Rotobahn

Top 200 Rankings

The Player Universe is back!
By: Pete Davidson : August 04, 2012 9:46am

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Today, we bring you our first official rankings in the form of our Top 200 Player Universe.  The Top 300 is still under construction.  What we are finding as we continue to break down the 2012 talent pool is that there's a level of depth we've have not seen in prior years.  There is a ton of young talent out there, and with so many teams using committee backfields and extra receivers, there is plenty of opportunity to be spread around amongst this deep pool of talent.  Another factor is the 2011 Rookie Class, which never got an offseason until this year.  For this reason, we expect a lot of level-jumping among second year players, whom some have written off prematurely.  But worry not ... Rotobahn is all over it.

For those who are new to the site, the Player Universe is very searchable.  Just start typing in a name or an attribute such as "risk", "ADP" or "handcuff" and you'll see certain players float to the top.  If you want our take on a specific player, just start typing that player's name.  The player rankings are broken down by overall ranking and by position.

We'll be back with the Top 300 soon.  We'll also be releasing our Rookie Report for the receivers this week, plus some advice on mock drafting and a look at current ADP.  So check back!  And, we've now added a Twitter feed, so sign up and you'll get even more timely information. And, if you register for free, you can start posting in our forums. I try to answer all questions the day they come in with few exceptions.

 

Rank	Pos Rank	PLAYER	POS	TEAM	BYE	THE SKINNY
1	1	Ray Rice	RB	BAL	8	The contract could become an issue, but unless he is missing camp time, we are keeping him up with the elite. You can make a strong argument for Rice at the top of any draft. He’s the player we feel most comfortable with if we’re drafting up top, but taking Foster or McCoy makes just as much sense. Taking Johnson is also a very defendable move.
2	2	LeSean McCoy	RB	PHI	7	He outperformed the mid-first round ranking that we gave him last year--as crazy as that sounds. We have some questions about his long-term health, but right now, he may be the top back for fantasy purposes. He earned his way up here.
3	3	Arian Foster	RB	HOU	8	He takes a lot of hits and he’s been hurt in each of the last two years. Add in a very talented backup and you have some cause for concern. That said, Foster has played like a stud and should be drafted as such. Just don’t make the mistake of rostering this guy without also rostering Ben Tate. Go a round or two early and make sure you get him.
4	4	Chris Johnson	RB	TEN	11	We are still huge fans of Mr. Johnson. The speed and explosiveness are still there, and we like the direction of the Titans’ offense. CJ is right up there with anybody in terms of value ... and he’s never had a major injury. Last year was bad, but he still had some good games in the season’s second half. There’s some risk due to the fall off and very questionable effort, but we see a bounce-back season. He’s an every-down tailback with high-end talent. That alone puts him near the top of the heap. Quite honestly, if we were thoroughly convinced that he would give max effort on every play for 16 games, he’d be at the top of our board.
5	1	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	5	He’s been our top ranked receiver since we opened our doors. The only thing that’s changed is the gap between Megatron and the field. This guy is all alone up top. He is arguably the top player in all of fantasy football, but this is a tough year to go receiver in round one so it’s not a simple decision.
6	5	Ryan Mathews	RB	SD	7	Meet Mr. Upside for 2012. If Matthews stays healthy, we have a potential monster here. And, really, that’s the only question. If he plays 16 games, we think he’s a top-three back. We project him to play 14, so we’ve bumped him back a bit.
7	1	Jimmy Graham	TE	NO	6	We’ve been pimping this guy since the day he arrived and we are going all-in once again. We see him as a lock for ten scores and over 1K through the air ... and in PPR, his 90+ catches won’t hurt you. And, really his upside far exceeds the numbers I’m tossing about here as we all saw in 2011. I’ve never ranked a tight end in round one. Heck, I’ve only once put a TE in round two and that was years ago. This year, we currently have two tight ends in round one. We don’t like it, but we just can’t find anybody who trumps these guys statistically.
8	2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	9	He’s in a dead heat with Graham and if you want to roll with Gronk instead of the big dude from The Big Easy, we are not about to argue with you. When other sites told you to look out for a regression last year, we doubled-down on Gronk. With Brady still a top flight QB, Gronk is a near lock if he stays healthy.
9	2	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	10	He’s behind the tight ends because he has a below-average QB to work with. He’s a first rounder because he is as consistent a player as there is in existence. But again, his QBs, regardless of who starts, just don’t compare with Stafford, Brady and Brees. For this, Fitz is the 4th non-running back on our board. This dude is a year or two away from Canton.
10	1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	10	He has all the weapons and he is fully immersed in the offense. Fantasy bets don’t get much better. He’s our top QB.
11	2	Drew Brees	QB	NO	6	Brees is the kind of player who steps up, so we are not terribly worried as far as how he’ll perform in The Big Easy after the Commish’s harsh rulings. He still has tremendous weaponry around him and he’s still in his prime, though the window is starting to close.
12	6	Demarco Murray	RB	DAL	5	He’s the man unless they lose their minds in Big D. Felix Jones is solid insurance for the Cowboys and for you, but we like Murray to put up RB1 numbers in his second year. The key is staying healthy. The guy can tote the rock without question and we expect growth is his 2nd season as far as receiving goes, but what makes Murray special is what he can do as a ball carrier. He keeps his feet very well after contact and uses the stiff arm about as well as anybody in the league. He’s legit. The big key if you take him is to handcuff him with Jones. It’s worth taking Fekix a round early just to make sure. Jones‘ ADP is currently 126 or about the 11th round.
13	3	Tom Brady	QB	NE	9	Age is slowly creeping up on Brady, but we still expect elite fantasy stats in 2012. He’s going to be well protected, and he has perhaps his best-ever stable of receivers to work with when you factor in his two beastly tight ends. The playoffs may or may not continue to vex Brady and Belichick, but wake us up when they stop dominating the regular season.
14	7	Trent Richardson	RB	CLE	10	Yes, this is high for a rookie. Yes, I feel a little queasy doing it. But the thing is, we like the way the Browns block and we love what they might do with a monster like Richardson back there. He has a chance to be a classic bell-cow back. He’s worth a shot after round one and maybe even DURING round one--if you can stomach the risk. He’s a big man with a low center of gravity and he can really run. He takes on tacklers well. We’re not really buying him as the next AP, but he’s going to be good if he can stay healthy. The bottom line is, how many backs have the whole job? This guy does and it’s about production.
15	3	AJ Green	WR	CIN	8	He’s healthy and that is all we need to know. This guy is a monster. A future first rounder if Andy Dalton continues to develop. Green is a player without a weakness. The guy is simply awesome. In our view, he is the next great receiver.
16	4	Greg Jennings	WR	GB	10	Jennings should see more single coverage in 2012 than he has in years. We see him him as a somewhat safe WR1 and a solid way to spend a 2nd round pick. He’s serious talent in a very stable offense with an elite QB. That’s a lot of up-pointing arrows.
17	5	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	10	Nelson was tremendous in 2011, and we see another great season for him in 2012. He may see a drop in big plays, but he is a legit WR1 in our view. You don’t need to take him this high to get him based on his current ADP (39), so you could look for him in round three or even early in round four if you want to push the envelope. Still, we value him this high for many of the reasons we have Jennings so high. Great offense and an elite QB. Nelson works against a lot of 2nd corners and the Rodgers/Nelson combo is going to win that battle.
18	8	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	11	Getting a shot at AP in round two is pretty tempting. He is a player who could move a lot in either direction based on what we see and hear in August. So far, all reports have been positive and some have been glowing. We expect that he’ll share time with Toby Gerhart early on, but he’ll be the man again before long.
19	4	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	5	He was awesome in 2011, and perhaps bigger than anything was the fact that he stayed on the field for 16 games. Stafford is primed for a repeat performance and he is a nice value in the 3rd round if you can get him there. His health risk is still a factor in our view or we’d rank him even higher. He’s got a huge arm and an amazing cast of weapons. It’s hard to see him being derailed by anything other than injury.
20	6	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	7	Risk, meet Reward. This guy is a highlight waiting to happen, but he’s also a muscle pull of the same disposition. If you tend to build teams with quality depth, then this is a player we highly recommend, but you must be prepared to play without him. He plays with reckless abandon and that leads to missed games. To us, he is worth the risk, so we have him ranked above his ADP of 25.
21	9	Darren McFadden	RB	OAK	5	We see how highly he is ranked at other outlets and we grasp the urge to do that. The thing is, this is a player who has simply never stayed healthy. Not once. Now we have yet another body part to worry about. While we do agree that he is a top five back when healthy, we just have no choice but to assume he will miss three games at minimum. That makes him a fringe RB1 along with other health risks like AP and Jamaal Charles.
22	10	Maurice Jones-Drew	RB	JAC	6	The mileage ... the mileage is an issue. That said, let us know when he has his first bad year. I don’t know if any player in fantasy football history has outperformed his ADP more often than MJD. He still has elite value, but you must also get Rashad Jennings, whom we view as the best handcuff option for Jones-Drew. Now that his holdout is getting ugly, we have adjusted. He’s in a new system, so we don’t like his chances of doing well out of the box should he show up right before the season. We don’t blame MJD for holding out, but we recommend that you don’t make it your problem. We’re not targeting him at this point.
23	7	Brandon Marshall	WR	CHI	6	Yes, he is chock-full of possible problems, but he’s back with Cutler and that has got to make him better than he’s been the last few years, if not as good as both were under Mike Shanahan. Marshall is a player we see posting solid WR1 numbers, but his risk is very real. He’s still packing the same brain after all. If he was a more solid citizen, he’d be at the edge of round one.
24	8	Andre Johnson	WR	HOU	8	Monster upside, but he misses games. The one very encouraging thing is that he played well in the postseason. Now we have to judge what impact, if any, his offseason knee scope will have on his health heading into camp.
25	9	Roddy White	WR	ATL	7	After Fitz, this guy may be the most consistent receiver going. he may lose a bit of upside with Julio Jones emerging as a superstar talent, but Julio will also prevent teams from paying special attention to White, so the door swings both ways. We still expect WR1 output or close to it.
26	5	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	6	Cam exceeded even our high expectations as a rookie in 2011. This year, we expect him to remain among the elite for fantasy purposes. The key for him will be the offense as a whole. We expect fewer carries near the goal as they allow their deep stable of backs to assume more of the pounding. That said, if the offense takes off, that will still leave plenty of chances for Newton, whom we still suspect will score about ten times. If he makes incremental improvements in his game as a passer, that will make up for a few lost running scores.
27	10	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	11	We have liked Cruz for years, but even we were shocked at what this guy did last season. As I noted in one of our early ‘Waiver Wires” in 2011 ... “the guy makes plays.” Obviously, he continued to do so all the way until the NFL’s final game. We see no reason why anything will change. Cruz is here to stay. He has an excellent rapport with Manning. He’s healthy, his role is assured and he’s got a fine QB to work with. He may not have much upside when you take him this high, but he’s a pretty secure asset.
28	6	Michael Vick	QB	PHI	7	Vick may be the trickiest QB to value. Per start, we still think he is the best for fantasy. But he misses games and that kills when your team is built around him. This is why we advised against him as a high pick in 2011. If you do go with Vick, then it is mandatory that you back him up with a quality option such as RGIII or Matt Schaub. Don’t forget, Vick had no offseason last year. He’s now fully immersed in Reid’s offense. If healthy, he could be a monster again. His current ADP is 36 and that is a steal.
29	11	Doug Martin	RB	TB	5	Here’s a player we absolutely love. He was a mid-first rounder on our boards and, in our view, Tampa stole him late in rd one. We project him to be the lead back though he may lose some carries to LeGarrette Blount. Rotobahn thinks Martin has a great chance to finish 2012 as an RB1. He is a 3-down tailback with great hands and insanely quick feet. He’s also fast with the ability to make yards after contact. Martin is a potential round one fixture in future fantasy drafts and we would not be shocked if he posted first round numbers as a rookie. We actually like him better than Richardson, but T-Rich has a few studs to run behind, so he gets the nod for now.
30	12	Steven Jackson	RB	STL	9	Jackson will have a chance to shine in 2012, but the injury risk couldn’t be more obvious. It’s all about where you can get him. We like him starting in round three. One positive is that you now have the chance to draft a legit handcuff option as we like both of their rookie tailbacks, especially Isaiah Pead, who is NFL starting caliber.
31	11	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	5	Bryant battled lower leg issues most of last year but still managed to post solid overall numbers. If he can gain a little bit in terms of consistency, which we expect, he is in for his best year yet. We see WR1 output though recent off field issues underscore his volatility. We’re still buyers. You can’t teach the skills that this guy has.
32	13	Matt Forte	RB	CHI	6	We are very concerned about Forte. Bush is a serious threat based on what we’ve seen, so we are treating him as having only a slight edge in what we see as a committee backfield. Forte is not a special talent in our view. He needs the volume to be a RB1 and we’re not as sure of the volume as we were in 2011.
33	14	Marshawn Lynch	RB	SEA	11	Well, punk, do you feel lucky? We are not telling people to avoid Beast-mode, but we can’t, in good conscience, rank him with the elite. He’s just been too inconsistent as a pro. Still, he has looked very good as a Seahawk. Now, we have yet another brush with the law to worry about. There are other capable backs on the Seattle roster, so the risk is considerable. Lynch is a player to watch very closely in the coming weeks. We need to gauge the team’s reaction and the potential suspension that is now looming. Do you feel lucky?
34	15	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	7	We love Charles, but we have a player coming off of an ACL and he may have lost a lot of the goal line carries to Peyton Hillis. JC’s current ADP (17) is too rich for our blood. We like him in round three a lot better.
35	12	Wes Welker	WR	NE	9	Welker is an interesting case. We’re not terribly worried about the contract regardless of how that progresses. Brady will always look for Welker, but Brady, despite his Wes jones, has other very hungry mouths to feed with Gronkowski, Hernandez and now Brandon Lloyd. The days of Welker catching 110 balls may be over.
36	16	Darren Sproles	RB	NO	6	He’s a solid RB2, but you always have to worry about how the rotation will evolve in The Big Easy. Don’t go too high on Sproles.
37	13	Mike Wallace	WR	PIT	4	He did scare us a bit with a shaky 2nd half, but we like what they have done with the roster in Pitt, and Wallace will benefit. He’s a very solid WR1 in our view if he gets into camp. If and when that happens, he will make a move up our board. For now, he sits down with the WR2s and he’ll go lower if this stretches on much longer.
38	14	Hakeem Nicks	WR	NYG	11	We thought he was a health risk before his latest foot problem. Nicks is a first round fantasy talent, but we like him towards the end of round three. He’s worth the health risk at that point. Things could obviously change with Hakeem as we move through August and get more information. We’ll be all over this one.
39	15	Percy Harvin	WR	MIN	11	He tore it up once Ponder was established, and though you always worry about migraines, we love Harvin’s potential now that he is clearly the man in the Minny air attack. He’s got upside in round three and he’ll go later in some drafts.
40	16	Steve Smith	WR	CAR	6	He’s still a big talent and based on what we saw in 2011, he’ll be a solid WR2 or better if healthy in 2012. Newton opens up all the routes for him, but don’t go too crazy as 33-year old receivers do have a tendency to flame out. We like him starting in round four.
41	17	Miles Austin	WR	DAL	5	Given full health, we expect a very solid season from Austin, who will see more targets with Laurent Robinson out of town. He’s a fringe WR1 like a lot of other receivers in this area of the draft.
42	17	Michael Turner	RB	ATL	7	He’s declining, but he is in a good situation and his team has a favorable schedule versus the run. We see Turner being a viable guy for at least one more year, but change is coming.
43	18	Frank Gore	RB	SF	9	Gore has a ton of competition for snaps, but not one of the other backs can hold his jock overall. Frank is still the man--just don’t expect huge carry totals. We like him as a strong RB2 for fantasy purposes.
44	18	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	7	Thomas has double-risk for injury as his value is tied to Manning’s health as well as his own. That said, the upside here is pretty ridiculous. Even if you assume a backup QB, Thomas did well enough with Tebow to retain some value in the event of a calamity at Payton Place. This guy is tough to handle.
45	19	Jeremy Maclin	WR	PHI	7	Maclin may represent a value this year as his 2011 campaign was slowed from the beginning with his odd illness and subsequent weight loss. He makes for a very solid WR2 in fantasy. We like him any time after round three.
46	20	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	5	It’s always hard when you pour a player into a new container, and this is the trick with evaluating V-Jax for 2012. Rivers to Freeman. Norv to Mike Sullivan. One good thing is that he stays in warm weather and on natural grass. We like Jakson, but he is not the secure asset he was in SD. We see him as a strong WR2.
47	21	Eric Decker	WR	DEN	7	If you’ve been reading Rotobahn since the early days, then you know all about Mr. Decker. It will come as no shock when we say that the arrival of Manning only adds fuel to the fire. Decker will be a breakout barring injury to himself or his QB.
48	3	Vernon Davis	TE	SF	9	We’ve always told folks not to avoid VD, but this year, we feel better about the big man than ever. Not only was he playing super-human football in the playoffs, but he now plays in one of the more stable environments in the entire league. We’re buyers--even with Alex Smith potentially starting.
49	22	Dwayne Bowe	WR	KC	7	He has QB issues for sure, but all his production has come with the same limitations. Bowe is a very solid option as a WR2 with some upside, but he needs to get into camp. Right now, we’re not targeting him.
50	23	DeSean Jackson	WR	PHI	7	Tons of upside, but his injury potential and attitude keep him down in round four. We like him plenty as a WR2 option.
51	24	Marques Colston	WR	NO	6	Mileage is a concern, but he retains much of his value by staying with Brees and the Saints. We see him as a solid WR2. He’s still a great red zone target and Jimmy Graham helps him see softer coverage than he did in his prime.
52	25	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	10	He’s a volatile player, but how do you not get excited about what he might do moving away from Curtis Painter and landing with a potential Michelangelo? Garcon’s upside is scary in this offense. In our opinion, Griffin is a better fit for this guy than Manning was. We’re buyers.
53	7	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	7	Sleeper alert. Yeah, he’ll miss Vincent Jackson, but he still has a solid stable to work with and a very nasty back to catch his dump-offs. Add in the Robert Meachem signing and Rivers should be up to his old tricks, making him one of the better values to be had in most drafts.
54	8	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	5	Romo is a solid option due to his fantastic surrounding talent. He is healthy going into 2012 and we like him if you miss out on the top six. He’s a solid option any time after round four.
55	19	Fred Jackson	RB	BUF	8	Here’s a very tricky player. What do we focus on, the breakout, the injury or CJ Spiller’s emergence? Oh, I left out that Fred is on the wrong side of 30. So, we project Jackson to be healthy and to start for the Bills week one. We also suspect that he will end up in a platoon with Spiller, who flashed a lot of his ability in 2011’s second half. For fantasy purposes, we see him as a light RB2 who is likely to be worth more early than late in the season. If you take Jackson anywhere near his current ADP (30), then you had better make a strong play for Spiller (ADP of 79) in the draft’s middle rounds.
56	4	Antonio Gates	TE	SD	7	Only the risk of injury keeps him out of the top fifty.
57	5	Jermichael Finley	TE	GB	10	He’s got huge upside this late and he is playing for a big contract. We’re buying Finley in 2012, but the price has got to be right. We’re feeling him in round five at this point.
58	6	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	5	He’ll keep chugging along at about the same pace. Good solid fantasy starter who doesn’t miss time very often.
59	7	Aaron Hernandez	TE	NE	9	Hernandez is one of the most versatile players in the game. He lines up just about everywhere imaginable and makes plays as a receiver, runner and blocker. He’s one of NE’s key chess pieces. If you could promise health, we would bump him up considerably, but he has been injury prone so far as a pro. We would like to see a 16-game season before we make him an elite player for fantasy.
60	26	Steve Johnson	WR	BUF	8	This guy has talent and he can be a WR2 for you, but he did have groin surgery, so keep an eye on him in preseason. We’re neither down on SJ or high on him. He is what he is--solid.
61	27	Brandon Lloyd	WR	NE	9	We like Lloyd’s chances of success in NE a lot more than we liked Ocho Cinco’s, but he is #3 in the pecking order at best based on how we see things shaking out in New England. His value to Brady may be greater than his fantasy value for you. We’re calling him a WR3.
62	28	Torrey Smith	WR	BAL	8	There’s some risk with a short track record, but as we said in 2011, we like this guy. He’s fast as all get-out and he fights for the football. He’s the receiver to own in Baltimore at this point.
63	29	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	4	He came up big in 2011 and we expect solid WR3 to WR2 production from him in 2012.
64	30	Denarius Moore	WR	OAK	5	He got hurt in his rookie campaign, but he also wowed us when healthy. He’s in the midst of his first true NFL offseason and he is a very high upside player that you can get as your third or fourth fantasy receiver. Carson Palmer looked for him often when both were on the field towards the end of 2011. Moore has WR2 upside this year.
65	20	Willis McGahee	RB	DEN	7	They drafted a quality rookie, but HC John Fox has a long track record of playing veteran tailbacks over younger players and Peyton Manning’s arrival would seem to make that philosophy even more logical. We expect McGahee to be the main man for as long as his body holds up. As of now, we project Ronnie Hillman to be the best player to draft as a handcuff. And with Willis’ injury history, that is a move worth making.
66	21	Ahmad Bradshaw	RB	NYG	11	We are big fans of rookie David Wilson and 2nd year man Da’Rel Scott, so Bradshaw, given his history of injury is a player we see as being risky. We’ll have to see how things shake out in camp.
67	9	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	11	Eli has proven to be much like his brother in that he uses rookie players if they have game. We expect good things from this year’s crop and when you add that to Nicks and Cruz, we think Eli will be just fine in 2012.
68	22	Chris Wells	RB	ARI	10	Beanie is an injury risk plain and simple. He has great upside when healthy, but the injuries and renewed competition from Ryan Williams has us justifiably concerned. He’s a top ten back when he is right, but how often he’ll be “right” is anybody’s guess. We like him if he sneaks into the 6th round in 12-team, formats.
69	23	Stevan Ridley	RB	NE	9	If there’s going to be a breakout back in New England, we’d wager that Ridley is the guy, but the NE backfield still carries the stench of RBBC and we are approaching them that way until further notice.
70	24	CJ Spiller	RB	BUF	8	CJ is a feature in our latest Game Cap which is on our homepage. We like him as a flex option with RB1 upside if he takes over or, more likely, if Fred Jackson gets hurt again. Spiller has come a long way since his rookie year and he’s finally getting a full offseason as a pro. He’s a nice value at his current ADP (79.) Take him as your flex and hope for a lot better.
71	25	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	6	He is a nice fit for Cam Newton as he can thrive as a runner or as a receiver. He seems to be past his health issues, so he has potential break-out ability. The obvious issue is DeAngelo Williams, who is not going to disappear. We see both backs as weak RB2s or solid flex options.
72	26	DeAngelo Williams	RB	CAR	6	The guy is an NFL starter, but he is not as good a fit for what they are doing in Carolina as teammate Jonathan Stewart. They are likely to share touches and have similar value, but we see Stewart as the guy to own if choosing between the two.
73	27	Reggie Bush	RB	MIA	7	Bush surprised a lot of people last year, but not Rotobahn. This year will be dicier with a new coaching staff and better competition in the form of rookie Lamar Miller. We’ll be bird-dogging the Miami backfield for the next month. He’s got RB2 upside, but he needs to get the touches he got in 2011.
74	28	Shonn Greene	RB	NYJ	9	Yes, the Jets are going back to the ground and that could help Greene. The problem is that he has only medium separation from the other backs on the roster as far as talent goes. If Greene is still the starter as we near the opener, we’ll bump him up a bit, but right now, we can’t recommend any Jet backs very heavily. This situation reeks of a committee.
75	29	Roy Helu	RB	WAS	10	Helu could move down if they go back to toying with him by playing Hightower. Helu is young and healthy and looks like a very nice fantasy asset if he is the long term backfield partner to RGIII. For now, we project him as the head back in a committee and a very nice RB2 for fantasy. The thing we really like is that he has top ten fantasy potential right away.
76	31	Robert Meachem	WR	SD	7	Meachem is, for sure, one of the more interesting players in 2012 fantasy drafts. He may finally be given the role as a #1 receiver and he takes only a slight hit as far as QB quality goes.
77	10	Peyton Manning	QB	DEN	7	He’s a risk/reward pick for sure and he he could slide up or down based on preseason action. We love the talent he has to work with in Denver. He has huge receivers and a nice young stable of tight ends. We expect Denver to protect Manning and run a lot of 2TE sets. Peyton will have more size to throw to than at any point in his career. He’ll also have a better running game than he’s had since the Edge was at his peak. If he is healthy enough for 16 starts, we see 30 scores.
78	11	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	7	We see Ryan as a very safe play if you get him late. He can start for you if the rest of your team is up to snuff. His weaponry is that outstanding and he’s a smart enough QB to spread it around.
79	32	Michael Crabtree	WR	SF	9	Here’s a volatile player whom we happen to like. He was coming on a bit last year if you watch the film, but he was overshadowed by Vernon Davis. Crabtree is healthy coming into the season and when you factor in a full offseason with Harbaugh’s system, I think we have a potential career year for this player.
80	30	James Starks	RB	GB	10	As long as he is starting, he is a worthy selection in the middle rounds, but as we’ve said before, we think a healthy Alex Green is the best back in Green Bay. Of course, Green is still recovering from ACL surgery, so this will be interesting and we expect Starks to retain the gig at least to start the year. He’s a good flex option as long as he starts.
81	31	Ben Tate	RB	HOU	8	Tate is a player you had better own if you draft Arian Foster, because if you wait too long, another team will snatch him up. This is a very talented RB and he’s a solid flex even when Foster is healthy.
82	32	Donald Brown	RB	IND	4	If he keeps the job throughout the preseason, he’ll move up a peg or two. Brown came up with the goods last year, so he’s a player to watch in August as Indy unveils their new offense.
83	8	Brandon Pettigrew	TE	DET	5	The big man is a solid way to fill your tight end spot if you miss out on the bigger names. He still has room to improve and the talent to do it.
84	33	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	RB	CIN	8	We have always been big fans of the Law Firm, but he is now a fish out of water playing in a more typical offense. He has serious bust potential at his current ADP of 54. He’s a RB3 to us and not one we are targeting.
85	33	Sidney Rice	WR	SEA	11	He’s a floater. He’s burned a lot of drafters the last few years and it shows in his ADP (83.) He is a potential steal as a 4th receiver. We like him plenty if you can get him that late. They have nice depth at QB in Seattle, so we expect things to get better for Sidney in 2012.
86	12	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	4	Big Ben is a really good value at his current ADP (94), so look for him before round nine and you’ll have a very nice starter on the cheap. They will throw it a ton in Pitt this year.
87	34	Reggie Wayne	WR	IND	4	How ironic is it that Wayne is the Colt who stayed? That being said, Andrew Luck should be happy as Wayne is a dependable route runner. And, though he is not all he once was, he still has a few years left based on what we saw in 2011. Luck should be good enough as a rookie to make Wayne a viable WR3 for fantasy owners.
88	13	Robert Griffin	QB	WAS	10	We love his game and we expect that they will unleash him in DC. There is always a risk with rookie QBs as we said last August with Cam Newton. Nevertheless, this player has that same foot-point ability that we crave for fantasy purposes. He’s a nice guy to target as a late way to fill your QB spot. Just make sure you back him up with a quality player like Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler.
89	34	Alex Green	RB	GB	10	In our minds, it’s all about his ACL. If he is at or near 100%, then he is the best back in Green Bay and it isn’t close. And, remember, we sounded the bell of James Starks before any outlet on the planet. Just search “meet james starks” here or at google to see. And, as much as we thought Starks was the guy to own back then, we like Green better. Just check out our “Meet Alex Green” article from last year, which was written before he injured the ACL. Green is the guy they want to play. It’s obvious. It is a question of when and health. Now, as far as drafting Green goes, you can get him very late in some drafts. It’s up to you to decide where to make the move. We’re going after him in round 11 or 12 and that is very early based on his current ADP of 195. In a good league, he’ll be long gone by then. Even if you don’t have the stomach to go after a speculative talent such as Green, take our advice and avoid Starks at his current ADP of 70. He’ a bad buy there. He has a weak floor.
90	35	Greg Little	WR	CLE	10	Little got better as his rookie year wore on. He’s a guy we like a lot in 2012 as a WR3 with significant upside. He’s a guy to watch in camp. If preseason reviews are positive, there’s a good chance that he’ll be one of our recommended tergets, based on his current ADP of 110, which equates to the 9th round in 12-team leagues. He’s big and athletic as we said last year and now he is back in the flow after sitting out his final season in college (2010.) He’s a strong candidate to level-jump in 2012.
91	35	Isaac Redman	RB	PIT	4	Redman is tough to value. We’re not big fans of his skills and we are fans of Jon Dwyer’s. Then factor in the return of Mendenhall and it is hard not to project Redman losing his job at some point or at least his value. His ADP of 50 is way too rich for us.
92	9	Fred Davis	TE	WAS	10	One of our favorite sleepers in 2011 (we all but begged you to draft him) is a solid TE1 going into 2012. Davis should only get better with RGIII at the helm in our nation's capital. He’s a mismatch player and they know how to use him in DC. He’s already served his substance related suspension, so he’s good to go for 2012. Davis is a nice way to get value at TE without using a top pick.
93	36	Santonio Holmes	WR	NYJ	9	He’s a very talented player, but he has a shaky relationship with his shaky QB and that has to be factored in. And, don’t forget the potential switch to Tim Tebow, which would only hurt Holmes’ value further. He’s an o.k. WR3 for now.
94	37	Titus Young	WR	DET	5	Here’s a player that we are into. Young showed us a lot of what we wanted to see last year. He uses his quickness to beat the jam and he makes tough catches. He’s got the eye of Matt Stafford and we expect that relationship to get stronger in 2012. Young is obviously helped immensely by the field-tilting presence of Calvin Johnson, and Megtron will be doing that for some time. We view Titus as a solid WR3 with some real upside. Of course, he’s no steal at his current ADP of 86.
95	36	Peyton Hillis	RB	KC	7	Hillis is a player to watch and we may be moving him up. The Chiefs’ recent comments indicate a big role for Hillis behind starter Jamaal Charles. Hillis could be a viable flex even with a healthy JC.
96	37	Michael Bush	RB	CHI	6	Bush has game and we saw plenty of that in 2011. He will challenge Matt Forte and is a mandatory handcuff if you spend an early pick on the Bears’ starter, which we are not recommending.
97	38	Malcom Floyd	WR	SD	7	He’s a sleeper as he has the offense down and he could emerge as Rivers’ number one receiver. A lot of this will have to do with how Robert Meachem acclimates to San Diego. We like Floyd plenty as a WR4.
98	10	Jared Cook	TE	TEN	11	Cook has massive upside and we think he is a steal at his current ADP of 146. We expect that number to rise, but we still expect Cook to be a player we’ll be targeting in late August and early September.
99	38	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	6	We’ll have to see how preseason shakes out, but right now, this is a talented player who may not see the ball enough. He’s probably the best guy to handcuff Sproles with at this point.
100	39	David Wilson	RB	NYG	11	This is a player who could explode. Even if he’s a role player coming out of camp, Wilson is a guy whose role could expand with injuries to both receivers and running backs. If either Nicks or Bradshaw gets injured, the Giants will increase Wilson’s role. This kid has a world of all-around ability. His greatest asset is his speed, but he’s not just a track star. I was very impressed with his balance and his instincts as a runner. He also has good pad level for a speed back and keeps his feet moving through contact. We think he found a perfect team for his skill-set. We’re buying him in long term formats for sure. His primary value in redraft leagues is as a handcuff to Bradshaw, but as the season wears on, we expect him to develop flex value. If he gets the job either by merit or another Bradshaw injury, he has RB1 upside. He should be rostered in all formats. He should be off the board very early in dynasty.
101	14	Matt Schaub	QB	HOU	8	It’s all about his health. Matt Schaub can play and he has a host of great weapons. We love some of Houston’s lesser known players like rookies Keshawn Martin and Devier Posey, and they also have Lestar Jean. All these guys have NFL ability. We love Martin for the long term. Throw in the older guys like Andre2000 and Owen Daniels and you have a ton of places to put the ball. Schaub also has a righteous ground game to lean on a to loosen secondaries. If he is looking good in preseason, the Texans’ QB is one of the better values in 2012.
102	15	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	6	Cutler is an interesting player. He loses Mike Martz, but Martz’s system was a bad fit for the Bears’ personnel anyway. The real question is, will the new Mike Tice-led (Tice is the new OC)offense give the passing game enough oxygen? The Bears have had almost unheard of protection issues the last few years, so keeping Cutler safe will be a serious priority. We see Tice as a step towards conservatism, but they also added Brandon Marshall and drafted Ashlon Jeffery. This gives Cutler a lot more firepower to work with. Will he have the time? We see Cutler succeeding, but things could be a bit uneven, especially in the early going. He’s a high-end QB2 for drafting purposes and he has QB1 upside for sure.
103	39	Brandon LaFell	WR	CAR	6	At this point, you can get him as late as round ten, but we like him enough to rank him here. He should start and we liked what we saw from him in limited action last season. He is a nice upside pick as a 3rd or 4th fantasy receiver.
104	40	Lance Moore	WR	NO	6	The departure of Meachem would seemingly solidify Moore’s role as the “glue” receiver. Moore has Brees’ trust and that means a lot. We like him as a flex option in 12-team leagues.
105	40	Toby Gerhart	RB	MIN	11	Gerhart has shown the ability to post stats in AP’s absence, and his role looks to be big early-on as Peterson works his way into form. So, TG is a mandatory handcuff for AP and he’s got some early value on his own. If you are an AP owner, you need to take him by round eight or you’ll lose him.
106	41	Rashad Jennings	RB	JAC	6	Jennings is the handcuff to MJD, but right now, with MJD’s holdout, Jennings is the starter, so he’s been bumped up considerably. We’ll obviously be monitoring the Jags’ backfield all preseason long. If RJ gets a chance, we expect him to be a solid back, but nothing special.
107	16	Carson Palmer	QB	OAK	5	We like Palmer more for fantasy than for real life. He’s got some phenomenal speed to work with on the outside and when he dumps off, he has a trio of tailbacks that can do great things with the rock. If Palmer just plays just ok, he will be a solid fantasy asset. And ok is about what we’ve come to expect from Carson.
108	41	Randy Moss	WR	SF	9	He’s baaaaaack. And from what we’re hearing, he still has some game. So we’re left to wonder what it was that sapped Randy’s mojo back in 2010. Now, as amazing a fantasy asset as Moss has been historically, he’s never had to play with a popgun armed guy like Smith, so be careful and don’t pass up a solid starter for this guy. Still, he’s a guy that can do amazing things, so at some point, if you have a nice team together, he becomes an intriguing option. We’ll be watching him closely this preseason. If Harbaugh starts him, we’ll start to believe a bit.
109	42	Brian Quick	WR	STL	9	A lot is made of the fact that he played at a smaller school, but he grades out extremely well on film. He’s a big guy who can make a lot of yards after the catch. He has good enough hands and will fight for the ball. He has the look of a very good red zone option, which is always good for fantasy. Quick is on track to start right out of the gate and that makes him one of our favorite rookie receivers for redraft purposes. The Rams are exceedingly high on him and he will be given every chance to play the lead role in their passing attack.
110	43	Kenny Britt	WR	TEN	11	Britt is a monster when healthy, but he has much to prove after last year’s devastating knee injury. He also had a 2nd surgery a few months back. Then tack on his most recent arrest and you have an extremely risky player. Do not draft Britt unless you can afford to lose him. He has top five ability, so at some point, he’s worth a shot. Right now, we are staying away, but a big preseason could change our minds. Still, no matter what, he is a colossal idiot and should be viewed as such.
111	44	Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	11	Kendall Wright is a good prospect and they seem to like him in Tennessee. Wright’s best attributes are his quickness and his hands. He should have a solid career. He’ll probably be overvalued due to his high profile playing with RGIII.
112	42	Ryan Williams	RB	ARI	10	We need to get a look at him before we move him any higher. He is coming off of patella and meniscus repairs, so seeing is believing. Williams, when you consider how easily banged up Beanie Wells can get, could end up being very good for fantasy owners. But, for that to happen, he needs to be the same guy he was pre-injury. Wait and see.
113	45	Anquan Boldin	WR	BAL	8	Boldin has lost a step and is clearly on the decline. The years of tough play and hard hits have taken their toll. The Ravens have younger players who will begin to force him off the field at some point. We’re not drafting him in 2012 as anything but a reserve.
114	46	Justin Blackmon	WR	JAC	6	He’s no choir boy, but he sure has talent. The kid has size, speed and mad ball skills. If Blaine Gabbert can raise his game at all, then Blackmon could have a strong rookie year. We see him as a WR4 with WR2 upside, but we’d make him an bigger priority in long term formats. It doesn’t help any that he’s had a recent DUI and that it has created a wedge in contract talks. He’s officially holding out and that can’t help his redraft value. We like Gabbert a lot more than the rest of the planet seems to, so we don’t knock Blackmon down based on his QB. It’s the holdout that really concerns us. If he is unsigned when you draft, unless it is a long term league, we recommend staying away. There’s plenty of safer talent out there.
115	47	Santana Moss	WR	WAS	10	When last we saw him, Moss was still getting done. Don’t count the old man out just yet. Moss has produced with dreck at quarterback for a long time, so he could have one last hurrah with RGIII. We think he’s a WR3 is he starts. We’ll see.
116	11	Jermaine Gresham	TE	CIN	8	Gresham, in our view, is very underrated. Teams are going to have a terrible time dealing with him due to AJ Green’s ability to tilt the field and draw safety help. This is a potential break-out player. He can start for you in any league format/size and you can get him late with an ADP of 125.
117	17	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	8	Flacco is underrated and he has a chance to take a step forward this year as Baltimore has added some very solid receiving talent the few seasons. It’s really on Flacco now. We expect fringe QB1 numbers in 2012, which makes his ADP of 147 a real value.
118	48	Jacoby Ford	WR	OAK	5	We expect all three of the Raiders primary receivers to get enough snaps to produce. The question for Ford is about health. In short spurts, this is a very productive player. Can he string a season together? He’s got WR2 upside if he does. We like him as your fourth or fifth receiver.
119	49	Darrius Heyward-Bey	WR	OAK	5	Bey is a very interesting case. He’s definitely gotten better an he’s been given a big role with the departures of Lou Murphy and Chaz Schilens. He’s a WR5 right now and he’s got a little upside. He’s also got some risk in a new system.
120	50	Mike Williams	WR	TB	5	He’s an interesting player. We like him as a WR4 with some upside. He’s a number two with Vincent Jackson on board and that means softer coverage for Williams.
121	51	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	KC	7	Baldwin is a guy we really like as we said many times in 2011. Now he has his opening with Bowe holding out. He’s a guy we like right around the tenth round if you can get him there. He’s got a ton of upside even if Bowe comes back and plays well. He’s a touchdown guy with great size and very solid hands.
122	43	Kevin Smith	RB	DET	5	He has value, because he will probably get a shot at this job at some point. That said, Smith is incredibly injury-prone. The whole Detroit backfield is one big injury waiting to happen. Smith can post very good numbers in spurts.
123	44	Ronnie Hillman	RB	DEN	7	We like him plenty for the long term, but HC John Fox is not big on rookie tailbacks and has a long history of sticking with veterans, so be wary of all the hype. Willis McGahee has some gas in his tank. Unless he has a shaky preseason, we like Hillman as Willis’ top handcuff option. Hillman also has solid appeal in dynasty formats. We’d go after him in the early rounds.
124	52	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	10	This guy is a sleeper. He only needs about four grabs a game to be a factor. He should easily move ahead of Driver in 2012 and will push Jones too. He’s the most electric talent in Green Bay. We like him as a handcuff to Jennings or Nelson, but also as a sleeper in deep leagues. He’s also a great guy to add if he is on the trade block in long term formats. His day is coming.
125	12	Tony Gonzalez	TE	ATL	7	He gets by on guile and smarts these days but he still gets by. No longer the focus of opposing safeties with White and Jones drawing extra defenders, Gonzo has an easier job. He’s still a solid player and he should put up light TE1 numbers or high end TE2 numbers. We’re not targeting him per se, but he can help you if you miss out on the top-end guys.
126	18	Andy Dalton	QB	CIN	8	We liked Dalton’s smarts and moxie plenty in 2011 and he did not disappoint us. With the talent around him, we like his chances of remaining viable for fantasy. We see him as a very solid QB2 with some upside.
127	45	Felix Jones	RB	DAL	5	Still a nice talent, but he is clearly behind Demarco Murray. We love Felix as a handcuff option, but we don’t see him having RB3 value barring an injury to Murray.
128	46	Jacquizz Rodgers	RB	ATL	7	Rodgers is the most talented tailback in Atlanta. Of this we have no doubt. It’s a question of when and how much as far as we’re concerned. Michael Turner is on the downside and this team wants to throw. Rodgers is a much better fit for the way they want to play. We expect a 50/50 split at some point this year with Turner evolving into the goal-line back and closer’s role. Rodgers still has to do it and Jason Snelling’s touches need to be factored in as well, but we think Rodgers will have more value than he did in 2011. He should be a solid flex option in deep 12-team leagues and he’ll some some nice upside on top of that. Rodgers’ 40 times hurt his stock a bit, but he ran a lot faster at his pro day (4.47) and it’s really his quick feet that make him special anyway. He also breaks a lot of tackles for a man his size. If he can get 10+ touches a week, then he’s a viable fantasy option. This guy has some special talent.
129	53	Chad Johnson	WR	MIA	7	CJ is the best guy they have in Miami, so a bounce back is not out of the question. That said, this is not the same player from back in the day. He’s a WR3 at best in our minds and should be drafted as at best a 4th or 5th option.
130	19	Josh Freeman	QB	TB	5	Freeman is a great athlete and he’s done some good things with middling talent around him. The supporting cast has been upgraded in a
131	47	Isaiah Pead	RB	STL	9	Pead is behind Stephen Jackson, so his role in 2012 may not be much. Still, he looks like the early best bet in terms of drafting a handcuff for Jackson. Pead does just about everything well but nothing stands out in terms of measurables. We like his balance and the way he sets up would-be tacklers. He is a confident runner with NFL starter upside. He’s also having a great camp and the coaches are high on him.
132	13	Dustin Keller	TE	NYJ	9	Keller is one of the more underrated tight ends in the draft right now. He’s a solid sleeper and he can start for you if you need him to. The Purdue product has slowly improved year-to-year and if his stats can jump one more level, he’ll be a real asset. With an ADP of 158, he is very low risk.
133	14	Brent Celek	TE	PHI	7	Celek, assuming good health, is one of the better values at the position. From week six of last year, Celek was a TE1. He can start for you in 12-team leagues. Vick has finally established a solid rapport with his tight end.
134	48	Tim Hightower	RB	WAS	10	Hightower was a pedestrian talent before his injury and he fumbles too often as well. But with Mike Shanahan, you simply never say never, so Hightower is a guy to watch in August.
135	49	Evan Royster	RB	WAS	10	Royster is a guy we like as we said last August and he looked great in limited snaps as a rookie. Our money is on Roy Helu as we like him even more, but Royster will produce if given the snaps. He is a player to watch right now for sure. This space will be updated a lot in August as Washington’s backfield is completely wide open.
136	50	Bernard Scott	RB	CIN	8	BJGE is the man with the contract, but we expect Scott’s more elusive abilities will earn him a solid sized role. That makes Scott the better value in our opinion. The Law Firm’s days of drafting behind Brady and company are over. We doubt his ability to make enough yards on his own. Scott may end up having flex value or more in larger leagues at some point this year.
137	15	Owen Daniels	TE	HOU	8	Here’s a potential bargain. He should be all the way back from his 2010 ACL injury and he is slated to have a healthy QB and a healthy Andre Johnson to stress the safeties. Daniels could be a very nice late grab if you miss out in the tight end run.
138	51	Mikel Leshoure	RB	DET	5	Coming back from injury, Leshoure is already nursing a hamstring and missing time. This player is as much myth as fact. Of course, he has a chance to be the primary back in the Lions’ offense and that should get anybody’s attention. Based on the players the Lions have at the position, the most likely outcome is a revolving door at tailback. That being said, the guy in the game will post nice stats. Leshoure is a guy we need to see in preseason games before we buy into him. We’re waiting.
139	52	Lamar Miller	RB	MIA	7	Miller is a player with immediate upside for a host of reasons. Our early inclination is that he is the best bet to use as a handcuff for Reggie Bush, but there’s more. Miller has size and speed and he looks like a legit NFL bell-cow back. Reggie Bush may not be able to hold him off for long. Barring an injury, Miller is a future household name for fantasy footballers. Get him now in long term leagues. He should be rostered in all but the smallest redraft formats.
140	53	Jonathan Dwyer	RB	PIT	4	Dwyer is a player with far more upside than he is getting credit for. He’s got the build and skill-set of a feature back and he is in the best shape of his career if you listen to the Steelers’ coaching staff. As we told you last year, Dwyer has the skills to be a primary back while Isaac Redman does not. We expect this kid to make a dent this year. He should be owned in all leagues. He’s a big tough runner who makes yards after contact and who can run away from linebackers.
141	16	Heath Miller	TE	PIT	4	Miller is said to be in for an increased role in the Steelers’ new offense led by new OC Todd Haley. We’re not jumping with both feet, but Miller certainly has the talent for the increased role and with improvements to the OL, Pitt can certainly change Miller’s deployments if they so choose. He’s a very solid value and is not currently being taken among the top twenty players at the position. That will change as we near the season, but Miller will remain a value in deeper formats.
142	54	Shane Vereen	RB	NE	9	So far, it sounds like Ridley is the back out in front of the NE backfield competition. That being said, Bill Belichick has been throwing fantasy GMs curves for years now, so don’t forget about Vereen, who was drafted ahead of Ridley and who has some skills of his own. This is a backfield we’ll be watching for you over the next month.
143	55	LeGarrette Blount	RB	TB	5	We view Blount as a mandatory handcuff if you invest in rookie Doug Martin, but we’re not predicting much more than flex value for Blount in 2012. In fact, if he doesn’t impress the new coaches, he could be a strict backup. Martin is going to be the guy to own in Tampa--he is that good.
144	54	Laurent Robinson	WR	JAC	6	Laurent has always been a good player. He finally had a nice run of health last year and got some playing time in a legit offense. He’s now found a home in Jacksonville where his value will be tied to the development of Blaine Gabbert and to his own continued health. We like him as a WR5 with upside.
145	17	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	11	We are pretty high on Rudolph. He’s a good receiving tight end and he should get a lot of looks in Minny this year. He looks like he has a chance to be the next guy after Harvin on the target totem pole. He’s a good red zone receiver and he fights for the ball. He’s one of the best ways to fill your tight end spot if you miss out on the tight end run and you can get him late.
146	18	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	6	Olsen is a solid sleeper at a deep position. His 2011 season was negatively impacted by a turf toe injury and we like his chances of shining in 2012 if he can get past that situation. He played through it, so we like his chances. Olsen is a nice upside play as a backup TE with starter’s potential.
147	19	Coby Fleener	TE	IND	4	Fleener has a lot of advantages as he has landed on a team with his college QB. We see some flaws in his game, but he also has some obvious strengths. He’s worth a look later on in redrafts and he’s certainly a potential boon for dynasty leaguers. However, it’s hard to predict much about how things will unfold in Indy with so much upheaval in such a shot span of time. He’s certainly the most valuable rookie tight end.
148	20	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	4	His name is ironic, ‘cause it’s not luck that got Andrew taken ahead of RGIII. This guy has it all, and that includes the required skills from the neck-up. He’s unlikely to be a fantasy monster out of the gate as Griffin may be, but over the course of his career, he will be very good. Take him in Dynasty drafts right behind RGIII. He has the head, the feet, and the arm and he is very close to being NFL-ready. Frankly, we are more concerned with his coaches and teammates that we are with Luck himself. We think he’s a QB2 as a rookie with a little upside. He should be taken in most redrafts.
149	56	Pierre Thomas	RB	NO	6	He always gets his touches, but he doesn’t get enough to be viable as a flex option in 12-team leagues. Thomas is a bench guy you can use to get through the byes. He needs an injury to another Saints back to become a legit option for fantasy purposes.
150	57	Taiwan Jones	RB	OAK	5	We only saw glimpses of what he can do in 2011. Jones is a playmaker of the highest order and we still expect good things. He’s a value right now. He’s not being drafted at all in smaller leagues. Very underrated and starter Darren McFadden is highly injury prone.
151	58	Kendall Hunter	RB	SF	9	Hunter is a very good back, but there is a ton of competition in the SF backfield, so don’t go too crazy unless they call Hunter the clear number two, which they might. right now, there is no clear handcuff for Frank Gore and there may not be one when you draft.
152	59	Rashard Mendenhall	RB	PIT	4	It’s all about when he gets back and how close he can get to his old form. We have our doubts about Mendy, who was not running with his old abandon even before he went down. We’re not going out of our way to draft him.
153	55	Mario Manningham	WR	SF	9	Manningham’s value is tied to his health and Randy Moss’ heart. We have our doubts about both, but a healthy Manningham has produced solid stats, so he is worth drafting in most formats. We are concerned about him leaving a very good QB for a less than good one. His upside is not what it was as long as Smith remains under center in Frisco. There is also some quality youth in SF that could be nipping at MM’s heels sooner rather than later. We see him as their current and long term third receiver.
154	56	Golden Tate	WR	SEA	11	This is a big year for Golden. He’s running with the starters and he’s got an improved quarterback situation with quality depth versus last year’s mess. Tate is worth a late flier in smaller leagues and a great camp could send him shooting up boards. We’ll see. Our opinion of Tate is high. He’s a player we’ll target unless he gets too high in terms of his ADP. He’s a legitimate play-maker with good toughness and serious pad speed. It’s all about learning the nuances of the NFL game and we think this is the year we see that.
155	57	Leonard Hankerson	WR	WAS	10	We told you last year about Hankerson... “The Miami product has all the physical traits we look for in terms of size and speed. He’s been well coached and runs solid routes and can go get the ball. We like him a lot for the long term and he is a player to own in dynasty. As far as redrafts go, he is a deep sleeper.” That’s pretty much where we are now. He showed what he could do before his injury and he appears to be full go for 2012. Eventually, we expect Hankerson and Pierre Garcon to be the guys on the outside for RGIII. Hankerson is a nice sleeper in deep leagues and a guy to watch in all formats. Josh Morgan is just a journeyman. A solid one, but still a journeyman.
156	58	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	PIT	4	Obviously, his value has a lot to do with what happens with Mike Wallace’s situation. If Wallace holds out or is dealt, Sanders becomes a very interesting player with WR3 potential.
157	59	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	10	Larry Fitzgerald’s days of being the sole focus of the opposing defense are numbered. Floyd has more natural ability than Anquan ever had, and we love Boldin. Physically, Floyd might be the best receiver in the draft. He has size and speed and all the things you look for in a top flight receiving prospect. He’s also a bad man after the catch. In Arizona, he will never see top corners as those guys are fully dedicated to dealing with Fitz. The downside with Floyd relates to his off-field problems. If Fitz can take this kid under his wing, we expect great things and we expect them quickly. Floyd is a no-brainer in long term formats and he’s a WR3 or better as soon as he starts for redraft leagues.
158	60	Vincent Brown	WR	SD	7	The Chargers brought in Robert Meachem, otherwise, we’d be tooting Brown’s horn (hey now) and calling him a great WR3 sleeper. As it stand, Brown is worth owning in bigger leagues as both Meachem and Malcom Floyd are injury prone guys. Additionally, Antonio Gates, as well as he’s moving right now, has been hurt a lot in recent years. An injury to Gates also opens up opportunity for Brown. Rivers like shim and they looked good as a connection in 2011, so keep tabs on Brown in 2012.
159	61	Danny Amendola	WR	STL	9	Obviously, he’s been a PPR hero at times, but it is hard to figure what his role in a new offense is going to be. We expect that he’ll be given first crack at the job in the slot and we like him in Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, but there are other talents around now. Greg Slas will nip at Amedolas’ heels and more balls should be thrown to the outside now. The little man’s ADP of 153 is a little rich for us unless it’s a PPR league.
160	20	Marcedes Lewis	TE	JAC	6	If Gabbert settles down, the big man could rebound nicely from a bad 2011. He’s a nice depth player if you need help at tight end. This guy was a TE1 at the end of 2010 and he still has the same skill set.
161	21	Christian Ponder	QB	MIN	11	Ponder is a player we really like, but his fantasy value will probably take a while to catch up to his NFL value. We have little doubt that he belongs as an NFL starter. He sees the field well and can make most of the throws. He’s mobile and very smart with good leadership attributes. The big question for Ponder is, can he take the beatings? Here, we have some doubts. All this being said, we think the Vikes’ QB is underrated for fantasy this year. With a full season under his belt and an improved supporting cast, we think he can be a viable QB2 for you and you can get him dirt cheap.
162	21	Ed Dickson	TE	BAL	8	With the injury to Dennis Pitta, Dickson has a chance to get going early. He’s certainly a stop gap talent for the early going if you somehow get shut out at tight end during the draft. Dickson has the talent to expand his stats this year, but it seems like a 50/50 proposition to us. He’s a late flier with some upside, but Baltimore has upped its receiving talent the last two years, so there’s more competition for targets.
163	62	Stephen Hill	WR	NYJ	9	Here’s a very interesting player. In the right scheme and on the right team, we’d be very excited about Mr. Hill. However, this is the Jets. The QB leaves much to be desired and the potential next-in-line at the position (Tebow) is more likely to ask for a block than to throw you the pill. So Hill has a few external problems. What Hill has is great size combined with phenomenal speed. He is a poor man’s Megatron.
164	63	James Jones	WR	GB	10	Jones is sort of the Devery henderson of Green Bay. He’s very talented and has the eye of the QB, but drops too many passes to get to the next level. Jones should be the 4th option though he could be the 3rd for awhile depending on how quickly Randall Cobb develops. Jones is not draftable outside of larger leagues.
165	64	Austin Collie	WR	IND	4	Collie has some ability as he has shown, but we’re not targeting him due to his head injuries. He’s just too high risk and he no longer has the Manning-upside. We like the Colts’ young receivers to the point where we think Collie is at risk even if he stays healthy. Brazill and Hilton are talented guys with healthy coconuts.
166	1	San Francisco 49ers	DEF	SF	9	Harbaugh has this whole team playing tough disciplined football. We like them to play much the way they played in 2011.
167	66	Nate Washington	WR	TEN	11	Nate has really improved his game year-to-year but there’s a lot of talent in town now, so we think he’s in line for a target reduction. Draft him as a WR5.
168	60	Robert Turbin	RB	SEA	11	This guy has the look of a feature back, and that is worth noting when you play behind the time bomb known as Marshawn Lynch. Turbin, along with Leon Washington, are the players to look at as far as snaps behind Lynch go, but we’d bet on Turbin being the more valuable handcuff option. He is a very good add in dynasty and long term formats. He has the size/speed you look for with a low center of gravity. He’s an NFL running back as far as ability goes.
169	61	Mike Goodson	RB	OAK	5	Goodson will have to prove he can be the same player in a new system, but he has a lot of fantasy appeal as he is in a backfield led by the most injury-prone starter in the NFL. We think Taiwan Jones is very under-the-radar, but we still can’t discount Goodson, who has looked good in limited opportunities over the years. This is a situation to watch in August for sure.
170	22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	QB	BUF	8	Fitzpatrick has peaked as far as fantasy value goes. His weapons are ok, but the book is out and teams have learned how to play him. This guy is smart and he can be a winner, but we do not see great fantasy production. He is strictly a fantasy backup and not one we are targeting.
171	23	Alex Smith	QB	SF	9	Smith needs to raise his game or risk being replaced. Both of the youngsters in Frisco (Kaepernick and Joshson) have more talent. We expect Smith to keep the job for as long as he is winning, so he’s the guy to draft for now. He’s a QB2.
172	1	David Akers	K	SF	9	Our top ranked kicker.
173	24	Jake Locker	QB	TEN	11	Locker is interesting as we love foot-points from QBs in fantasy, but he needs to win the job and that’s going to require a leap of faith from the coaching staff. Matt Hasselbeck can still play for sure and if they really want to roll with Locker, they might consider trading the ex-Seahawk to a team like Miami or
174	25	Matt Hasselbeck	QB	TEN	11	He’s got solid QB2 value if he starts, but we won’t know that for a few weeks as Tenn wants to give Jake Locker a good look. We’ll keep an eye on this, but right now, look elsewhere for a QB2.
175	26	Sam Bradford	QB	STL	9	Bradford was never one of our guys and he regressed terribly in 2011, but it’s hard to put much blame on the player as his team melted around him. Now he has a new coaching staff and some very nice new weapons, so there’s fresh hope. Bradford is a smart guy and he can throw the ball, so he’s worth a late pick in deeper leagues, but he’s not a guy we’re targeting right now.
176	27	John Skelton	QB	ARI	10	We’re rooting for Skelton as we like him better than Kolb, but both men should be better this year with all the new toys they’ve added in Arizona the last two years. They can’t catch a break with their tailbacks, but we think they’ll chuck it pretty good in 2012. Skelton, if he starts, is worth owning in 12-team leagues.
177	67	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	11	Baldwin is a useful depth player, but we see him as a slot guy and so do the Seahawks, so we’re valuing him that way. He’s a WR5 for fantasy purposes.
178	28	Kevin Kolb	QB	ARI	10	Kolb will be viable is he starts. Right now, we think he’ll hang on for at least the start of the season. He’s no more than a QB2 and perhaps less than that.
179	65	Deion Branch	WR	NE	9	Branch looked like he lost a step in 2011, but he’s a longtime favorite of Brady’s so he still has a chance to be a factor. As far as being much of a fantasy factor goes, we are betting against it, but one injury could change that. For now, he is the 5th or 6th option in the NE passing game.
180	62	Montario Hardesty	RB	CLE	10	He’s our current choice as a handcuff to Trent Richardson. It’s a good role for him as he is not durable. He could have nice value as a fill-in for Richardson.
181	2	New York Jets	DEF	NYJ	9	We like the Jets D more than we did heading into 2011. They have made some significant personnel upgrades and we expect a better natural pass rush as they play more 4-3 in 2012. They have a trio of ball-hawking corners, so that pass rush, if it materializes, could really up the fantasy scoring potential of this unit.
182	63	Bernard Pierce	RB	BAL	8	Pierce has a nice size/speed combo. We like him a lot. He has a pro body and good fundamentals. BP runs with power and has nice lateral ability for a man his size. We see him as having the inside track to be the backup to Ray Rice. The Ravens can still function with Pierce as their tailback. He’d make for a worthy handcuff based on what we’ve seen from him.
183	22	Dennis Pitta	TE	BAL	8	Pitta is out for a month or more with a broken hand. Leave him undrafted for now, but he could be a solution in deeper leagues when he returns. We liked his play at the end of last year. Flacco trusts him. Pitta is developing into a solid NFL receiver.
184	2	Stephen Gostkowski	K	NE	9	One of the few kickers worth taking somewhat early.
185	68	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	6	We like his size and talent, but he has a ways to go developmentally. He’ll fight for snaps as a rookie, but his long term ceiling is very high.
186	69	Chris Givens	WR	STL	9	Givens can fly and like his fellow rookie, Brian Quick, he should start if he has a solid camp. The Rams made a nice pair of selections here ... substantively better than the players they’ve taken over the last few years. Givens is a player to watch this August.
187	70	Mohamed Sanu	WR	CIN	8	Sanu has a shot to start and we like him some. He has good size and he is multi-skilled. He lined up as a tailback and ran the wildcat as well. There is some serious discrepancy as to his actual sped, which looks mediocre on film though not nearly as bad as the 4.67 he clocked at the combine. The proof will be in camp for Sanu. If he starts opposite AJ Green, he will be an intriguing player.
188	71	AJ Jenkins	WR	SF	9	Sleeper alert! Jenkins may fly under the radar due to the bigger names in Frisco, but at the end of the year, this could be the best receiver in town. Then again, if Moss finds the fountain of youth and Mario Manningham proves to fully healthy, he could end up watching and learning for most of the year. He has great speed and solid size to go with it. We like his hands.
189	64	Javon Ringer	RB	TEN	11	If you draft CJ, then add Ringer late and you have some solid insurance should 4.24 pull a hammy or what have you.
190	72	Nate Burleson	WR	DET	5	He’s a forgotten man, but he’ll be involved week to week.
191	90	Andre Roberts	WR	ARI	10	Roberts has the early inside track on the starting job opposite Fitzgerald, but unless rookie stud Michael Floyd really flops, Roberts is just a placeholder and not a stable commodity.
192	65	Joe McKnight	RB	NYJ	9	Sleeper alert. Country Joe has some very useful physical tools. It’s getting the mental part of the game down that continues to vex him. If the light comes on, JM has the ability to make Shonn Greene a role player. The Jets could be one of the deepest committee backfields going if that happens. Don’t forget about Tebow. If that scenario comes to pass, McKnight, being the home run hitter of the group, might be the most valuable. Now, before we get too carried away here, the USC product still has a lot of convincing to do as far as the Jets’ coaching staff goes and he is learning a new offense under Tony Sparano. We’ll be on top of this for sure as we are based in the Big Apple and in Boston.
193	73	Josh Gordon	WR	CLE	10	Yet another very talented rookie receiver. Gordon landed in Cleveland as a supplemental pick and he gives them yet another big talented target after landing Greg Little last year. The Browns now have a wonderful young offensive core. Gordon has significant red flags for off-field problems and he did not play football in 2011. That being said, he has the talent to be a very good NFL receiver. He’s a very worthwhile add in dynasty and long term formats and if he somehow starts this year, he makes for a nice late round flier in big redraft leagues.
194	74	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	4	Small. That’s the only possible complaint we can come up with on TY Hilton. He is a bit small and he comes from a small school. Ok, now that we’ve got that out of the way ... this kid can flat-out play. He runs like the wind and makes all the catches. He’s dynamite after the catch and has a great feel for the game. We think he shines in Indy with Luck and company. We also like his chances as far as challenging Austin Collie for the starting job. He needs a big camp to be a factor in typical redrafts, but we’d grab him in long term leagues and dynasty. This guy has DeSean Jackson-like potential without the hype. Yeah, I said it.
195	75	Keshawn Martin	WR	HOU	8	Keshawn Martin is one of our favorite receivers in this NFL draft. He can flat-out play. He might be this year’s Denarius Moore in that we simply cannot comprehend how he stayed on the board as long as he did. Sadly, he has more talent in his way in Houston than Moore did in Oakland. The Spartans were a running team which did not help him statistically. His measurables are just good and not great, but the guy can play the game. Houston’s roster is deep, but we expect Martin to shine eventually. We are targeting him in deep leagues and long term formats. It may not happen right away, but we think he is a near lock to have a bright career.
196	76	Damian Williams	WR	TEN	11	He is a solid talent and he is in the mix for snaps, but the arrival of rookie Kendall Wright puts a damper on what we felt could be a breakout year. Williams is underrated, but if Kenny Britt is healthy, he is number four on the totem pole. If Britt’s implosion continues, Williams is closer to meaningful stats. We’ll see how it plays out. He’s a guy to watch.
197	77	Jerome Simpson	WR	MIN	11	He is probably a starter when he returns from his 3-game suspension. He has some late-round appeal, but he is also a serious fool, so save him for deeper formats.
198	3	Sebastian Janikowski	K	OAK	5	We like Sea Bass this year as a top option.
199	3	Green Bay Packers	DEF	GB	10	The Pack’s offense should set up plenty of sack and pick opportunities. We expect a bounce back.
200	4	Philadelphia Eagles	DEF	PHI	7	We like their talent on defense and we expect them to play with plenty of leads.