch in training camp and is currently the best available handcuff for Morris.
141 50 Knowshon Moreno RB MIA 5 Moreno needs to get healthy or he could end up playing in a backup role behind Lamar Miller. Right now, we are higher on Miller, but Moreno still has a shot to take over in camp. Knowshon has better all-around skills, but Miller is younger, healthier and more dangerous as a ball carrier.
142 51 Fred Jackson RB BUF 9 Jackson could move up some if he’s projected to start or play ahead of Bryce Brown, but we worry about Brown cutting into the 34-year old’s workload as the power option. Jackson is the most workload dependent back in Buffalo, and he’d lose the most value in a 3-back rotation.
143 52 Darren Sproles RB PHI 7 He's on the wrong side of 30 and he’s in an offense that features a true stud back. While anything’s possible, and while Sproles is still a very good player, we are not betting on him playing the same number of snaps from scrimmage as he did in New Orleans. He’s being taken in the 70s (usually 7th round) in most drafts. We strongly recommend that you don’t do that … even in PPR. Don’t draft the name.
144 18 Eli Manning QB NYG 8 We like Eli to bounce back strong in 2014. Odel Beckham will raise the level of play at the receiver position and we expect better things out of both Reuben Randle and Victor Cruz compared to 2013. Manning should also get adequate pass blocking in 2014 after getting hit too early and too often in 2013. Right now, he’s a nice value with an ADP of 145.
145 60 Brian Hartline WR MIA 5 I have some concerns, albeit mild ones, that Hartline could lose snaps and targets to rookie Jarvis Landry. I also worry that Mike Wallace will get a larger share thus shrinking Hartline’s targets. Hartline’s a solid commodity, but do not buy into a breakout. It could just as likely go the other way. He’s a WR4 or a WR5 to us.
146 19 Carson Palmer QB ARI 4 Palmer misses too many throws and plays in too tough a division to be considered an elite option, but he has real value as a matchup quarterback, because he only has five games against the NFC West during the standard fantasy season. This year, the Cardinals play at SF in Week 17. That’s a nice bonus. It’s also worth noting that Arizona is at the Rams in Week 15 and hosting Seattle in Week 16, so playoffs match ups are looking bad. Draft this guy late in bigger leagues. Get some use out of him for 8 or 9 weeks and trade him before the deadline for more than he’s worth. That’s a decent blueprint for Palmer owners. The Cards have plenty of cake match ups through the first nine weeks.
147 53 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 12 The OL has slipped with two retirements and no high-quality additions. We also expect more of Jonathan Stewart in 2014 and that should reduce Williams’ touches. You never know, but DeAngelo looks like a depth player for fantasy purposes unless Stewart goes down in camp. Even if Stewart does go down, do not expect improvement from last year due to the OL and mediocre options outside. Teams will be jamming the box against Cam Newton and the backs.
148 16 Dwayne Allen TE IND 10 Allen missed last season with an injured hip, so we need to see him playing and practicing before we move him up our board. Having said that, Allen can be an every down tight end and he’s got Andrew Luck as his QB. Do not sleep on this guy in deeper leagues. He could end up surprising some people if things break right.
149 54 De'Anthony Thomas RB KC 6 We love his skill set in Andy Reid’s offense, but we’ll have to see how quickly he picks things up in camp. The “Momba” could be a PPR monster at some point this year or next. He’s a player to know about, especially if you play in PPR formats.
150 20 Johnny Manziel QB CLE 4 Right now, the media situation has the potential to kill his ADP and that could spell opportunity. Of course, we’re concerned about Manziel’s immature off-field antics ourselves. We still have full faith in his game, but this kid can’t get into camp soon enough. He obviously benefits from the structure of athletic life. Being rich and on his own is not something he’s apparently ready to do well. If he survives the next month or so, he’ll have a good shot, because future off seasons will be more structured. The bottom line is that, if he starts, he’s got a lot of fantasy upside. I like Manziel as an upside option if I don’t get a QB in the first ten rounds or so. Draft him along with a few solid vets and you can play week-to-week with your QBs and compete quite nicely. Of course, there’s still the possibility that Manziel is not named starter right away. In that scenario, he’s a late-round flier with big upside.
151 55 James Starks RB GB 9 With a stud like Eddie Lacy ahead of him, Starks is a strict backup, but he’s a good one who performed well for the Packers last season. Starks knows the system cold and has the trust of the coaching staff and Aaron Rodgers. He’s the guy Eddie Lacy owners should be targeting as a handcuff.
152 1 Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA 4 They are the gold standard, and you’ll have to pay for them.
153 56 Lance Dunbar RB DAL 11 Dunbar could be a playable asset this season in PPR formats and he looks like the back to own after DeMarco Murray in Dallas.
154 21 Alex Smith QB KC 6 Who knows? We worry that the foot points dry up a bit and they haven’t gotten him much new support. Smith is a decent QB2 who you can get cheap, but don’t over-draft him.
155 17 Jermaine Gresham TE CIN 4 Health is a big key for Gresham (offseason hernia surgery.) We have no doubt that he’ll play a significant role if healthy. There is a big media-fed misconception that Gresham and Tyler Eifert are in competition with each other. The reality is that Eifert is as much in competition with the receivers as he is with Gresham. Eifert’s future is as a receiving-first TE, while Gresham is a traditional in-line tight end. They can play together all game long if both are healthy and on top of their game. Gresham missed two full games last year and still played 79 percent of his team’s offensive snaps—this includes the post season. He’s essentially an every-down player. Tyler Eifert played just short of 60 percent of the offensive snaps. It’s pretty obvious, even without watching game film, that Eifert and Gresham usually play together when Eifert is in the game.
156 57 LeGarrette Blount RB PIT 12 He projects as a backup to Le’Veon Bell and he would make a very solid handcuff option for those who invest in Bell. Blount is not likely to have much stand-alone value in large redraft leagues.
157 61 Jerricho Cotchery WR CAR 12 Assuming he wins the starting job, Cotchery will have some value in deeper leagues as a WR4 or WR5. He’s the kind of sticky-handed tough-minded receiver who Cam Newton has never really had outside of Steve Smith. Cotch is currently an underrated asset with an ADP of 199. He’s worth more than that.
158 22 Josh McCown QB TB 7 He has to win the starting job though that appears likely at this point. We think the Tampa skill players are very underrated. It’s possible that their starting QB will be able to post relevant fantasy numbers. His ADP of 155 is reasonable though there are a few other good options in that same area. McCown doesn’t stand out as a good or bad value.
159 23 Sam Bradford QB STL 4 I want to hear good things about his knee before I consider him any higher than this. Bradford is yet another reason why waiting at QB has a lot of merit. His offense looks better this year, but the knee has to be accounted for.
160 58 Shonn Greene RB TEN 9 His value is still somewhat up in the air. He could move up if Bishop Sankey struggles in camp, but we doubt that happens as Sankey’s a good fundamental player.
161 59 Chris Polk RB PHI 7 Polk is the back to own if you want to handcuff LeSean McCoy, and we think he’s worth the roster spot in deeper formats. Since we expect him to be splitting what’s left behind McCoy with Darren Sproles, we don’t see much stand-alone value.
162 2 St. Louis Rams DEF STL 4 They just keep adding talent. No way they aren’t a DEF1 in our mind.
163 24 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 5 They helped him a little but their OL is a mess and it’s another new offense in 2014, though it’s at least a projected improvement over Mike Sherman’s mess. The guy’s never had an OC gig that lasted for more than a season. Tannehill should be as serviceable as he was last year.
164 60 Jerick McKinnon RB MIN 10 AP owners have a new handcuff option and we think McKinnon will do a very nice job if he’s pressed into action. He does have to win the job, so he has the potential to be moved back with a mediocre training camp, but we are pretty high on this kid. He’s an athletic freak with a blue collar mentality. Check out Jerick’s scouting report if you haven’t already.
165 61 Ka'Deem Carey RB CHI 9 Assuming Carey wins the backup job (training camp battle with Michael Ford), he is a very nice handcuff option for Matt Forte owners. Carey has the varied skill set that will play very well in Marc Trestman’s offense. If your league gives you adequate bench space, this is a player well worth handcuffing. He was a good get by the Bears in the 4th round.
166 25 Joe Flacco QB BAL 11 There's change with Gary Kubiac being brought in as OC. Flacco has a nice chance to bounce back in a proven system, and we think he has enough weapons.
167 3 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 4 They have added firepower and they’ll be playing with leads. They should also get Von Miller back at some point.
168 62 Kenny Britt WR STL 4 Britt could move up significantly if he takes control of the number one role in camp, but the Rams are deep, so this entire group is worth monitoring. Britt has a lot of TD potential if he’s anywhere near 100 percent healthy.
169 63 Robert Woods WR BUF 9 If he can beat out Mike Williams cleanly, he could have significant fantasy value. This is a camp battle to watch for sure. Woods and Sammy Watkins are a potentially awesome pairing down the road. Put Marquise Goodwin in the slot and this team is a matchup nightmare. Don’t forget about CJ Spiller’s speed in the backfield or Bryce Brown’s for that matter. The Bills have done some over-paying, but they do have an impressive array of speed and athleticism at the skill positions.
170 4 Carolina Panthers DEF CAR 12 We expect another rock solid season from Carolina.
171 5 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 4 Mike Pettine has the horses and a proven scheme. He should get a lot out of this defense with a pair of outstanding corners and good talent in the front seven.
172 64 James Jones WR OAK 5 He's a good player with something left, but as long as Matt Schaub is the QB and the Raiders are a poor team in pass protection, he could have trouble posting numbers. A switch to Derek Carr has some potential to help, but Carr may need some time.
173 65 Steve Smith WR BAL 11 We're ready to bump him up a few pegs if he’s having a big camp, but we worry about him playing in a lesser role and how he’ll adjust to a new offense. The Ravens have some other younger talent they want to get involved and that could be a factor as well.
174 18 Heath Miller TE PIT 12 He could be a bit better this year. His ACL injury occurred late in 2012. He’ll be a full season removed now and could be moving a bit better than he was in 2013. Miller could get back to being on the fringe of TE1 status in large formats. He’s one of the few established skill players the Steelers will return this season.
175 6 San Francisco 49ers DEF SF 8 They have value because they are so solid, but a slow start seems possible with major guys facing early suspensions (Aldon Smith) or coming back from major injuries (Bowman.) I’m still willing to roll with them as my defense as long as I don’t need to take them early.
176 7 New England Patriots DEF NE 10 This might be the best Patriots defense in a while from a fantasy perspective. Revis could help them get to the passer more by shutting down first options. He also cuts off a good portion of the field and creates interception opportunities for his teammates.
177 62 Bryce Brown RB BUF 9 This may not be the year for Brown in redraft, but with an aging Fred Jackson and with CJ Spiller headed into free agency next year, Bryce could have a huge boost in value by 2015. He’s also not a bad handcuff idea for Spiller owners if you can get him late in deep leagues. That said, without an injury to Spiller, Brown’s role should be limited.
178 19 Jared Cook TE STL 4 There are two arguments to be made with Cook. The anti-Cook will say that he basically hit his career numbers in 2013, and that means he is what he is—a player who will never really break out. The pro-Cook argument gives the player some slack for losing his QB early in the season and for having some trouble with Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, which is not uncommon. Cook could take a step forward if he settles and Bradford stays healthy. He could also benefit from better surrounding talent. Cook is a big play guy, but he needs some room to work. I could see him being a little more playable than he was in 2014, but I also think his ceiling is limited.
179 20 Eric Ebron TE DET 9 How quickly can he become a consistent contributor? We have little doubt that Ebron will make some plays and tease fantasy GMs at the bare minimum. However, we’ve seen rookie tight ends struggle so many times. It’s a rare bird that can fly from day one as Rob Gronkowski did. Ebron is not Gronk, but he does have a few advantages like Megatron and an established QB who can make the throws. Ebron should have some space to work. He absolutely has a chance, but draft him as a TE2 with upside. Don’t invest too heavily. He’s currently being taken in or around the 11th round and that’s a bit pricey for our taste unless he starts really ripping it up in camp and preseason.
180 66 Cody Latimer WR DEN 4 He's ranked here based on his talent and his proximity to Peyton Manning. Latimer could become a major factor if there are any injuries in Denver. He could also force his way into the lineup by playing better than Sanders on the outside, which is possible. As we said with Julius Thomas last year, all of Peyton Manning’s targets must be owned.
181 1 Matt Prater K DEN 4 If you are going to target a PK, then Prater would be the guy, but I recommend waiting for your kicker versus being the first guy to draft one.
182 67 Marlon Brown WR BAL 11 We like Brown’s game and we were somewhat disappointed when the Ravens brought in Steve Smith, who could cost Brown snaps. Still, Smith can play inside and Brown can still force his way into the action if he plays well. We think he’s a worthy risk late in medium to large drafts.
183 63 Jonathan Dwyer RB ARI 4 This guy is a legit sleeper. He knows the offense from his time with Arians in Pittsburgh, so that is not much of a projection. He’s also a nice contrast with starter Andre Ellington and could get a role at the goal line. His prime competition is Stepfan Taylor and this is definitely a camp battle to watch closely.
184 68 Rod Streater WR OAK 5 Another Raider receiver with a hope and a dream. Streater can play and he may end up with flex value in 12-team leagues. Why the Raiders went out and paid James Jones is a mystery. They need to develop the younger talent.
185 8 Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN 4 This is a very talented defense and they’ll get some players back after all the injuries in 2013. They also shored up the situation at cornerback with the drafting of Darqueze Dennard out of Michigan State. We expect them to continue playing good defense with CD Mike Zimmer, who departed to become the HC of the Vikings.
186 69 Harry Douglas WR ATL 9 Douglas has some upside and we like what we saw last year when he had to step in for the injured Julio Jones. One very reasonable line of thinking has Douglas retaining a lot of his newfound targets with Tony Gonzalez retired and the Falcons looking for options after Jones and Roddy White. The question is, can Douglas do it as a third receiver, and can he find the end zone with more regularity? We give a maybe to both. We’ll be keeping an eye on the Falcons in August. Will the Falcons 3rd weapon be Douglas or perhaps new TE Levine Toilolo? We want to get a better feel for this.
187 70 Doug Baldwin WR SEA 4 Doug Baldwin earned his contract extension. We’ve always been fans, but despite his current status as the starter opposite Percy Harvin, we can’t help but think that Seattle has some other plans on the outside. Nobody is talking about it, but rookies Paul Richardson and Kevin Norwood are really talented players. Norwood brings a little size to the table and that could get him involved at some point.
188 64 David Wilson RB NYG 8 Wilson is a very high upside wild card right now. He’s the most talented back on the Giants roster, but his neck injury and issues with the finer points of the offense kept him from fulfilling his promise in 2013. If the neck isn’t declared a non-issue, Wilson could go the way of Jahvid Best. More likely is that he gets cleared and then has the potential to really muddy the Giants backfield waters. He’s just a late-round flier for now, but he could move up fast if things break right.
189 9 Tampa Bay Bucs DEF TB 7 They have good personnel on defense and they’ve tweaked things a bit to fit Lovie Smith’s scheme. The signature move being the release of Darrelle Revis and the subsequent signing of Atlterraun Verner. This is a scheme thats produced fantasy numbers in the past. I’m fine with drafting the Bucs as my starter.
190 10 Arizona Cardinals DEF ARI 4 If they can get Antonio Cromartie healthy, they could have a scary secondary from an athletic perspective. That said, the loss of LB Daryl Washington will leave a mark, if not a worn path, because they also lost ILN Karlos Dansby, who signed with the Browns. Stopping the run could be a problem.
191 21 Jace Amaro TE NYJ 11 He has some real upside in PPR leagues, but he could easily struggle week-to-week as a rookie, so don’t go hog wild and reach for him as your starter.
192 22 Garrett Graham TE HOU 10 He should be the tight end to own in Houston and he could have some fantasy value. He’s worth a look late as a TE2.
193 71 Paul Richardson WR SEA 4 Here's a rookie who gets the love from dynasty owners but not redrafters. If you play in a large format, I can think of two very good reasons to draft our guy Richardson. First, he’s a great handcuff for those who take the risk on Percy Harvin. If Harvin gets hurt, Richardson’s value could explode. At some point, it will explode anyway. People don’t know about this kid yet. Most folks are asleep on Kevin Norwood too. This is probably one of the reasons Russell Wilson is so under-valued right now.
194 65 Andre Williams RB NYG 8 It's all about camp for the big banger out of BC. If Williams can play at 100 percent, he could wreck the balance of power in the NYG backfield. Right now, he’s a longshot for rookie value, but he could turn heads in camp and change that.
195 11 Kansas City Chiefs DEF KC 6 There's transition at cornerback, but they got poor performances at CB last year, so it’s not a big concern. Apart from that, there is a lot to like. KC has a nasty front seven that gets Dee Ford added to the mix and they have a great strong safety in Eric Berry. KC can be your starter in 2014 on most weeks.
196 2 Stephen Gostkowski K NE 10 He's right there with Prater and he’ll have another solid year feeding off of the Patriots’ offense.
197 66 Dri Archer RB PIT 12 The groupthink on Archer is that he’s not an option as a rookie and is just a special teamer at the NFL level. We disagree … vehemently. Dri Archer is a special talent in much the same way that Tavon Austin is a special talent. The only difference is that Archer wasn’t over-drafted and Archer got taken by a team that eats at the adult table. Pittsburgh didn’t use a 3rd rounder in a deep draft to take a kick returner. You can get those guys in Canada for the minimum salary. Archer is a player with blinding speed and quickness. He runs with great vision and he loves the game. He’ll have a rookie curve like anybody, but he should be getting drafted in deeper redraft formats and he’s not. He’s even being largely ignored in dynasty and long term leagues. Big mistake, folks. If you don’t know this player, do your homework. Start with his scouting report.
198 67 Latavius Murray RB OAK 5 He has to get through camp healthy but we think he’s worth a flier in deep formats. He could also be a handcuff option for those who choose to invest in MJD. Murray is a big back with serious wheels.
199 26 Jake Locker QB TEN 9 He needs to do several things to become relevant, but he has a chance because we like the talent they have these days in Tennessee. The Titans drafted a young QB recovering from an ACL injury, so 2014 pretty much belongs to Locker if he can stay healthy himself. That’s number one. Number two is continuing the improved accuracy he showed glimpses of in 2013. If both things happen, Locker could be a viable fantasy option in deeper leagues.
200 68 Lache Seastrunk RB WAS 10 Lache could move way up with a strong preseason, but based on the depth chart in Washington, he could be in for a season of learning. The thing you need to know is that this kid has major jets and is madly elusive. His upside playing with RGIII is very enticing. Right now, he’s a late-round flier in deeper formats, but training camp is huge, so stay tuned. Read Lache’s full scouting report if you haven’t already.
201 72 Denarius Moore WR OAK 5 Moore could get bumped down, but the thing is, he might be the Raiders’ best receiver and he has top 100 talent, so we’re keeping him up in the top 200 for now—even without knowing his role. If he regains his job as a starter, he moves up significantly. The Raiders’ top four receivers are all close. They could kill each others’ value.
202 73 Allen Robinson WR JAC 11 Robinson is a rookie so his season could go in a number of directions. We expect some big plays if he stays healthy, but finding consistency could be difficult and we’re not sure what his role will be early on. He has the talent to be a starter, and a good one. He’s got WR2 upside long term and WR3 potential as a rookie based on what we’ve seen on film.
203 12 Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL 11 The Ravens are a defense in transition, but they’ve added some very solid kids in the last two drafts. We think they will return to form in 2014 to at least some extent. They are a nice value pick as a DEF1 in 12-team leagues.
204 23 Marcedes Lewis TE JAC 11 He's got touchdown potential in an improving offense, but he’s still a deep option on draft day and only with a permanent roster spot in large leagues.
205 74 Andre Holmes WR OAK 5 Another Raider with potential and an uncertain role. If Holmes gets the snaps and targets, he could be a weekly fantasy option. The Raiders are one big camp battle.
206 24 Coby Fleener TE IND 10 Fleener is an afterthought right now and it’s understandable, but be careful. Andrew Luck’s been working with him for a long, long time and Fleener could begin to get it together in his 3rd season. He’s definitely worthy of a flier in deeper formats.
207 75 Steve Johnson WR SF 8 We expect a smaller role than he’s used to though injuries can change things quickly and Michael Crabtree is oft-injured. Johnson could be a unique WR handcuff option in deeper formats.
208 25 Charles Clay TE MIA 5 Clay was a product of an odd 2013 in Miami and we’re not yet certain that the Dolphins want him playing such a big role in 2014. That being said, Clay has proven that he can post some fantasy numbers, especially in PPR leagues. He’s a player to monitor over the summer for sure. Right now, he’s a low end TE2 in our view. That could change.
209 69 Charles Sims RB TB 7 The Bucs have a deep stable of backs with ability, but Sims has a real shot at playing time because of what he might bring to the team on passing downs. Sims has receiving skills that are rare for a RB. He’s definitely a player for PPR leaguers to play close attention to in training camp. He should eventually play in a 2-man backfield with Doug Martin.
210 13 Houston Texans DEF HOU 10 We like new DC Romeo Crennel and we like the defensive personnel. They get Brian Cushing back and they add a monster in Jadeveon Clowney to go with JJ Watt. They don’t play the NFC West again this year, so the schedule lightens up nicely. The Texans are a nice value pick right now.
211 3 Phil Dawson K SF 8 A solid kicker playing for a solid offense.
212 14 New Orleans Saints DEF NO 6 They’ll get plenty of use this season with Rob Ryan’s scheme producing results and they should get some leads too with Brees and company looking strong as usual.
213 15 Green Bay Packers DEF GB 9 The Pack should have some leads and that’ll help the defense. The key to the defense helping itself will be a healthy season from Clay matthews and a return to form for newly acquired sack man Julius Peppers, who will be playing OLB versus DE. That should be interesting. The other potential impact could come with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. There’s a Lewinsky joke in there somewhere, but we’ll stay classy on that. Ha Ha could really shore up the back end of the defense if he takes to DC Dom Capers scheme quickly. The Pack should be a reasonable starter on most weeks and are a nice matchup play.
214 76 Davante Adams WR GB 9 Anybody with Adam’s talent that plays with Aaron Rodgers is going to be on my radar. His time may end up being 2015, but if he has a big camp, who knows. He’s also one injury away from the regular rotation. He has some appeal in deep leagues even if he can’t beat out Jarrett Boykin. He’s a player to watch in camp.
215 77 Mike Williams WR BUF 9 The deal for Williams was yet another inexplicable move by the Bills, who seem bent on overpaying for talent as a way to make the EJ Manuel pick work. That being said, Williams is a talented player. If they can refasten his head, he could put his career back together. The problem is that Robert Woods is just as talented and Sammy Watkins is going to play no matter what. And, don’t forget to factor in Flash Gordon. You have to give the Bills credit for one thing … they are fast as hell. Spiller, Sammy, Bryce and Flash. That’s a whole lot of giddyup for one offense to have. Williams’ value will depend on whether he beats out Woods. Our money is on the kid, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.
216 4 Steven Hauschka K SEA 4 He's a good kicker and he’ll get plenty of opportunity in 2014.
217 27 Teddy Bridgewater QB MIN 10 They are assembling a team full of great athletes and they needed a quarterback that can get them the ball. That’s what Teddy does. He’ll get the ball out and hit the playmakers in stride. OC Norv Turner is a steadying influence with a proven track record. Teddy is a safe long term play in our view, and he could have a lot more fantasy value in 2014 than people realize. The issue right now is, will he start? We’ll move him up a rung if he earns the job. If he starts as the number two, then he’s a candidate to be a string free agent at some point during the season or a stash option in deeper formats.
218 5 Justin Tucker K BAL 11 A good kicker on a team that should attempt a fair amount of field goals.
219 26 Levine Toilolo TE ATL 9 He's a medium talent, but he’s got a big opportunity to gain value as he steps into Tony Gonzalez’s shoes. He’s a player to keep a close eye on in training camp. This kid could be worth a roster spot in 12-team leagues.
220 70 Denard Robinson RB JAC 11 We still love his ability and we think he could surprise a lot of people now that he’s fully healthy. Robinson will be a full time RB in 2014 and we think he has more talent than any of the other backs behind Toby Gerhart. In fact, he’s more talented that Gerhart too. The two could form a formidable 1-2 punch in time—perhaps some time this season. Denard is worth a deep flier in bigger drafts.
221 78 Vincent Brown WR SD 10 I'm surprised that the world has given up on this kid. He’s still very young and he has enough talent, but he’s also the kind of receiver who needs to find his way. Brown missed a full season with a major injury. 2014 represents his 3rd full season (factoring in a missed 2012) and his second season post injury. With a gaping void opposite Keenan Allen, I’m surprised that more people aren’t at least pointing out Brown’s opportunity. He’s the kind of receiver who could thrive working underneath with monsters like LaDarius Green and Allen stretching the field. Malcom Floyd was never a great talent and he’s well past his prime. Brown’s got more fantasy upside, especially in PPR formats. This is a potential position battle even though most outlets have already given the job to Floyd. We’ll know more in a month or so.
222 27 Travis Kelce TE KC 6 Kelce is a projection. He’s got talent and if his microfracture surgery proves to have been a success, he could make a big impact in a Chiefs offense that is short on playmaking talent once you get past their top two running backs. Kelce could get a little bump if he’s having a big camp and he could fall back off the map if he’s not moving well.
223 6 Robbie Gould K CHI 9 Gould is a guy I am getting in a lot of drafts. He’s a very solid option with a late ADP and relatively late bye week. Perfect.
224 7 Dan Bailey K DAL 11 Plenty of volume here. A solid option for sure.
225 8 Greg Zuerlein K STL 4 He's on an offense that should be better and he’s a big legged guy that kicks indoors and in a lot of west coast games. He can be your starter.
226 28 Delanie Walker TE TEN 9 He's no lock be be as relevant in Ken Whisenhunt’s scheme but Walker impressed enough in 2013 to be on the radar for 2014. We’ll be assessing his role and reading the the leaves as we move through preseason.
227 16 Detroit Lions DEF DET 9 New OC Teryl Austin has earned his shot and he has solid credentials. He also has a solid reputation in terms of working with defensive backs. That could be a big factor, because if the Lions get it together on the back end, their defense could get to the next level. They project to be a decent matchup play, but have the upside to be more than that. Sacks and turnovers could be happen in bunches with this group in they get things to gel.
228 9 Nick Novak K SD 10 Novak is a solid performer and the Chargers are a solid offense that should provide ample opportunity. He can start for you in 12-team formats.
229 29 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE TB 7 The reports on his left foot (surgery/stress fracture) have been good, so we expect ASJ to compete for the starting job in training camp. If he gets enough playing time, he has a chance to be fantasy relevant as rookie. His red zone potential is absolutely top shelf.
230 79 Chris Givens WR STL 4 There are too many receivers in St. Louis and they are killing each other’s fantasy upside. Givens is a good player but he may not be able to do much more statistically that he’s done in the past. I’m concerned with what his role will be once Stedman bailey returns from his (4 game) suspension around Week 5.
231 17 New York Jets DEF NYJ 11 The Jets lack fantasy teeth, though we expect better numbers this year with better safety play and perhaps a slightly improved pass rush as the young line comes into its own.
232 71 C.J. Anderson RB DEN 4 He's a compact power runner who was playing ahead of Ronnie Hillman at the end of last year. Unless Hillman gets his act together with pass protection and ball security, we think Anderson could be the more sensible handcuff option for Montee Ball owners. This is a position battle to watch closely in camp.
233 18 Minnesota Vikings DEF MIN 10 New HC Mike Zimmer has some talent to work with and we expect a step in the right direction. They will be a decent matchup play.
234 10 Blair Walsh K MIN 10 He should be solid, but it’s worth remembering that he will be kicking outdoors this year as the Vikings construct their new stadium.
235 11 Alex Henery K PHI 7 He's mediocre, but the Eagles’ offense is a potential juggernaut, so I see PK1 value for Henery unless he coughs up the gig somehow which seems unlikely.
236 72 Stepfan Taylor RB ARI 4 He's going to be battling with Jonathan Dwyer for playing time behind starter Andre Ellington. Taylor lacks explosiveness, but is a good overall back with size. Dwyer has a little more appeal as a fantasy option, but it’s a legit competition.
237 12 Matt Bryant K ATL 9 He should be a good option … kicking indoors for a good offense.
238 80 Marquess Wilson WR CHI 9 His value could be as an injury replacement if one of the big two goes down, but Wilson should add something to the mix in Chicago. The size the Bears now have with their four primary targets is impressive to put it mildly. Wilson should post significantly better numbers than Earl Bennett.
239 28 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB HOU 10 As uninspiring as he is (Just ask Andre Johnson), Fitzpatrick could be a fantasy option as a QB2 in large leagues. He’s a solid player and he’ll have outstanding weapons. He’s going to have his share of good days.
240 30 Adrien Robinson TE NYG 8 He needs to show something in preseason to show us that he’s more than a hot topic. This kid has a huge opportunity and he could become revenant for fantasy purposes if he wins the starting job.
241 13 Adam Vinatieri K IND 10 He's a great kicker though probably with less range than in his younger years. The bottom line is that he’s indoors and playing for a strong offense with a stud QB. He can start for you.
242 73 Ronnie Hillman RB DEN 4 We project him to be the backup and best handcuff option for those who invest in Montee Ball. That said, we do not see all that much stand-alone value unless Hillman raises his game.
243 81 Kenbrell Thompkins WR NE 10 Thompkins should improve in year two though we don’t expect big fantasy output unless there’s an injury to either Aaron Dobson or Julian Edelman. Right now, we project Thompkins to be batting with Brandon LaFell for fourth in the pecking order at receiver. Then again, things can change fast in New England so stay tuned.
244 14 Mason Crosby K GB 9 We expect the Pack to rack up the points and that should make Mason a solid starting option.
245 74 Robert Turbin RB SEA 4 Here's another guy who is getting written off way too soon. Turbin is a very good back and he could easily torment Christine Michael’s legions of admirers by sharing time with Michael in the event of Marshawn Lynch injury. He’s a better player in passing situations and he’s a capable early down runner too.
246 82 John Brown WR ARI 4 Go to The Rotobahn and check out his scouting report if you want our full take on what Brown can do for you. The kid is a name to know for sure and he could make an impact if he beats out Ted Ginn for the #3 jon in Arizona. Brown has appeal in long term formats and he could hit big of Larry Fitzgerald ends up getting traded next offseason.
247 83 Jarvis Landry WR MIA 5 He may get moved down if he has a lackluster training camp and he could move up a bit with a strong one. Landry has strong appeal for those who play in PPR formats, but he’s a rookie, so you never know how long he’ll take to get caught up to the speed of the NFL. Check out Landry’s scouting report in The Rotobahn if you haven’t already.
248 19 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT 12 The LBs are going to be a force and we like the addition of Mike Mitchel at safety. We expect DC Dick LeBeau to get something out of this year’s group. The Steelers should be a fantasy factor in deeper leagues.
249 75 Bilal Powell RB NYJ 11 Don’t forget about this guy. The Jets like to run the ball and Chris Ivory is not a durable back. Powell’s established and productive on all three downs and he’s stayed healthy as a pro. He’s worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.
250 31 Luke Willson TE SEA 4 In an offense searching for targets with some size, Willson is an appealing sleeper in large formats. He has a shot at carving out a regular role if he can step his game up in his second season.
251 76 Kendall Hunter RB SF 8 We are big fans of Hunter and he’s gotten most of his game back after missing time in 2012 with an Achilles. His problem is rookie Carlos Hyde, who should be the heir apparent to Frank Gore. Hunter could have a smaller role this season if Hyde is ready to contribute and we think he will be. Hunter is still a legit NFL talent and things can change, so he’s a player to know about.
252 29 Chad Henne QB JAC 11 Henne should have the job for most of the 2014 season, but if rookie Blake Bortles performs well in practice, he could close the season out, since he is the presumptive long term starter. Henne is a bye week option while he starts.
253 77 Donald Brown RB SD 10 He's now behind Ryan Mathews for early down work and he’s behind Danny Woodhead (we think) for passing down work. How much work Brown gets if both Mathews and Woodhead remain healthy is an open question. My guess is not all that much.
254 78 Mike Tolbert RB CAR 12 It's hard to tell what Carolina will do with Tolbert assuming they really do have Jonathan Stewart healthy for this first time in forever. My guess is that Tolbert gives you about he gave you last year.
255 30 E.J. Manuel QB BUF 9 He's a guy to watch because he’s a good athlete if they can get him back to 100 percent. He also has a ton of skill talent around him, so just some reasonable proficiency on his part could lead to very nice production.
256 79 Andre Brown RB HOU 10 Brown can play but he’s had plenty of injuries. He’ll need an Arian Foster injury to be a big story in 2014, but it’s not like that’s out of the question or something.
257 31 Geno Smith QB NYJ 11 If he continues to use his feet as he did at the end of 2013, Smith could become a fantasy option, but his floor is shaky and the presence of Michael Vick is a problem.
258 15 Shayne Graham K NO 6 He needs to keep the job, but he’s a startable asset for fantasy as long as he is the man.
259 84 Nate Burleson WR CLE 4 Nate could be a factor, but he’s been getting hurt at an alarming rate lately as that’s not a good sign for a run-after-the-catch guy. If he lands a starting gig, he’ll be draft-able.
260 85 Malcom Floyd WR SD 10 He's 32 and he’s coming off of a major injury. And, even though he’s a bit of a name, Malcom Floyd has never produced over a full season. He’s never posted 900 yards receiving. He’s never scored more than six touchdowns. He’s played in plenty of good offenses over his career. He’s got a name because he makes big plays. He won’t make enough of them to help you much in 2014.
261 86 Da’Rick Rogers WR IND 10 So much depends on how Hakeem Nicks plays and how healthy reggie wayne is, but we are big fans of what rogers could do in a full time role. He’s been with Indy for a while now without making waves. His time could be coming and if he hits he could hit big because of Andrew Luck’s ability to deliver the ball.
262 87 Nate Washington WR TEN 9 The hope is that he begins to give way in favor of Justin hunter, but Washington should still see pretty major snaps and is a good player. He can help deep leaguers during the bye weeks.
263 32 Jeff Cumberland TE NYJ 11 Cumberland is a very underrated asset in the Jets passing attack, because he can actually make some plays. He’s got more upside than a lot of people realize. He’s worth rostering in really big formats.
264 80 Isaiah Crowell RB CLE 4 Here's a super sleeper that will need some help to get a chance. Go to The Rotobahn (top toolbar) and check out our 2014 scouting reports. Start with Crowell, who has the ability to be a star tailback in the NFL. What he needs is some seasoning and a chance. He may not get a chance playing behind Ben Tate and Terrance West, but he’s a player to monitor, especially in long term leagues.
265 88 Marquise Goodwin WR BUF 9 Goodwin is a home run hitter and we expect him to hit a few more this year than he did as a rookie. teams will already be stressed having to deal with CJ Spiller and Sammy Watkins. Goodwin’s speed will be a matchup nightmare for secondaries that lack quality depth and that’s half of the league. I love this guy as a late rounder in best ball scoring formats, because he can really make an impact that way and he’s dirt cheap right now.
266 89 Jarius Wright WR MIN 10 He's a talented receiver who could be in the right place at the right time. The Vikes have a nice young QB and Wright’s gotten a little better each season. We expect another step forward in 2014, though fantasy relevance may not happen unless he clearly beats out Jerome Simpson for the 3rd receiver role.
267 81 Theo Riddick RB DET 9 If you read our rookie reports last year then you know we like Riddick’s all-around ability. He could definitely carve out a role as a RB/WR hybrid with the ability to play in the slot and do it well. He’s a player to watch in training camp.
268 33 Jermichael Finley TE N/A 0 If he signs and shows good health, he could be a factor, but that has to play out. I’m not drafting Finley unless he plays in the preseason. The neck injury is a major red flag.
269 34 Gavin Escobar TE DAL 11 Can he find a way to get enough snaps and subsequent targets? We think Escobar is a 2015 breakout versus a 2014. Jason Witten should have one solid year left.
270 82 Dexter McCluster RB TEN 9 It's hard to figure if Ken Whisenhunt can utilize him as well as Andy Reid did last season. For fantasy purposes that is.
271 83 Jordan Todman RB JAC 11 He's a guy to watch in camp, because he has a lot of talent, but we are a bit higher on Denard Robinson as the “quick” back in the Jags backfield.
272 35 Owen Daniels TE BAL 11 He's lost a step and he projects to be more of a role player, but a few injuries to any of the receivers could open up more opportunity for Daniels, who obviously knows Gary Kubiak’s system like the back of his hand. If Daniels is having a big camp, he could move up.
273 90 Brandon LaFell WR NE 10 You really never know with the Patriots, but LaFell will have a tough time making a big impact with all of the other solid options in New England. A strong camp could move him up and there is certainly the possibility of a hybrid WR/TE role like Aaron Hernandez used to have. LaFell’s blocking ability makes that something to look out for. Right now, he’s an option in only the deepest of leagues.
274 91 Miles Austin WR CLE 4 His hamstrings are a huge red flag to us. Austin has had huge troubles getting game-ready the last few seasons and he had big incentive to do so. He has an opportunity here, but I am aiming higher when looking for a late round flier.
275 92 Jerrell Jernigan WR NYG 8 He's getting squeezed out in the numbers game, but this guy can produce good number out of the slot if he gets the chance. If there’s an injury to Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle or Odell Beckham, you should run to the wire and grab Jernigan, who we have rated ahead of Mario Manningham.
276 93 Mohamed Sanu WR CIN 4 He should be the 3rd receiver and that’s not necessarily as prize with a team that is looking to run a lot of two TE and has a great pass-catching RB. Sanu will need to really earn his playing time.
277 36 Richard Rodgers TE GB 9 We did not love Rodgers game film as much as Green Bay obviously did, but you have to respect this kid’s potential if he is Aaron Rodgers’ TE. He’s in a training camp battle with Brandon Bostick among others, so he’s a potential asset at this point, but far from a lock.
278 94 Donnie Avery WR KC 6 He's incredibly unexciting, but he’ll have some appeal in deep formats as bench fodder is he hangs onto the starting gig.
279 95 Jeremy Kerley WR NYJ 11 He could end up being the most targeted Jet after Eric Decker, so he’s worth a look in really deep formats.
280 84 Vick Ballard RB IND 10 Ballard has a chance to move up. His value depends on at least four things. First and second are his health (ACL recovery) and then his performance. Three and four are the performances of both Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. Ballard has a chance to be draft-able if he’s looking good in training camp.
281 37 Brandon Bostick TE GB 9 Bostick flashed potential in 2013, but he has to win the job. His primary competition will come from Richard Rodgers and Colt Lyerla … and potentially Jermichael Finley if the Pack brings him back.
282 85 Lorenzo Taliaferro RB BAL 11 We are not the biggest fans of his game film, but the Ravens liked him enough to draft him and with the Ray Rice situation, the rookie has a better chance at meaningful playing time. He does have some size and some speed and it’s a that fits one-cut backs. He’s a player to watch in training camp.
283 96 Chandler Jones WR CLE 4 He needs to make a splash as a rookie UDFA, but we like his game and we like his situation. Cleveland’s dire need is going to be somebody’s gain. Jones could be one of the somebodies.
284 97 AJ Jenkins WR KC 6 We liked him coming out and expected him to do well in Frisco. Sadly, Jenkins has struggled but there are whispers that he might be ready to play more snaps and that makes him a player to watch. There’s infinite opportunity for any player that can help in the Chiefs in the passing game.
285 98 Kevin Norwood WR SEA 4 Seattle lacks size on the outside and we see Norwood as a game-ready guy, so he’s worth keeping tabs on in training camp. Read his full scouting report at The Rotobahn if you haven’t already.
286 16 Nick Folk K NYJ 11 He's settles in since going to NY and he’s a decent option if you select your kicker late in a large league.
287 32 Matt Schaub QB OAK 5 I'm not drafting Schaub outside of 2QB formats. There’s just not enough upside when you consider the depth of the position. Leave him for the waiver wire.
288 99 Quinton Patton WR SF 8 He's probably going to get buried on a really deep depth chart that features three established veterans, but Patton should have some kind of role and we like his future quite a bit. This kid loves the game and he plays like it.
289 86 Alfred Blue RB HOU 10 He got our attention playing at LSU and it’s no knock to play behind Jeremy Hill. In 209 career attempts for the Tiger, Blue averaged 6.0 yards a carry. Not bad considering the teams they play every year. Blue also benefits from playing in Cam Cameron’s pro style offense. The NFL will not be that shocking for a guy who played four years in the SEC. It’s not surprising that Blue looked good in OTAs and drew praise from HC Bill O’Brien.
290 87 Cierre Wood RB BAL 11 Cierre is an underrated talent that could do well if given some touches, and it’s not beyond the realm that he gets a chance this year with the Ravens, who are looking for some answers at RB after last season. Wood was with new OC Gary Kubiak in Houston, so the zone scheme is not new to him.
291 88 Benny Cunningham RB STL 4 He displayed adequate skills last season and he could have a role if rookie Tre Mason struggles with the offensive system. Cunningham contributes on special teams, so he should be safely off the roster bubble.
292 38 Virgil Green TE DEN 4 He's a talent and they will start finding more ways to get him involved. Julius Thomas broke out last year and owns the job at TE, but Thomas has had ankle issues for years. If Orange Julius goes down, Virgil is the guy we’d add off of waivers, not Jacob Tamme, who offers little other than soft hands.
293 100 Tiquan Underwood WR CAR 12 He's fast and he’s feisty, so he’s a guy to watch on a Carolina depth chart bereft of big play ability. If Underwood wins a starting job, which is possible though not probable, he’d have some fantasy appeal.
294 101 Tavarres King WR CAR 12 There's opportunity in Carolina, especially if you have speed and the ability to make plays downfield. Tavarres has that, and he’s had a full offseason as a panther, so he could make some waves with a strong training camp. He’s a player to watch.
295 89 James White RB NE 10 White has the look and feel of a depth player in 2014, but we like his overall game and definitely feel that he’s an NFL back. He’s a great fit for the Patriots and has all the things you look for in their system. He could post some solid fantasy numbers if he somehow got the job, but a lot would have to happen for that to occur this season. He’s a player to keep and eye on in training camp.
296 17 Dan Carpenter K BUF 9 He's a very good kicker and he could be startable as long as Buffalo can get some kind of reasonable QB play. The issue with Carpenter in those late season tilts in windy Buffalo.
297 102 Ted Ginn WR ARI 4 He's going to be in a training camp battle with rookie John Brown. A clean win would give him some limited fantasy appeal in big formats and best ball leagues.
298 90 Mike James RB TB 7 James will be in the competition for snaps and carries but he’s also fighting for a roster spot. If he wins the backup job, he’s a solid handcuff, but rookie Charles Sims appears to have the edge on the competition at this point. James’ 2013 season ended when he broke his ankle in November. The shame of it is that he was ripping it up on Monday night Football when he went down. That performance was an eye opener for some, and it could help him land a job if Tampa lets him go.
299 103 Josh Huff WR PHI 7 Huff may get pushed out of the top 300 unless he has a strong camp, but this is talented player that knows Kelly’s system from his days at Oregon, so we’ll be keeping an eye on him in training camp. Go to The Rotobahn for Huff’s full scouting report.
300 91 Ryan Williams RB DAL 11 He should be the backup for Demarco Murray in terms of early downs and goal line work assuming he beats out Joe Randles. The thing is, how much value is there with an injury-prone handcuff? My feeling is that it’s better to roster Lance Dunbar, because he’s proven in their system and he’s got a better chance to stay healthy.
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