Rotobahn

The WR Plan

Rotobahn Gets Serious With Receivers
By: Pete Davidson : August 23, 2011 11:24am

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We’ve taken an in-depth look at quarterbacks and running backs. Now we want to pay some special attention to the receivers. The depth at the top is not what it once was, and getting an elite receiver early should be a priority in any straight draft. In auctions, be prepared to dish out big bucks for your top two receivers--they’re worth it. These players will be nearly impossible to trade for.

The plan for drafting receivers is actually the least complex of the big three positions. There are three things we want you to focus on.

First, get as many receivers as you can from tiers one through five. We see these players as being high-probability difference-makers. We’ve been able to land 2-3 of these players in most of the drafts we’ve participated in, and we’re very happy with the way those teams look.

Obviously, how things break down is going to depend largely on what pick you draw. Teams in the top half of round one start off with stud RBs, and then get two chances at tier two and three receivers in rounds two and three. It’s a great position to be in. For those drafting later, you need to keep your head on a swivel.

You may have to take some chances to avoid reaching in round two. For example, yesterday I took Calvin Johnson at ten overall and still took Larry Fitzgerald in round two. I did it because I wanted to take the most valuable asset early. It’s a risk that may or may not pay off. That’s life near the end of round one. I’m not reaching for the likes of Peyton Hillis or Ahmad Bradshaw when there is a stud like Fitz on the board. The draft is still underway due to its offline format, so I don’t know how heavy a price I will pay for taking Fitz, but I still feel good about the decision.  If I have to reach for a back, I’d rather do it in rounds three or four versus round two.

In 12-team leagues, the fourth and fifth rounds are huge. The top talent runs out right around then depending on how many quarterbacks and tight ends get taken, and how many bad picks are made. Teams that draw early picks will draft early in round five right around fiftieth overall. This is yet another advantage of having a top pick as there are still a few great players left at that point. You can bank on there being value there, and the teams that draft at the end of round five can’t. They need some luck.

The second thing we want you to focus on is to not force drafting your third receiver early--unless that player meets the criteria mentioned above. We love the idea of having three receivers after five rounds, but only if our third receiver is a guy like Santonio Holmes or Brandon Marshall. Once you get past that level, you get to a very large group of receivers that all have potential, but who also carry extra risk. You will be able to draft solid WR3 candidates throughout the middle portion of the draft, so don’t force it. You can wait the position out if there are better opportunities in rounds five through nine.

For this reason, round five is a great place to just take the best player on the board. It therefore helps if you have a lot of options OPEN going into round five.

Once we get past the tier five receivers, we look at the tier six receivers but we also start to look at the tight ends and quarterbacks. If we see a value there, we are willing to go after it. If not, we look to take the highest rated back or receiver and continue to build the core of our team. This works!

The final tenet for our WR Plan is too take your WR5 through WR8 late. In big drafts, you can find great sleeper receivers after 120 players are gone. So, don’t be afraid to wait until the second half of the draft to stock your depth at receiver. We’ve seen guys like Devin Hester, Mike Sims-Walker and Deion Branch going undrafted. You can fnd WR depth very late. Take advantage of that by building RB depth a bit earlier while the quality upside guys are still around.

With all that said, let’s take a look at the top 100 receivers as of August 23rd.

 

 

RANK	ADP	PLAYER	POS	TEAM	BYE	Pts	THE SKINNY	Tier
1	9	Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	11	225	He noses out Megatron due to his more stable QB situation.	1
2	10	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	9	220	Matt Stafford, if he can stay healthy, could unlock CJ’s full potential in 2011.	1
3	22	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	6	210	A return to greatness now that he has an NFL QB.	1
4	11	Roddy White	WR	ATL	8	190	We expect him to keep it going. Draft him with confidence.	1
5	18	Greg Jennings	WR	GB	8	182	A true stud and Green Bay’s #1. He’s solid value in round two.	2
6	17	Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	7	180	Health is his only issue and he’s healthy now. A stud you can nab in round two.	2
7	23	Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	11	180	Another climber like Nicks, he is a legit WR1.	2
8	29	Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	6	179	He was inconsistent, but his hot streak was epic. He’s a WR1 for 2011.	2
9	28	Miles Austin	WR	DAL	5	168	Miles is at the top of tier three. We expect good things in 2011 with Romo back.	3
10	26	DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	7	165	His talents are rare. Nobody can cover him man-to-man. A WR1.	3
11	25	Vincent Jackson	WR	SD	6	164	V-Jax will return with a vengeance. Rivers makes him a very safe selection.	3
12	24	Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	11	155	He’s fading, but we expect fringe WR1 numbers. He’s the start of tier four.	4
13	41	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	5	152	He’s one of our favorite breakout candidates. He’s a bit risky, but huge upside.	4
14	33	Mike Williams	WR	TB	8	150	We like him, but he’s no bargain in 2011.	4
15	42	Brandon Marshall	WR	MIA	5	150	He’s perking up a bit lately. This guy has tons of upside at his current ADP.	4
16	62	Santonio Holmes	WR	NYJ	8	140	He’s limited by Mark Sanchez, but he’s still a #1 on his team and a top flight guy.	5
17	63	Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	9	140	He should be an even better player in 2011 and they will find ways to use him more.	5
18	45	Brandon Lloyd	WR	DEN	6	140	We like him to continue his great play, but we do worry about injuries.	5
19	39	Marques Colston	WR	NO	11	140	We worry about the knees, but he still makes a nice WR2.	5
20	88	Mario Manningham	WR	NYG	7	139	A riser. His role is locked in and he should produce WR2 numbers.	6
21	43	Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	7	134	Lots of upside, but his illness has left him depleted physically. He has upside if you can get him in round five.	6
22	46	Wes Welker	WR	NE	7	134	We’re feeling better about Welker. He’s healthier than last year.	6
23	49	Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	7	134	Johnson is a nice upside pick for those willing to gamble a little.	6
24	54	Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	5	132	Can he bounce back? We think he improves, but not to previous levels.	6
25	55	Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	6	128	Tavaris is killing his value. We’d still take him as a strong WR3 if he’s available.	6
26	53	Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	6	126	Another risk-taker’s delight. Huge upside, but his legal woes are legendary. The hamstring is an issue too.	6
27	69	Pierre Garcon	WR	IND	11	124	Nice upside if you can get him as your WR3.	6
28	61	Austin Collie	WR	IND	11	122	Risk due to the concussions, but he is a damn good player and manning loves him.	6
29	75	AJ Green	WR	CIN	7	120	We see him struggling a bit early on, but he has big upside once he settles in.	7
30	83	Santana Moss	WR	WAS	5	120	We like the little guy plenty and he’s a very nice WR3.	7
31	74	Steve Smith	WR	CAR	9	120	Can Cam get him going? It’s an open question, but we still see Smitty as a good WR3.	7
32	115	Plaxico Burress	WR	NYJ	8	120	We just bumped him up now that he is practicing and scoring touchdowns. He’s a good buy as a WR3 or WR4.	7
33	87	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	8	115	He’s game-ready and the Falcons are going to use him. He’s got some upside as a WR3.	7
34	173	Lee Evans	WR	BAL	5	115	Sleeper alert! Evans has been waiting for a QB like Flacco for a long long time.	7
35	116	Braylon Edwards	WR	SF	7	115	Perhaps a slow start (and could miss a game or two due to suspension), but Braylon is playing for big bucks. Greed is good that way.	8
36	82	Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	6	115	He’s the 3rd option, but he’s in a great offense.	8
37	65	Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	7	115	He’s been hurt and he’s not back yet, so he’s a wildcard with legit upside.	8
38	105	Chad Ochocinco	WR	NE	7	114	Tough to value him in the Patriots paradigm, but we think he’s useful as a WR3.	8
39	126	Jacoby Ford	WR	OAK	8	114	He’s back to practice and we may bump him up a bit since he’s still on top of the depth chart. We love this kid.	8
40	110	Hines Ward	WR	PIT	11	114	Looked good last week and he’s healthier than he was the last two years according to coaches.	8
41	114	Mike Thomas	WR	JAC	9	112	A safe bet as a WR4 and an even better option in PPR.	8
42	133	Danny Amendola	WR	STL	5	112	He’s having a great camp. He could be a PPR monster.
43	146	Lance Moore	WR	NO	11	110	Always a threat for a big game, he should be his usual self.	9
44	108	Mike Sims-Walker	WR	STL	5	105	He’s a wildcard. He has WR2 upside and a brittle floor.	9
45	92	Deion Branch	WR	NE	7	105	See Ocho. It’s tough to figure how the targeting will go in New England. Branch is slipping deep in drafts and make a great flier if he’s around late.	9
46	109	Roy Williams	WR	CHI	8	105	He’s reportedly out of shape and we like Knox to get his job back at some point.	9
47	131	Robert Meachem	WR	NO	11	105	He’s an upside guy and he may finally have a big year in 2011. Just don’t draft him as a starter.	9
48	86	Mike Williams	WR	SEA	6	100	He’s a sleeper and we like his chances if they go to Whitehurst at QB, who he has a good relationship with.	9
49	162	Arrelious Benn	WR	TB	8	100	Dezmon Briscoe could start in the near term, but we think Benn gets in there eventually. We like him as a WR4 or WR5.	10
50	81	Johnny Knox	WR	CHI	8	100	We haven’t given up on Knox at all and we think he’ll end up having a good year. Steal him as your 5th receivers and reap rewards at some point.	10
51	197	Devin Hester	WR	CHI	8	90	A nice sleeper, but we’ve said that before. A nice WR5 with upside.	10
52	155	Greg Little	WR	CLE	5	90	A very interesting guy in redrafts. If you can get him as a WR5, we really like it.	11
53	219	Eric Decker	WR	DEN	6	90	Decker has more upside than some folks seem to think. Grab him as your fifth receiver.	10
54	265	Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	8	60	He may not be starting yet, but DHB can’t hold his jock. Grab him now and he could start for you down the line.	10
55	249	Brandon LaFell	WR	CAR	9	90	LaFell is one of our guys and he makes a very nice WR5 with WR3 upside for 2011.	10
56	123	Jerome Simpson	WR	CIN	7	90	He’s got some things to overcome early on with a rookie quarterback, but he’s got WR3 upside.	10
57	111	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	8	88	A fine player but there’s a ton of target competition in Green Bay.	10
58	135	James Jones	WR	GB	8	88	He’s a WR5 and he’s got upside if injuries hit the Pack.	11
59	118	Davone Bess	WR	MIA	5	80	He’s a solid depth player in redrafts and a WR4 in PPR formats.	11
60	264	Cecil Shorts	WR	JAC	9	80	Cecil is one of our guys. The kid can play and we think he does great things once the Jaguars get things figured out.	11
61	153	Donald Driver	WR	GB	8	80	Driver, like Jordy Nelson and Jones, will have trouble performing consistently with so many good targets in Green Bay.	11
62	239	Jabar Gaffney	WR	WAS	5	70	He will have a role, but we’re calling him a WR5 for now.	11
63	234	Earl Bennett	WR	CHI	8	70	He could end up being valuable depending on how things shake out in Chicago.	11
64	231	Jason Hill	WR	JAC	9	70	We like Cecil Shorts better, so we’re not buying into Hill as much as some others. He’s a factor though. He’s got WR3 upside.	11
65	187	Nate Burleson	WR	DET	9	70	He’s flying under the radar and he can play for you if you need a guy. A WR6 with plenty of upside.	11
66	169	Derrick Mason	WR	NYJ	5	65	He can still play, but he’s the 3rd or fourth target in the Jets’ attack.	11
67	152	Steve Breaston	WR	KC	6	60	We worry about his knee, but he has a chance to produce WR4 numbers if he stays healthy.
68	262	Edmond “Clyde” Gates	WR	MIA	5	60	The Dolphins found a gem here. He’s no lock for a big role, but we think he could produce if given a chance. A better player than Brian Hartline for sure.
69	242	Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	6	60	He’s starting, but they seem to have a lot of guys who will play. he’s got potential, but he’s just a waiver wire guy right now outside of large leagues.
70	228	Louis Murphy	WR	OAK	8	50	We think he’s their #3 for the long haul. Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore are the best receivers in Oakland.
71		Dezmon Briscoe	WR	TB	8	60	He’s a sleeper if he ends up starting.
72	300	Nate Washington	WR	TEN	6	60	Not a bad deep sleeper.
73	279	Early Doucet	WR	ARI	6	70	He’s a factor but not a draft target right now.
74	NA	Donald Jones	WR	BUF	7	70	Keep an eye on him. He’s taken over for Lee Evans.
75		Brandon Gibson	WR	STL	5	50	He’s not our favorite guy in St Louis, but he’s a starter for now. He’s worth a look for the short term.
76	224	Eddie Royal	WR	DEN	6	70	He’s looking like the slot guy with a more limited role with Fox running the team.
77	266	Riley Cooper	WR	PHI	7	50	He only needs a chance and he can be a great player. Grab him late in big leagues.
78	257	Damian Williams	WR	TEN	6	50	If Britt gets hurt or suspended, then Williams becomes a bigger factor.
79	NA	Austin Pettis	WR	STL	5	40	Worth a late flier in big leagues. he could start at some point.
80	193	Jordan Shipley	WR	CIN	7	50	A very good player, but he’s got a developing QB, so don’t go crazy in redrafts.
81	194	Titus Young	WR	DET	9	50	We like Titus, but he needs to get healthy. Right now, he’s a deep sleeper in big leagues and a waiver wire add in smaller ones.
82	192	Mohamed Massaquoi	WR	CLE	5	30	Not having a good August.
83	141	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	PIT	11	55	The Steelers’ depth hurts his 2011 upside.
84	NA	Devin Aromashodu	WR	MIN	9	20	Worth a look for upside as there’s just no #2 receiver worth a damn in Minnesota.
85	112	Terrell Owens	WR	FA	7	50	He’s a month away, but he could be worth something at some point.
86	267	Kevin Walter	WR	HOU	11	65	He’s a fading commodity. He’ll have a few big games.
87	281	Brian Hartline	WR	MIA	5	30	We think Gates makes him an after thought by year’s end.
88	299	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	KC	6	70	A sleeper, but he’s been causing problems so far, so only take him for down the line.
89	304	Bernard Berrian	WR	MIN	9	60	You need to be pretty desperate.
90		Devin Thomas	WR	NYG	7		Nice upside if he can win the #3 job in NY.
91	164	Jacoby Jones	WR	HOU	11	45	He can always make a play, but he and Walter kill each other’s value.
92		Randall Cobb	WR	GB	8	10	He needs some injuries in front if him, but he’s a play-maker and he plays with Aaron Rodgers. Learn the name.
93	185	Leonard Hankerson	WR	WAS	5	40	We like him for the long term, but he’s unlikely to bust-out early on.
94	154	Danario Alexander	WR	STL	5	70	It’s sad really. This kid is a top flight talent, but he’s in for another MRI. If it’s more bad news, that will knock him out of our rankings completely. He’s down 30 spots from last week.	11
95		Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	11	30	So much depth in Pitt, but he’s been active.
96	302	Devery Henderson	WR	NO	11	45	He’s still worth drafting in big leagues, but he’s to be getting passed by Meacheam.
97	171	Steven Smith	WR	PHI	7	0	Worth a flier in really deep leagues and a nice add in keeper formats. He’ll be out for about a month.
98	NA	Ronald Johnson	WR	SF	7	55	We like him and he could be a factor if Edwards and Crabtree are out early.
99	NA	Josh Cribbs	WR	CLE	5	60	Talented, but not involved consistently enough.
100	280	Jerricho Cotchery	WR	PIT	11	50	Once he gets fully healthy, he could be a flex in PPR.